Simulating Police Outcomes: A Framework for Understanding Policing Strategies

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Simulating Police Outcomes A Framework for
UnderstandingPolicing Strategies

• John E. Eck
• University of Cincinnati
• Division of Criminal Justice
• Presentation at the meeting on
• Crime Hot Spots Behavioral, Computational and
  Mathematical Models
• Institute for Pure and Applied Mathematics, UCLA
• January 29 - February 2, 2007

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An Initial Thought

• ..computer simulations are actually philosophical
  thought experiments, intuition pumps, not
  empirical experiments. They systematically
  explore the implications of sets of assumptions.
• Daniel Dennett

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Barbarian Invasions and Crime

• Standard criminology is bankrupt
• A good invasion can help
• Mostly raids uncooperative, naive, and short
• Taking the easy loot
• Leaving some methods but little insight
• Need to settle, interbreed, and stay
• Welcome Barbarians!

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Introduction

• Simulating police is a subset of simulating crime
• Early simulations focused now discredited
  policing strategies
• Topics
• Police Strategies roles and effectiveness
• Simulation Framework 4 parts
• Focused Policing
• Problem-oriented Policing

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Police Strategies Evidence
Adapted from, Weisburd, D. J.E. Eck 2004 What
Can Police Do to Reduce Crime, Disorder and
Fear? The Annals of the American Academy of
Political and Social Science. 593 42-65.
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Strategies and Simulations
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4 Requirements

1. Problem/Patterns (change) are outputs
2. Error modeling must be built in
3. Standard policing part of background
4. Model intervention mechanisms

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Basic Parts of Police Simulations
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Filtering Calibration
Results of valid sims of this
Crime event i occurrences
Crime event i reports to police
May not reflect this
Crime events recorded and classified as i, j, k
etc
Everybody knows the dice are loaded. Everybody
roles with their fingers crossed. Leonard
Cohen Everybody Knows
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The Great Mystery of Crime Reporting
How does victimization experience influence
peoples willingness to report crimes to the
police?
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Simulating Standard Policing
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Standard Policing

• Vary density of police patrols
• Vary speed of response
• Vary offender removal settings
• Vary filter simulation settings

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Simulating Focused Policing
1. Simulation of Problem/Pattern
2. Reporting/Recording Filter
3. Simulation of Standard Operations
Sim. of crime analysis
4. Simulation of Problem Interventions
Output
Human eye view of patterns
Gods eye view of patterns
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Focused Policing

• Simulate a crime analysis function
• Detects hotspots
• Patrols respond to detected hotspots
• Vary sensitivity, error, speed, intensity of
  analysis and patrols
• Create analogous arrangements for focusing on
  offender networks and repeat victims

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Perceived Hotspots in Offender Victim Spaces
Commuting time
income
age
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Simulating P-O Policing
1. Simulation of Problem/Pattern
2. Reporting/Recording Filter
3. Simulation of Standard Operations
Sim. of problem analysis
4. Simulation of Problem Interventions
Output
Human eye view of patterns
Gods eye view of patterns
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Problem-oriented

• Problem Analysis simulation is a simulation of
  the problem simulation
• Allows testing of various heuristics
• Can be used to study knowledge limitations
• Range of interventions broad
• Mechanisms for interventions diverse
• Simultaneous multiple intervention points
  possible
• Can be applied to non-police interventions

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Simulating POP vs Simulating Intervention
Simulation of Problems
Intervention simulation
POP Simulation
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Examples of Intervention Simulations

• Model of crowds used to simulate alternative
  parade routes (Batty 2005)
• Design street barricade arrangements based on
  crime and traffic flow models
• Experimentally vary place management intensity
  for landlord interventions

Batty, M. 2005 Cities and Complexity
Understanding Cities with Cellular Automata,
Agent-Based Models, and Fractals. Cambridge, MA
MIT Press.
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Analysis Units in 3 Strategies
Standard Model No analysis patrols wander or
go to most recent crime
Focused Policing Analysis detects
spatial-temporal cluster patrol of clusters
Problem-Oriented Policing Analysis models
problem police address process
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Conclusions

• Welcome
• Pay attention to existing evidence
• Pay attention to useful theories
• Pay attention to data errors
• Pay attention to forms of policing

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A Final Cautionary Note

• Today's scientists have substituted mathematics
  for experiments, and they wander off through
  equation after equation, and eventually build a
  structure which has no relation to reality.
• Nikola Tesla

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Further Reading

• Center for Problem-Oriented Policing
  www.popcenter.org