Generation of Historical Vulnerability Indices using a DesInventar Database

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• Generation of Historical Vulnerability Indices
  using a DesInventar Database

Julio Serje, Deepa Chavali and Sujit Mohanty
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Introduction

• Concept
• The InDisData project
• Methodology and Tool - DesInventar
• The Orissa Experience
• Qualitative results

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index (în¹dèks) noun

• plural indexes or indices (-dî-sêz)
• a. Something that serves to guide, point out, or
• otherwise facilitate reference
• b. A number derived from a formula, used
• to characterize a set of data
• Excerpted from The American Heritage
  Dictionary of the English Language, Third Edition
  1996 by Houghton Mifflin Company..

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Historical Vulnerability
Will be defined and calculated based on

• Patterns repeated periodic occurrence of losses
• Trends increasing magnitude of losses
• Impact high losses being caused by low magnitude
  events

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The InDisData Project

• A database of disasters to understand trends and
  patterns.
• A systematic geo-referenced inventory of small,
  medium and large-scale disasters for past 30
  years.
• To rationalize decision making for disaster
  preparedness, as well as providing an objective
  base for vulnerability assessment and priority
  setting.
• To support planning policy decisions for
  disaster preparedness and mitigation.

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Orissa Pilot Process

• Data collected for 30 districts and 314 blocks
  from newspapers over a period of 32 years.
• Data collected from media is compared with
  Government records.
• Institutionalization with Government for
  sustainability.
• Interpretation and analysis of the data shows
  new dimensions of risk vulnerabilities of the
  State.
• Orissa Vulnerability Analysis Report is being
  prepared in association with Center for
  Development Studies.

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DesInventar

• A methodology
• A tool
• The previous experience in Latin America

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DesInventar

• Methodology
• Disaggregation of the effects
• Geo-referenced data
• Inclusion of Small and Medium Disasters

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DesInventar
The Software Tools Stand-alone and Web-enabled
version
http//www.desinventar.org
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Preliminary Findings

• Epidemics and cyclones are the greatest causes of
  deaths
• Epidemics are highly associated with floods, but
  also occur as independent incidents.
• Fire is the greatest cause of household
  destruction, comparable to Cyclone.
• Floods affect people more than any other type of
  disaster.

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Impact on Life
Epidemics (19,963)
Cyclone (20,449)
Number of people killed in disasters in Orisa
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Impact on Property
Number of Houses Destroyed in Disasters Orissa
Cyclone (376,285)
Fire (436,212)
Floods (135485)
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Impact on Livelihood
Number of people affected
Drought(3408,999)
Cyclone(11633,140)
Flood (31395,654)
Rains (3776,359)
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Patterns floods
Total number of Victims and Affected by Floods in
Orissa
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Pattern Epidemics
People Killed by Epidemics in Orissa
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Spatial Distribution of Disasters
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Relation Floods-Epidemics
Number of reports of floods and people killed by
epidemics, 11 years, with apparently non-flood
related epidemics.
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Spatial Distribution of Floods and Epidemics
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Relation Floods-Epidemics
Number of reports in floods and people killed by
epidemics, 11 years, in 5 less-flood prone
districts.
Districts of Koraput, Kandhamal, Kalahand,
Rayadada and Gajapat
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Trend Epidemics
Ascending trend of the effects of epidemics in
Orissa.
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Trend Fire effects on Housing
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Pattern Fire Seasonal
Seasonal Variation in Fire Pattern
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Way forward

• Definition of a methodology to generate a numeric
  index based on trends, patterns and impact
• Calculation of these indices for Orissa
• Comparison of these indices against other
  vulnerability index
• Fine tuning of the whole process
• Use of the indices in Risk Assessment

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InDisData is supported by
Ministry of Home Affairs National Institute of
Disaster Management NIDM
United Nations Development Programme UNDP
The Network for Social Studies on Disaster
Prevention in Latin America
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THANK YOU