Title: A Decision Support System (DSS) for Amazon Conservation Planning Identification and Prevention of Potential Impacts of Infrastructure Development
1A Decision Support System (DSS) for Amazon
Conservation PlanningIdentification and
Prevention of Potential Impacts of Infrastructure
Development
JC Riveros, S. Rodrigues, G. Powell, C. Suarez,
W. Goulart-Silva, E. Pinage, A. Soto, C.
Scaramuzza, WWF Poverty - Environment
Partnership Meeting, November 19 2007
2Outline
- Purpose of the DSS Tool
- Spatial Scope
- DSS Structure
- Data Management
- Data Analysis
- Preliminary Outputs
- Future developments
3Purpose of the DSS Tool
- To provide a strong and consistent scientific
underpinning for the WWF Amazon Vision and
Strategy development by - Identifying representative habitats to conserve
the full expression of Amazonian diversity - Conducting a gap analysis of the protected areas
systems - Incorporating an explicit freshwater conservation
goal in the priority sites identification - Evaluating the impact of the main pressures on
the amazon biome - Design a baseline for the monitoring of
conservation interventions outcomes - Create a database and an information system able
to support the decision making process of the
conservation planners
4Spatial Scope
5Overview of the DSS Structure
6Data Sources
- Biodiversity
- Terrestrial TNC's Ecosystems Map
- Freshwater WWF (hydrogeomorphic features)?
- Hidrology
- Watergap 2 University of Kiel
- Hydrosheds WWF et al
- Threats
- GLC 2000 European Commission - JRC
- Amazon Scenarios IPAM, WHRC, UMG
- Vulnerability
- Deforestation - GLC2000
7Biodiversity Heterogeneity Models
- Absence of wide-scale distribution information of
most Amazon species - Biodiversity surrogates based on available
information and derived from enduring features
Terrestrial Biodiversity
423 classes
Freshwater Biodiversity
299 classes
8Cost Surface
- The cost surface was derived as a deforestation
probability surface generated using IPAM/WHRC
data. The procedure adopted was a sum of
projected deforestation maps for the 2001-2050
period.
9Cost Surface
Conversion Probability
10Data Analysis
- Analysis Goals
- ?Habitat Representation
- Heterogeneity Terrestrial and Freshwater
- ?Enhanced Resilience
- Big Blocks, Connectivity, Redundancy
- ?Ecological Processes
- Hydrological cycle maintenance
- Environmental services persistence
- ?Special Elements
- Endangered/ Keystone Species
11Planning Units
- Derived from HydroSHEDS dataset (Lehner et al.
2006)?
41,600 Ecological Drainage Units
12Data Analysis Software Tools Targets
- We used C-Plan and Marxan decision support
software to generate conservation priority area
scenarios for the Amazon basin based on the
principles of representation, irreplaceability,
functionality, flexibility, vulnerability and
connectivity (Scaramuzza et al. 2007) - Conservation targets
- 30 baseline for all terrestrial and freshwater
systems. - 40 for high species turnover rates ER
(e.g.Yungas)? - extra value as a function of remanent
vegetation. i.e. A highly vulnerable habitat
will have a higher target reflecting the urgency
of its conservation
13Analysis Results Different Scenarios
Using only strict protection PAs for
biodiversity conservation
Using PA (strict protection sustainable use)
Indigenous Territories for biodiversity
conservation
14Analysis Results Best Solution
IT SU PA
SP PA
No Protection
Areas gt 1.000.000 ha
15Analysis Results Climate Change Vulnerability
Climate envelope displacement- Block 19 (models
HAD3,NCAR,GISS,MIROC)?
16Deforestation (2003) and Road Development
17Projected Deforestation (2050) Road Development
18Above Ground Live Biomass (Saatchi, 2007)?
19Deforestation and Carbon Release(Peru 2010-2030)?
0,53 0,7 Pg
0,71 0,92 Pg
0,89 1,16 Pg
20Hydrologically linked impacts
Hydrologically connected model allows for the
identification of impacts at different
portionsof the basin upstream and downstream
21Future Improvements Impacts on Environmental
Services Livelihoods
22In summaryThe Amazon DSS tool can be used to
- Early identification of potential impacts at the
basin and regional scale - Comparison of Alternative Scenarios
- Biodiversity importance
- Importance for local livelihoods
- Deforestation potential (Carbon storage)?
- Information for/Negotiation with stakeholders
- Planning and consultation
- Mitigation and/or compensation
- Monitoring, enforcement and adaptation
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