Venezuelan Elections

1
Venezuelan Elections

• The Chávez Era

2
Elections that Created the Fifth Republic

• National elections of 1998
• Constituent Assembly and Constitutional
  Referendum of 1999
• Continued domination by the Patriotic Pole
• Manipulated electoral law shuts out opposition
  from writing of the new constitution
• December referendum on the new constitution
• Overwhelming approval
• Abstention high

3
Charismatic Campaigner
4
Elections that Staffed the Fifth Republic
Presidential

• Conditions
• Plurality six year term
• Delay of balloting
• The Contendors
• MVR and MAS back Chavez
• Francisco Arias Cardenas spearheads the
  opposition
• Claudio Fermin Punto Fijo revival?
• Outcome
• Chavez wins 60 of the total popular vote

5
Elections that Staffed the Fifth Republic
National Assembly

• Conditions
• Mixed list-plurality system
• Five-year term
• The Contendors
• MVR and MAS form Patriotic Pole
• AD fields candidates in all states
• New political parties in the regions (states)
• Outcome
• Patriotic Pole wins majority but unable to
  modify the constitution
• AD has largest opposition delegation
• Middle class parties elect numerous Assemblymen

6
Elections that Staffed the Fifth Republic Regions

• Conditions
• Governors elected first past the post (five
  year terms)
• Mixed list-plurality system for state
  legislatures
• The Contendors
• MVR and MAS form Patriotic Pole
• AD fields candidates in all states
• New political parties in the regions (states)
• Outcome
• Patriotic Pole wins 16 of the 21 governors
• Zulia remains with the opposition
• Central states (Aragua Carabobo) back
  opposition
• AD elects governors in the Llanos

7
Elections that Staffed the Fifth Republic
Municipalities

• Conditions
• Mayors elected in mega-elections of July 30, 2000
  
• Councilmen elected in December local elections
• Neighborhood councils elected in December local
  elections
• The Contendors
• MVR and MAS form Patriotic Pole
• AD fields candidates in most municipalities
• New political parties in the regions run
  candidates for mayor/councilmen
• Outcome
• Patriotic Pole wins a majority of majors, but
  just barely
• AD elects almost 30 of the majors s
• Junta parochiales split among opposition and
  government forces

8
increases progressively after the 1998 national
elections reaches 80 in the municipal
elections of December 2000Exhaustion with
electoral politics
Abstention
9
Electoral Panorama Marginalization of Chávez
Opponents

• Revocatory referendum (August, 15, 2004) 60 for
  retention
• Regional and Local elections (October 31, 2004)
  80 of seats for the Revolution
• Municipal Council elections (August 7, 2005) 80
  of seats for the Revolution
• National Assembly Elections (November, 2006)
  opposition abstains Chavez forces win all seats.
  

10
National Assembly of Venezuela Election Results
(December 2005)

• Fifth Republic Movement (Movimiento V Quinta
  República)
• 2,041,293 votes
• 60.0 - 116 seats (out of 167)
• For Social Democracy (Por la Democracia Social)
• 277,482 votes
• 8.2 - 18 seats
• Fatherland for All (Patria para Todos)
• 197,459 votes
• 6.8 (10 seats)
• Communist Party of Venezuela (Partido Comunista
  de Venezuela)
• 94,606 votes
• 2.7 (7 seats)
• LAGO
• 61,789 votes
• 1.8 (2 seats)

11
Reelection emboldens Chavez to call for a
Referendum to Change the Constitution

• November 2, 2007 National Assembly approves a
  constitutional overhaul.
• Leads to riots (light) in Caracas

12
33 Articles of 1998 Constitution were to be
amended

• Proposed major changes
• Allowing the indefinite re-election of the
  president - not applicable to any other political
  post
• Increasing the presidential term from six to
  seven years
• Introducing changes to the country's
  administrative structure
• Ending the autonomy of the central bank
• lacing the president in charge of administering
  the country's international reserves
• Reducing the maximum working week from 44 to 36
  hours

13
Voters Narrowly Reject the Reforms

• First electoral defeat for Chavez followed by
  government efforts to weaken the opposition

• RCTV (television station) licensed was not
  renewed
• 272 people seeking public office banned from
  running for office in upcoming state municipal
  elections
• Elections scheduled for November 23, 2008

• .

