Why Air Forces Fail

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Why Air Forces Fail
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Why Air Forces Fail

• Key elements consistently present in failed Air
  Forces
• Airmen not trained for the task at hand
• Failure to understand the nature of the threat
• Misunderstanding the opponent and training for
  the wrong fight
• Relegated to a subservient role vs. land
  component

Why Air Forces Fail (University Press of
Kentucky, 2006)
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Categories of Failure

• "Dead Ducks Never really had a chance
• Poland in 1939, France in 1940, Italy from 1933
  to 1943
• "Hares Exploited advantages, but doomed by
  later blunders
• Germany in both World Wars and Japan in WW II
• "Phoenixes Rose from the ashes of early
  defeats
• Russia in both World Wars US and Britain in WW
  II
• Arab Air Forces Argentines in the Falklands
• Deficiencies in industrial infrastructure are key
  factors in most analyses of defeat, as are
  mistaken decisions about technology and tactics,
  and the neglect of logistics and pilot training.

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Strategic, Systemic Failures

• Air Forces dont fail by themselves
• Failure occurs in national, strategic context

• Failure to Anticipate Nature of war, nature of
  the enemy, new technology
• Failure to Learn Organizational / systemic
  deficiency lessons from other Air Forces our
  own
• Failure to Adapt Inherent human reluctance to
  adjust behavior

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Case Study of the IAF

• Spectacular successes, and near catastrophic
  failures, offer lessons for the USAF
• Six Day War
• War of Attrition
• Yom Kippur
• Osirak, Bekaa Beyond

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Six Day War

• Decisive victory through airpower
• Won in a 3 hour air campaign
• 454 enemy aircraft destroyed
• Operation MOKED
• Rehearsed for a year
• C2 by compass / stop watch
• Parallel airfield attacks, radio silence
• Enemy air forces in ruins
• Rest of the war about taking terrain with total
  air supremacy

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Six Day War Lessons

• Lesson 1 Employment
• Offensive, independent, unconstrained
• Airpower won decisively vs. superior foes
• Lesson 2 Planning and training
• Keys to flawless execution
• Lesson 3 Leadership and morale
• Wins over superior numbers
• Lesson 4 Must destroy
• Will to resist
• Enemies operational tempo

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War of Attrition

• Failure to learn, adapt anticipate -- Egypt,
  Jordan Syria simultaneous fronts
• IAF Linchpin of deterrent posture--total
  reliance on airpower
• 1967-71 period would haunt IAF by 73
• Strategic misuse of airpower
• In-lieu-of tasking
• Focus on terrorism
• Enslavement to the Army
• Success fed NATIONAL hubris
• Downed 7 Russian-flown MIG 21's in single
  engagement
• IADS threat widely known, but deemed manageable
• 2 jets lost per month cost of doing business
• The new normal routine milk runs against
  increasingly lethal IADS

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War of Attrition Lessons

• Lesson 1 If you fixate on the immediate fight,
  you'll fail to achieve strategic
  operational objectives, lose skills lives, and
  fail to prepare for the next fight
• Lesson 2 Failure to anticipate / adapt to ENEMY
  innovation is lethal
• Lesson 3 Dominance is perishable
• Lesson 4 Hubris kills

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Yom Kippur War

• NATIONAL failure to anticipate the
• threat and correctly employ airpower
• - Yet IAFs ability to adapt ultimately
• saved the day
• By Oct 73 best jets battered by 6
• years of combat

• Training for a major war sacrificed to fight the
  War of Attrition
• Bad habits of routine milk runs in support of the
  Army
• Complacency set in, having survived ZSUs, SA 2s
  and 3s.
• Precursor to war Massive air engagement over
  Syria (9/13/73)
• 13 MIG 21s downed with zero losses, reinforcing
  hubris

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Surprise Attack

• Precious hours lost debating authorization
• IAF pleas for preemptive strategic strike against
  Egypt and Syria
• Enemy allowed to attack first on 2 fronts
• IAF jets took off under fire
• Engaged in DCA and CAS
• IDF considered air superiority a
• God-given right
• Catastrophic attrition due to robust IADs
• No tactics / countermeasures against SA 6/7
• Actual losses heavier than acknowledged
• 40 -- catastrophic attrition in fighters!

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Verge of Defeat

• Effort to reestablish air superiority undercut by
  joint political concerns
• Leadership couldnt make up its mind on center of
  gravity
• Effort shifted to the front most at risk -- in
  the North

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Anatomy of Failure

• Smart logistics" made a great business case, but
  a horrible warfighting case
• Didnt anticipate the speed of consumption of
  resources in ferocious combat against a well
  prepared enemy
• Price 5000 casualties (30 officers)
• Proportionally equivalent to 430K American
  casualties
• (in just 3 weeks of combat)

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Yom Kippur War Lessons

• Lesson 1
• Complacency KILLS
• Underestimating threat KILLS
• Preparing to fight last war KILLS
• Lesson 2
• Political constraints KILL
• Lesson 3
• Airpower is a strategic asset
• Tactics adapted mid-fight
• Steep learning curve cost 150 jets (but
  saved lives later)
• Lesson 4
• Your allies might not bail you out
• Applicable only to Israel?

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Osirak, Bekaa and Beyond

• Redemption relatively quick
• Recognition of airpower as single point failure /
  success
• F-15s and 16s
• Weapons School training
• Primacy within the IDF
• Air Staff independent
• Pay off almost immediate
• The Entebbe Raid
• Kills against MIG 21s, 23s and 25s
• Raid on Osirak nuke reactor
• Decisive victory in the Bekaa Valley
• Score 89 to 2

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Lessons Forgotten

• BUT, with success came new complacency
• Dominance taken for granted
• Future fight seen on the ground
• BRAC Re-subordination to Army
• Lebanon Intifadas 1 / 2
• Airmen doing in lieu of taskings -- AGAIN
• Diminished effectiveness against Hezbollah
• Failed to anticipate rocket impact
• Less effective against asymmetries
• Service rivalries
• Result At best a draw militarily
• But a strategic / political defeat

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Things to Ponder

• Warfare is dynamic unpredictable
• Success failure are cyclical
• Airpower is a strategic asset, critical to
  victory
• Good armies lose without air superiority
• Redemption is possible but fleeting
• Dominance erodes over time
• Over-confidence sets in quickly
• Dont take air supremacy for granted
• The enemy will adapt, learn and anticipate