Human Geography By James Rubenstein

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Human Geography By James Rubenstein

• Chapter 2
• Key Issue 3
• Why is Population Increasing at Different Rates
  in Different Countries?

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Demographic Transition

• The five stages of change in populations through
  which society progresses.

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Stages of Demographic Transition

• Stage 1 Low Growth
• Stage 2 High Growth
• Stage 3 Moderate Growth
• Stage 4 Low Growth
• Stage 5 Negative Growth
• not in text

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World Populations and Growth Rates
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Stage 1 Low Growth
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Stage 1 Characteristics

• Humans were hunters and gatherers
• NIR was essentially zero
• WP was perhaps ½ million
• The WP increased and decreased with the
  availability of food

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Agricultural Revolution

• A time, between 8000 B.C. and 1750 A.D., when
  human beings domesticated plants and animals.

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Effects of the Agricultural Revolution

• A larger, more stable supply of food
• More people could survive
• WP increased from about 5 to 800 million
• War and disease still took toll
• Still Stage 1 until 1750 A.D.
• No country is at stage 1 today

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Stage 2 High Growth
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Industrial Revolution

• A conjunction of major improvements in industrial
  technology that transformed the process of
  manufacturing goods and delivering them to market.

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Stage 2 Characteristics

• Unprecedented level of wealth
• Increased agricultural production fed the
  rapidly growing population
• people freed to work in factories
• Improved sanitation and personal hygiene

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Medical Revolution

• Medical technology invented in Europe and North
  America, diffused to LDCs of Africa, Asia, and
  Latin America.

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Medical Revolution

• Edward Jenner developed a smallpox vaccination
  in 1796
• Penicillin and other vaccines and insecticides
  were developed to combat diseases

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Effects of the Industrial and Medical Revolutions

• CDR suddenly plummeted
• WP grew 10 times faster
• At first, accelerating population growth
• then, growth rate slowed, but large gap remained
  between births and deaths.

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Stage 2 Transition Dates

• Europe and North America about 1800
• Africa, Asia, and Latin America about 1950

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Stage 3 Moderate Growth
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Stage 3 Characteristics

• Begins with a sudden decline of CBR
• CBR is still greater than CDR
• The NIR is more modest than Stage 2
• CDR declines due to new technology
• CBR changes due to social changes

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Social Changes

• People choose to have fewer children
• Delayed reaction to decline in IMR

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Economic Changes

• Children living on farms shared the chores
• As technology improved, people moved from the
  farm to the city
• Children living in the cities are not economic
  assets to their families
• Urban homes too small to accommodate large
  families

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Stage 3 Transition Dates

• Europe and North America moved in the first half
  of the twentieth century
• Asia, and Latin America in recent years
• Africa still in Stage 2

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Stage 4 Low Growth
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Zero Population Growth (ZPG)

• When the CBR and CDR are near equal, the NIR
  approaches zero (measured by a lack of change in
  the TFR over a long period).

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Stage 4 Characteristics

• A country with many immigrants must decrease TFR
  to achieve ZPG
• CBR can be slightly higher then CDR, with some
  females dying before they reach childbearing
  years.

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Stage 4 Transition Dates

• Most of Europe reached Stage 4 since 1970s
• The United States TFR went below ZPG
  (replacement level of 2.1) in 2000, but
  immigration prevents them from reaching Stage 4

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Social Customs in Stage 4

• More women enter work force
• Working parents must employ preschool care
  during work hours
• Wider variety of birth-control
• Participation in entertainment and recreational
  activities not suitable for children

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Stage 5Negative Growth
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Negative Growth

• The CBR is lower than the CDR

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Negative Growth as result of fifty years of
Communism in some Eastern European, most notably

• Russia
• Hungary
• Germany (Eastern)

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Reasons for Negative Growth

• Very strong family planning programs
• Deep-seated pessimism about having children in
  an uncertain world

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The Demographic Transition in England

• England has reached Stage 4
• 1000 years of population information available
• Boundaries unchanged
• Migration limited

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Stage 1 Characteristics

• In 1066, population was 1 million
• In 1250, the population declined from 4 to 2
  million
• By 1750, the population had reached only 6
  million

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Stage 2 Characteristics

• By 1800, the CBR remained high, but CDR declined
• Industrial Revolution increased food supply and
  improved health care
• By early 1900s, population increased from 6 to
  30 million (NIR 1.4)

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Stage 3 Characteristics

• Between 1880 and early 1900s
• While CDR declined, the CBR declined rapidly
• Between 1880 and 1970, the population increased
  from 26 to 49 million (NIR .07)

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Stage 4 Characteristics

• Since 1970s, CBR has varied between 12 to 14 per
  1000, while CDR has varied between 10 to 12 per
  1000
• Population has increased due to immigration from
  former colonies
• Population is currently around 52 million

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Population Pyramids
A countrys stage of demographic transition gives
a distinctive population structure which can be
easily viewed in a population pyramid.
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Population Pyramids

• A bar graph that displays a countrys population
  by age and gender groups.

