Defence Analytical Services and Advice Ministry of Defence

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Defence Analytical Services and AdviceMinistry
of Defence

• Forecasting Armed Forces manpower
• Gary Cottrill and Ditch Boultbee

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Presentation content

1. Introduction to DASA.
2. DASAs modelling portfolio.
3. What is forecasting?
4. Deterministic v Stochastic methodologies.
5. RAF requirements for an untrained strength model.
6. Demonstration of the RAF untrained model.

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Who are DASA?

• Provide the MoD with economic, statistical and
  related management information, advice and
  research.
• Home to MoD heads of profession for statistics
  and economics.
• Experienced in developing manpower models.
• Historically reliant on Excel / VBA. Currently
  redeveloping models using Arena simulation
  software.

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Examples of current modelling activities

• RAF untrained forecasting
• Short and long term forecasts for the Naval
  Service, Army and RAF
• Structural modelling of the Naval Service, Army
  and RAF
• Naval Service econometric modelling of liability
• Civilian workforce reductions modelling

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Forecasting

• A definition
• The process of analysing current and historical
  data to
• determine future trends.
• Requirements
• Historical data from which to build profiles.
• Subject matter experts (of the process being
  modelled) who can complement the data with
  assumptions.
• Technical experts for model build.

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Deterministic v Stochastic methodologies

• Deterministic
• Variables uniquely determined by parameters in
  the model.
• Stochastic models
• Randomness is present, variables are described by
  probability distributions.

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RAF untrained model requirements

• How many personnel are becoming trained, by
  branch?
• Target driven and input driven.
• Model what if scenarios e.g. changing course
  lengths/capacities
• To identify
• Training wastage
• Course usage
• Waiting times
• Bottlenecks

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• RAF Untrained model A demonstration of the use
• of Arena software in manpower planning
• Model Introduction / General overview
• Phase 1 training example
• Questions?

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• Contact details
• Gary Cottrill 020 721 80307
• gary.cottrill_at_dasa.mod.uk
• Ditch Boultbee 020 721 85215
• ditch.boultbee_at_dasa.mod.uk