Institutional Design: Electoral Systems Plan for Today

1
Institutional Design Electoral SystemsPlan
for Today

1. Understand the characteristics and democratic
   consequences of three basic types of electoral
   systems.
2. Understand other governance consequences of
   electoral systems.
3. Link electoral systems to party system outcomes.

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Proportional Representation (PR) Systems

• Closed-List PR (S. Africa, Israel, most PR
  systems)
• Cast 1 vote for 1 party
• Party determines rank order of candidates to
  receive seats.
• Open-List PR (Brazil, Sri Lanka, Poland, Sweden)
• Voters may vote for candidates within parties
  (sometimes multiple votes allowed).
• Candidates enter legislature in order based on
  votes received.

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Proportional Representation (PR) Systems

• Closed-List PR
• Strengthens parties.
• Increases minority/ women representation.
• Simple to understand.
• Open-List PR
• Increases voter choice.
• Often fragments parties.

4
Proportional Representation (PR) Systems

• Extreme PR
• Moderate PR
• Some seats chosen by plurality method
• Vote thresholds for seats
• Country split into multiple districts

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Proportional Representation (PR) Systems

• Extreme PR
• Italy (pre-1994), Israel, Netherlands, Denmark
• Moderate PR
• Germany, New Zealand, Russia, Sweden, Norway,
  Belgium, probably South Africa

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Proportional Representation (PR) Systems

• How the system rates
• Proportionality Excellent

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Hypothetical Election, Country XScenario 1
Red 45 Blue 55 Red 45 Blue 55 Red 45 Blue 55 Red 45 Blue 55 Red 45 Blue 55
Red 45 Blue 55 Red 45 Blue 55 Red 45 Blue 55 Red 45 Blue 55 Red 45 Blue 55
Red 45 Blue 55 Red 45 Blue 55 Red 45 Blue 55 Red 45 Blue 55 Red 45 Blue 55
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Results of Scenario 1 with Plurality System

• Overall percentage of national vote
• Red Party 45
• Blue Party 55
• Blue Party wins 100 of seats in the legislature

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Results of Scenario 1 with PR System

• Overall percentage of national vote
• Red Party 45
• Blue Party 55
• Red Party wins 45 of seats
• Blue Party wins 55 of seats

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Hypothetical Election, Country XScenario 2
Red 85 Blue 15 Red 85 Blue 15 Red 85 Blue 15 Red 85 Blue 15 Red 15 Blue 85
Red 45 Blue 55 Red 45 Blue 55 Red 45 Blue 55 Red 45 Blue 55 Red 15 Blue 85
Red 45 Blue 55 Red 45 Blue 55 Red 45 Blue 55 Red 45 Blue 55 Red 15 Blue 85
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Results of Scenario 2 with Plurality System

• Overall percentage of national vote
• Red Party 50
• Blue Party 50
• Red Party wins 27 (4/15) seats
• Blue Party wins 73 (11/15) of seats

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Results of Scenario 2 with PR System

• Overall percentage of national vote
• Red Party 50
• Blue Party 50
• Red Party wins 50 of seats
• Blue Party wins 50 of seats

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Hypothetical Election, Country XScenario 3
Red 45 Blue 35 White 20 Red 45 Blue 35 White 20 Red 45 Blue 35 White 20 Red 45 Blue 35 White 20 Red 45 Blue 35 White 20
Red 45 Blue 35 White 20 Red 45 Blue 35 White 20 Red 45 Blue 35 White 20 Red 45 Blue 35 White 20 Red 45 Blue 35 White 20
Red 45 Blue 35 White 20 Red 45 Blue 35 White 20 Red 45 Blue 35 White 20 Red 45 Blue 35 White 20 Red 45 Blue 35 White 20
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Results of Scenario 3 with Plurality System

• Overall percentage of national vote
• Red Party 45
• Blue Party 35
• White Party 20
• Red Party wins 100 of seats in the legislature