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Characteristics of Population Pyramids

• population shown in five-year age groups
• length of the bar represents of total
  population in that group
• males shown on left side and women on right

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Age Distribution
Structure of populations are important in
understanding similarities and differences among
countries.
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Dependency Ratio

• The number of people who are too young or too old
  to work, compared to the number of people in
  their productive years.
• 0 14 (too young)
• 15 64 (productive years)
• 65 (too old)

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Dependency Ratio in Demographic Transition

• 11 dependency in stage 2
• 13 dependency in stage 4
• 101 young to old in stage 2
• 11 young to old in stage 4

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Population Under 15

• In LDCs 1/3rd of population are under 15 (stage
  2)
• In European and North America, 1/5th of
  population under 15 (in/near stage 4)

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• The large percentage of children in stage 2
  countries strain the resources to provide needed
  services to the dependent group.

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Percentage of PopulationOver 65

• Exceed 15 in Europe
• Less than 5 in Sub-Sahara Africa

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• More than 1/4th of all government expenditures in
  the U.S., Canada, Japan, and some European
  countries go to Social Security, health care, and
  other programs for older people.

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Sex Ratio

• The number of males per hundred females in the
  population.

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Sex Ratio Facts

• In general more males are born than females, but
  males have a higher death rate.
• Societies with a high rate of immigration
  typically have more males than females. Why?

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The shape of a communitys population pyramid
tells a lot about its distinctive character.
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What do Detroits and Laredo's Population
Pyramids tell us?
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Detroit, Michigan82 African Americans
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Laredo, Texas94 Hispanic
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Detroit and Laredo have relatively broad-based
pyramids, because the birth rates of the cities
majorities are high.
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What do Honolulus and Cedar Rapids' Population
Pyramids tell us?
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Honolulu, Hawaii 66 Asian-American and/or
Native Hawaiian
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Cedar Rapids, Iowa92 White
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The birth rates of Honolulu and Cedar Rapids
communities are low among those Asian Americans
and European-descendent communities respectively.
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Whats happening in Naples, Florida?
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42 over 65in Naples, Florida
Retirement Community
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Whats happening in Unalaska, Alaska?
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Military Base
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Whats happening in Lawrence, Kansas?
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College Town
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View Demographic Transition as reflected in
Population Pyramids.
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Examples of Demographic Transition

• Cape Verde Stage 2 (High Growth)
• Chile Stage 3 (Moderate Growth)
• Denmark Stage 4 (Low Growth)

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Cape Verde Stage 2

• Between 1941 and 1942, CDR was 74/1000 due to
  severe famine (stage 1).
• An anti-malarial campaign since 1950 tripled the
  population (NIR of 3.) stage 2
• CDR dropped from 27-17 in 1950, to 10 in the
  1970s.

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Fluctuations in CBR

• Severe famine in the 1940s.
• Lower birth rates in the 1960s, due to few women
  in prime childbearing years (1940s famine).
• Higher birth rates in 1950s and 1980s (larger
  number of women in childbearing years).

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What is the long term effect of severe famine?

• Lower birth rates in the 1960s, due to few women
  in prime childbearing years (1940s famine).
• Higher birth rates in 1950s and 1980s (larger
  number of women in childbearing years).

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Cape Verde
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Chiles Transition History

• Entered 20th century in Stage 1
• 1930s infusion of medical technology stage 2.
  
• 1960s vigorous governmental family-planning
  policy stage 3.
• Reversed policies in 1970s delay in stage 4.

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Chile
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Denmark Stage 4

• Stage 3 in late 19th century.
• ZPG in 1970s, population increase due to
  immigration.
• of young and elderly nearly same.

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Denmark
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Why will CDR increase in Denmarks future?

• Elderly will begin dying off.

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Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
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Status of Current World Growth

• No countries in stage 1.
• Few countries in stage 4.
• Most countries in stage 2 and 3.

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Four-stages of Demographic Transition are
characterized by two breaks in the past

• 1. Sudden drop in death rate due to technological
  innovations (everywhere).
• 2. Sudden drop in birth rate due to changing
  social customs (in a few countries).