The New MEAP

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The New MEAP MME CUT SCORES

• On Track to Career College Ready

Questions may be submitted via the chat feature
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Bruce R. Fay, PhD Assessment/Evaluation
Consultant
Wayne RESA
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What We Know

• New cut scores approved by SBE in Sept. 2011
• Major proficiency category cut scores only for
  MEAP (not MEAP-Access) and MME only
• MI-Access cut scores will not be changed
• New cut scores in effect for 2011-12 SY tests
• Methodology described in the SBE item
• Did NOT use standard setting panels
• Purely statistical, but they
• Used several different methods, and
• Chose the results that made the most sense

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What We Know 2

• They basically replicated and validated the 2005
  ACT College Readiness Benchmark Study using only
• Michigan students (MME scores)
• Michigan post-secondary public institutions
  (221537)
• Defined success as a 0.50 probability of
  earning a B or better in the corresponding
  course(s), which turns out to be a 0.75
  probability of a C or better
• Proficient cut corresponds to this definition
• Advanced cut is p 2/3rds,
• Partially Proficient cut is p 1/3rd

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What We Know 3

• Linked MME results (11th grade) to success in
  first semester freshman credit-bearing
  (non-remedial) college courses for one (1) cohort
  of students
• Linked MME to grade 3 9 MEAP results, such that
• Proficiency in grade X tends to predict
  proficiency at the next tested grade level, and
• Lack of proficiency in grade X tends to predict
  lack of proficiency in the next tested grade
  level

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What We Know 4

• Attempted to maximize classification consistency
  (reliability of classifications)
• As with the earlier ACT study, there will still
  be error in these classifications/predictions
• Historical re-calculations (retrospective look at
  data) available to
• Schools Oct. 31 (BAA secure site, embargoed)
• Public Nov. 3 (MI SCHOOL DATA website)

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What We Dont Know (yet)

• Minor cut scores within proficiency categories
  needed to calculate performance level change
• How/when these will be determined (it will be
  done)
• How MDE will present this to the press/public
  when the results come out for the Fall 2011 MEAP
  tests
• New MEAP-Access cut scores (these may/will change
  as part of standard-setting this winter)
• ?

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What Does It Mean To Be

• Career College Ready?
• A Short Quiz

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Which student is College-Ready According to ACT?
To read the chart Amys ACT English score was
20 her math score was 22 her reading score was
21 her science score was 24 and her ACT
Composite was 22.
Percent of students with same composite score
who met all 4 ACT College-Ready Benchmarks.
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What you have to know to figure it out
Michigan is one of a handful of states where 100
of students take the ACT.
Yes, Amy, the student with the lowest ACT
Composite, is the only student who ACT considers
College-Ready. Eve, with her ACT Composite
score of 30, is not considered College-Ready.
About 37 of students with an ACT Composite
score of 24 are College-Ready.
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Which College Courses Were Used To Establish
Michigans New Cut Scores?

• Mathematics College Algebra
• Reading Courses identified by 4-year
  universities Reading-heavy courses such as
  entry-level literature, history, philosophy, or
  psychology for 2-year universities
• Science Courses identified by 4-year
  universities Entry level biology, chemistry,
  physics, or geology for 2-year universities
• Social Studies Courses identified by 4-year
  universities Entry level history, geography, or
  economics for 2-year universities

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Which Students Were Used?

• For the HSCollege link, only students who
• Had valid MME scores (spring 2009)
• Attended one of 37 MI post-secondary public
  schools
• Enrolled in one or more of the identified courses
  as first semester freshman (2010-11 SY)
• Student taking more advanced mathematics courses,
  such as calculus for example, were NOT included
  in the study calculations.
• If they had been, the cut scores would have been
  even higher