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Results of Scenario 3 with PR System

• Overall percentage of national vote
• Red Party 45
• Blue Party 35
• White Party 20
• Red Party wins 45 of seats
• Blue Party wins 35 of seats
• White Party wins 20 of seats

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Hypothetical Election, Country XScenario 4
Red 20 Blue 35 White 45 Red 20 Blue 35 White 45 Red 20 Blue 35 White 45 Red 45 Blue 35 White 20 Red 45 Blue 35 White 20
Red 45 Blue 35 White 20 Red 45 Blue 35 White 20 Red 45 Blue 35 White 20 Red 45 Blue 35 White 20 Red 45 Blue 35 White 20
Red 45 Blue 35 White 20 Red 45 Blue 35 White 20 Red 45 Blue 35 White 20 Red 45 Blue 35 White 20 Red 45 Blue 35 White 20
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Implications of Examples in Plurality Systems

• Voter support for small parties underrepresented
  in seats.
• Best for small parties to focus on winning
  support in select regions.
• Majority governments the norm.

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Canadian Federal Election Results 2008
(Preliminary)
Party Vote Seats ( Seats)
Conservative 37.6 46.4 (143)
Liberal 26.2 24.7 (76)
Bloc Queb. 10.0 16.2 (50)
NDP 18.2 12.0 (37)
Green 6.8 0.0 (0)
Independent 0.7 0.7 (2)
Other 0.5 0.0 (0)
Source Elections Canada
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Canadian Federal Election Results 2000
Party Vote Seats
Liberal 40.8 57.1
Alliance 25.5 21.9
Bloc Queb. 10.7 12.6
NDP 8.5 4.3
PC 12.2 4.0
Other 2.2 0.0
Source Elections Canada
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Proportional Representation (PR) Systems

• How the system rates
• Proportionality Excellent
• Voter Choice Bad (unless open list)
• Responsibility to constituency Bad (unless
  smaller districts)

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Preferential Voting Systems

• Voters indicate intensity of preferences for
  different candidates by rank-ordering them on
  ballot.

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Preferential VotingSingle Transferable Vote
(STV)

• Malta, Ireland, Australian Senate.
• More complicated system
• Parties have multiple candidates per
  constituency.
• Voters number rank order of candidate preferences.

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Preferential Voting Single Transferable Vote
(STV)

• Transferable vote
• If 1 vote is useless, vote transferred to
  next-choice candidate.
• Candidates receiving surplus votes have extra
  votes redistributed.
• If no candidate has enough 1st choice votes to be
  elected, bottom candidate dropped and votes
  redistributed.

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Preferential Voting Single Transferable Vote
(STV)

• This was the system recommended for BC by the
  recent BC Citizens Assembly.
• Referendum on question held May 17, 2005.

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Preferential Voting Single Transferable Vote
(STV)

• How the system rates
• Proportionality Excellent
• Voter Choice Excellent
• Responsibility to constituency Moderately Good

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Preferential Voting Alternative Vote

• Australian House of Reps, Fiji.
• Rank order candidates in single-member districts.
  Candidate wins through gaining majority of
  votes.
• Worse for proportionality than STV or PR.
• Better for voter choice, constituency
  representation.

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Non-Preferential Voting Single Non-Transferable
Vote

• Multiple representatives elected per
  constituency, but voters only cast 1 vote choice.
• Japan (until 1994).
• Taiwan.

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Effects of Electoral Systems on Party Systems

• Plurality systems ? 2-party systems, 1-party
  majority governments.
• PR systems ? multiparty systems, coalition
  governments.

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Effects of Electoral Systems on Other Political
Values

• Accountability Who can the public hold
  accountable for policies?
• Plurality system better.

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Effects of Electoral Systems on Other Political
Values

• Effectiveness How quickly and efficiently can
  governments make decisions?
• Plurality system better.

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Effects of Electoral Systems on Other Political
Values

• Stability How predictable is the governments
  existence?
• Plurality system better?