14
Creating PSUV (United Socialist Party of
Venezuela

• Process initiated after Chavez won the
  presidential election of December 2006
• Purpose merge all parties that support the
  Bolivarian Revolution
• On 24 March 2007, the first 2,000 party members
  took their oaths on a party ceremony.
• Founding congress held in April 2008

15
Political Parties Joining PSUV

• People's Electoral Movement (MEP)
• Everybody Wins Independent Movement (MIGATO)
• Venezuelan Popular Unity (UPV)7
• Revolutionary Movement Tupamaro (MRT)
• Socialist League (LS)

• Movement for Direct Democracy (MDD)
• Union Party
• Militant Civic Movement (MCM)
• Action Force of Base Coordination (FACOBA)
• Independents for the National Community (IPCN)

16
Revolutionary Parties Not joining PSUV

• For Social Democracy (PODEMOS)
• Fatherland for All (PPT)
• Communist Party of Venezuela (PCV)
• Revolutionary Middle Class (CMR)
• Emergent People (GE)
• National Socialist Group of Liberation Pro
  Venezuela (PROVEN)
• Communitary Patriotic Unity (UPC)

17
Public Attitudes Toward Creation of PSUV

• Recent Poll from Últimas Noticias
• Communal Popular Power
• http//www.youtube.com/watch?vtAaK4jTcCf4

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Elections 23 November,2008

• 22 governorships
• All state legislators
• 328 Mayors

19
PSUV Candidate Selection for Elections of
November 23, 2008

• About 2.5 million members of the party choose
  candidates
• 22 governors
• 328 mayors
• If no single pre-candidate obtains at least 50
  plus 1 of the votes, or 15 more votes than the
  next highest pre-candidate, the national
  executive body of the PSUV and President Chavez,
  can select the candidate out of the three who
  achieved the highest vote.

20
Caracas Municipalities
21
PSUV Primary vote for Metropolitan Mayor
Caracas

• ARISTOBULO IZTURIZ ALMEIDA94.64129.873 votos
• ANGEL LUIS AGOSTINI RINCONES00.881.208 votos
• SORA ANGELLA MARTINEZ00.53729 votos

22
PSUV Primary vote for Governor of Miranda

• DIOSDADO CABELLO RONDON87,3922.155 votos
• TULIO AMADO JIMENEZ RODRIGUEZ5,111.297 votos
• ARMANDO GARCIA1,11283 votos
• REBECA PADILLA0,93237 votos
•  

23
PSUV Primary vote for Metropolitan Mayor
Maracaibo

• HENRY JOSE RAMIREZ SANCHEZ64,4162.560 votos
• CALIXTO ANTONIO ORTEGA RIOS12,512.142 votos
• JOE ANTONIO BERMUDEZ RINCON4,184.068 votos

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Táchira

• State capital San Cristobal
• Area   11,100 km²1.2   (Ranked 16th)
• Population 1,177,300 hab. (2007 est.)4.5  
  (Ranked 9th)
• Governor Roland Blanco La Cruz(PSUV) 2004
  2008)

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PSUV Primary vote for Governor of Tachira

• LEONARDO ALI SALCEDO RAMIREZ39,450.266 votos
• JOSE GREGORIO VIELMA MORA33,342.490 votos
• FRANCISCO JAVIER ARIAS CARDENAS8,6511.037
  votos
•  

26
Barinas Fiefdom of the Chavez family
27
PSUV Primary vote for Governor of Barinas

• Gobernador o Gobernadora de Estado
• ADAN COROMOTO CHAVEZ FRIAS91,1559.568 votos
• MARCOS RAMON FERNANDEZ3,42.226 votos
• RAMON ADOLFO FALCON2,91.899 votos

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Platform for PSUV
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November 23, 2008 ElectionsRESULTS

• Venezuelan Comptroller General banned almost 300
  candidates
• Opposition won five (out of 22) state
  governorships
• Zulia, Tachira, Nueva Esparta, Carabobo Miranda
  
• Dissident Chavistas peform poorly
• ( Barinas, Lara Guarico)
• Opposition victories in race for mayor of
  metropolitan Caracas Maracaibo
• Government unhappy with losses in key states
  municipios

30
Second Constitutional Referendum February 15,
2009

• Economic deterioration leads President to
  schedule the referendum as quickly as possible
• Rainy day funds used to prevent economic downturn
• Initial proposal to permit indefinite reelection
  of president only in trouble
• Changed to allow for indefinite reelection of
  governors mayors

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Electoral Appeal Voting

• Campaign slogans outcome

• Bugles sounding from government vehicles roused
  people - queues swiftly formed outside polling

• "Chávez loves us and love is repaid with love
• Chávez is incapable of doing us harm
• 54 of voters support indefinite reelection of
  the president and other office holders

32
Love War with ColombiaIs there an electoral
dimension?

• What is going on?

• Protest against U.S. Bases

• Chavez orders troops to prepare for War
• Popularity of Chavez government falling
• Barrio Adentro deteriorated
• Electricity and water shortages
• Divert the attention of voters in run up to 2010
  elections?