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Another View of College Ready (ACT CCR)
221,606 ways that ACT subject area subscores can
be combined to produce ACT composite
scores 153,776 NOT ACT CCR 67,830 are ACT
CCR An ACT composite score of 28 is about
equally likely to be considered CCR or
not National and Michigan average composite
score for Class of 2010 below left (ACT does not
use composite scores in determining if a student
is college ready)
CO 2010 English Math Reading Science Composite
National 20.5 21.0 21.3 20.9 21.0
Michigan 18.9 19.7 19.7 19.9 19.7
Class of 2010 is primarily spring 2009 retakes
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Actual Data
3559 students - 1434 ARE CCR - 2125 NOT
CCR Less than 50 CCR at composite score of
24 More than 50 CCR at composite score of 25
CO 2010 English Math Reading Science Composite
National 20.5 21.0 21.3 20.9 21.0
Michigan 18.9 19.7 19.7 19.9 19.7
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The New Cut Scores
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Mathematics Cut Scores
Assessment Grade Partially Proficient Proficient Advanced
MME 11 1093 1116 1138
MEAP 8 809 830 865
MEAP 7 714 731 776
MEAP 6 614 629 675
MEAP 5 516 531 584
MEAP 4 423 434 470
MEAP 3 322 336 371
Old proficient cut score was grade level x 100
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Reading Cut Scores
Assessment Grade Partially Proficient Proficient Advanced
MME 11 1081 1108 1141
MEAP 8 796 818 853
MEAP 7 698 721 760
MEAP 6 602 619 653
MEAP 5 501 521 565
MEAP 4 395 419 478
MEAP 3 301 324 634
Old proficient cut score was grade level x 100
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Science Cut Scores
Assessment Grade Partially Proficient Proficient Advanced
MME 11 1106 1126 1144
MEAP 8 826 845 863
MEAP 5 526 553 567
Old proficient cut score was grade level x 100
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Social Studies Cut Scores
Assessment Grade Partially Proficient Proficient Advanced
MME 11 1097 1129 1158
MEAP 9 899 928 960
MEAP 6 593 625 649
Old proficient cut score was grade level x 100
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What About Writing?

• Since the writing tests are relatively new, the
  cut scores were already set at a career and
  college ready level, and did not need to be
  reset.
• Proficient remains at Grade Level 100

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Approximate correct needed to be proficient on
MME / MEAP Old vs. New
Test Grade Math Old Math New Rdg Old Rdg New Sci Old Sci New SS Old SS New
MME 11 42 58 51 57 46 65 39 63
MEAP 9 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 39 64
MEAP 8 35 59 45 64 40 75 n/a n/a
MEAP 7 32 60 52 70 n/a n/a n/a n/a
MEAP 6 35 58 42 61 n/a n/a 43 66
MEAP 5 39 61 45 64 48 83 n/a n/a
MEAP 4 29 58 45 64 n/a n/a n/a n/a
MEAP 3 34 72 45 67 n/a n/a n/a n/a
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What Does This Mean?

• On MME, the following probabilities of earning a
  B or better in the associated college class(es)
• Advanced at least 2/3
• Proficient 1/2 to 2/3
• Partially Proficient lt 1/3
• On MEAP, the degree to which a student is likely
  on track to proficiency in the next tested
  grade in that subject.
• Rememberthe tests themselves have not changed
  the distribution of scale scores for the 2011-12
  test cycle will be similar to the 2010-11 test
  cycle.

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New Cut Scores Applied To

• Old (2010-2011) Test Results

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State of Michigan Retrospective Proficiency Rates
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Implications?

• Proficiency rates going forward will drop
• Schools / students should still be able to see
  relative changes in performance (due to
  historical recalculation)
• AYP may not be an issue if MDE is successful in
  obtaining the ESEA Flexibility (NCLB waivers)
  from USED (a whole separate issue)
• Accreditation will not be effected (much) if/when
  MSA is implemented due to the use of ranking
  calculations that mostly do not depend on
  proficiency (cut scores)

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Final Thoughts 1

• The tests have not changed
• The distribution of scale scores for 2011-12 will
  be similar to the distribution for 2010-11
• Cut Scores are not designed in to the tests they
  are
• Added later by a separate standard-setting
  process
• After the test has been administered
• Represent a judgment to as to what level of
  performance is considered good enough to meet
  some definition
• There is no a priori correct cut score

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Final Thoughts 2

• Schools will continue to use state test results,
  in conjunction with other information, to monitor
  and evaluate the academic achievement of their
  students and examine the effectiveness of
  curriculum and instruction.
• Parents will continue to see reports that show
  the number of items their student answered
  correctly and the associated scale score.

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Final Thoughts 3

• If we were misleading students and parents about
  college readiness before, the new cut scores do
  not necessarily fix that and we may be more
  likely to suggest to a student that they are not
  ready when they have a real chance at success
• College readiness, for each student, depends on
  the unique interaction of their choices of
  college and program of study with their personal
  attributes, such as maturity, work habits,
  financial support, and motivation to succeed
• (see David T. Conley, PhD, Professor, Univ of
  Oregon, for research in this area)

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Final Thoughts 4

• For some students, Partially Proficient High
  may be adequate
• For others, Advanced Mid, or even Advanced
  High may be a more appropriate goal
• In spite of MDEs statistical methodology, we
  dont know how predictive these new cut scores
  will be of college success going forward only
  time data will tell
• Being career college ready is a complex issue
  that can not be captured in a few test scores

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Questions?

• Bruce R. Fay, PhD
• Assessment / Evaluation Consultant
• FayB_at_resa.net
• 734.334.1384