Mainstem Passage Strategies In The Columbia River System: Transportation, Spill and Flow Augmentation

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Mainstem Passage Strategies In The Columbia River
System Transportation, Spill and Flow
Augmentation

• Presented By
• Albert Giorgi, Ph.D.

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ASSIGNMENT Transportation, Spill and Flow
Augmentation

1. Update And Synthesize Information On Benefits And
   Risks
2. Identify Shortcomings, Disputes, And Critical
   Uncertainties
3. Opportunities to Reduce Uncertainty

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FOCUS

1. Information Gathered Since 1990
2. Emphasize Most Recent Analyses and Estimates

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TRANSPORTATION

• Objective of Smolt Transportation
• Offset mortality incurred during migration by
  avoiding expanses of the hydro-system.

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KEY ESTIMATES

• Survival (Smolt-to-Adult) SAR
• Survival Ratio (transport/inriver) TIR
• Delayed Transport Effects D
• Smolt Survival Inriver Vc

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CONNECTIONS

• SART/SARI ? TIR ? (TIR)(Vc) ? D
• 2/1 ? 2.0 ? (2.0) (0.5) ? 1.0
• 1.5/1 ? 1.5 ? (1.5) (0.5) ? 0.75

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INTERPRETING ESTIMATES

• Managers
• TIR gt 1.0 Transport Survival greater than
  Inriver Controls
• Analysts
• D gt 1.0 No Delayed Effects
• 1.0 gt D gt VcDelayed effects but transport
  survival greater than inriver controls
• DltVc Delayed effects severe, control survival
  greater than transport

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TIR1993-1999 (NMFS CBFWA)

• Yearling chinook
• Annual TIR Estimates
• Generally ? 1.0 at Lower Granite and Little Goose
  dams.
• Transport at Lower Monumental and McNary dams is
  questionable.

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NMFS ESTIMATES (1994-1997)
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CBFWA ESTIMATES, (1997-1999)
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HYPOTHESIS TESTS

• TIR gt 1.0 , D gtVc
• None Explicitly Conducted Yet
• Some Years, Small Sample Size (n) Produce Poor
  Precision
• Limits Statistically Defensible Conclusions

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SAR-TREND
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WILD FISH PERFORMANCE

• Difficult to Ascertain with Confidence
• Very small Sample Sizes (n) Produce Poor
  Precision

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HOMING IMPAIRMENT

• Form of Delayed Effect
• Can be reflected in SAR to Lower Granite Dam
• Evidence for impairment in some species
• Steelhead, Sockeye, and Fall Chinook
• Straying and Migration Delay
• Radio telemetry studies

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CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES

• Data Gaps
• Snake River Fall Chinook Evaluations (2002)
• Mid-Columbia Stocks at McNary Dam (2002)
• Continue Research
• Snake River Evaluations (SAR ?)
• Adult Passage (Radio tags/PIT tags)

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SPILL

• Objective of Spill
• Maximize smolt survival at dams
• Maintain acceptable water quality

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ARE SPILLWAYS THE SAFEST PASSAGE ROUTE?

• Collective information Yes
• Survival magnitude can vary by site and species
• Estimates reflecting total effects are most
  instructive

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DIRECT AND INDIRECT EFFECTS PASSAGE EFFICIENCY
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DO FLOW DEFLECTORS AFFECT SMOLT SURVIVAL?

• Typically 1-3 increase in mortality
• Depending on site and tool

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DOES SMOLT SURVIVAL VARY WITH DISCHARGE?

• At some dams
• The Dalles Dam has the most dramatic decrease in
  survival

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Survival X Spill Discharge
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SPILL EVALUATIONS(Passage Models)

• Update parameters, post-PATH
• Models are practical tools for evaluating
  different spill scenarios
• Reflect responses at population level (smolts)
• Difficult to isolate spill effects in field
  studies (Zabel et al. in press)

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INCIDENTAL EFFECTS OF SPILL

• Total Dissolved Gas (TDG)
• Adult passage

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INCIDENTAL EFFECTS

• 120 saturation target is generally achievable
  with BO spill schedule, and mid-Columbia River
  operations
• Adult Passage
• Some evidence that high spill levels may
  exacerbate delay and fallback
• But, no convincing quantitative relationships

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TDG Mid-Columbia, 2000
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CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES RESEARCH NEEDS

• Evaluate spill scenarios with updated passage
  models.
• Consider well-designed in situ experiments when
  river conditions are controllable (summer, or low
  flow)
• Clarify spill effects on adult fallback and
  migration delay.

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FLOW AUGMENTATION

• Objectives
• Increased H2O velocity (reservoirs)
• Increases smolt migration speed
• Increases reservoir survival
• Decrease H2O temperature (summer)
• Improves rearing / migratory conditions
• Increases survival (juveniles, adults

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FLOW EFFECTS ON MIGRATION SPEED

• Influential variables
• Steelhead Flow
• Sockeye Flow
• Yearling Chinook Smolt development, Flow
• Sub-yearling Chinook Flow, temp., turbidity,
  size (confounded)

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FLOW EFFECTS ON SMOLT SURVIVAL

• Yearling Chinook, 1993-2001 (NMFS)
• No apparent flow relationship
• Steelhead
• No apparent flow relationship 1993-2000
• But, pronounced decrease in survival, 2001
• Low flows and early warming implicated
• Fall Chinook
• Complex of variables implicated (confounded)
• Flow, temperature, turbidity

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CAN FLOW AUGMENTATION-

• Substantively alter estuary and ocean plume
  characteristics within a year?
• Optimize timing of ocean entry?

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Water Temperature Reduction

• Snake River Summer
• Adult steelhead, fall chinook
• Juvenile fall chinook
• lt 20º C is advantageous
• gt 20º C often occurs (Aug.- early Sept.)

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Dworshak - Cooling Effects

• 1-4º C at LGR, 0.5-1º C at IH
• Cool H2O sinks
• Deeper refugia
• Mixing at dams

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COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATIONS

• Generally lacking
• Few at best
• SOR
• 1991-1995 (BPA-funded study)
• Flow/speed/survival relationships ? evaluations

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FEATURES OF EVALUATIONS

• Document Volume and shape of FA
• Describe change in H2O velocity and temp.
• Predict change in smolt speed and survival
• Focus on key populations

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CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES RESEARCH NEEDS

• Conduct comprehensive FA evaluations through 2001
• Design experiments targeting Snake River fall
  chinook
• Manipulate Dworshak and HC
• Survival
• Continue mainstem survival monitoring

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Estimated increase in water velocity attributable
to flow augmentation springs (10 April 20 June)
and summers (21 June 31 August) 1991-1995
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Percent decrease in estimated smolt travel times
for yearling chinook using base flows. Asterisk
in 1993 indicates that the CRiSP model predicted
no change in travel time associated with flow
augmentation.
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