His Excellency Mr' Dalrain Davaasambuu - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

1 / 13

About This Presentation

Title:

His Excellency Mr' Dalrain Davaasambuu

Description:

Number of Views:56

Avg rating:3.0/5.0

Slides: 14

Provided by: zorkva

Category:

Tags: cashmere | dalrain | davaasambuu | excellency

Transcript and Presenter's Notes

Title: His Excellency Mr' Dalrain Davaasambuu

1
His ExcellencyMr. Dalrain Davaasambuu

2
Mongolia in 2036 How to profit from the rise of
an economic superpower

3
Double transition since 1990 Political and
economic reforms

Several changes of government since 1990. Today,
five parties are represented in Parliament four
parties are in the Cabinet
Mongolians are enjoying fundamental human rights,
democracy and freedom of information
Democracy and rule of law have been achieved,
despite a low level of economic development
Democracy Without Prerequisites See Steven Fish
(1998), Mongolia Democracy without
Prerequisites, in Journal of Democracy (9) 3
(July), 127-141.
Political and economic reforms occurred at the
same time. Private sector produces gt70 of GDP
due to the privatisation of state enterprises and
economic reforms since the centrally planned and
command economic model was abandoned in the early
1990s

4
Economy now and 2036

private estimate including informal economy
5
Development Basis and Strategy

Landlocked and vulnerable
Small landlocked country between two big
neighbours
High economic vulnerability according to UNDP
ranking. Dependence on small number of
commodities (copper, gold, cashmere)
The China Factor
Few competitive advantages in manufacturing vs.
China
Chinas economic rise increases demand for metals
like copper

Strategy
Promote export oriented economy with high
diversification (AsiaEuropeAmerica)
Strengthen industries with low transport costs
that use locally available raw materials
Use duty-free access to EU
Establish status as transit country for energy
and goods
Develop tourism, agriculture and produce some
value added goods
Exploit Mongolias rich natural ressources with
the help of foreign direct investment
Invest in infrastructure
Look for opportunities in knowledge-based sectors

6
A small but growing population

From 1950 to 1990, the population almost tripled
to 2,7 mio. now
In the transition period 1989-2000, population
growth droped to 1.4 from 2.5 in 1979-1989.
This reflects the enormous socio-economic
changes.
Estimates suggest that the Mongolian population
will amount to 3,6 mio. in 2035
Research indicates that population growth will
drop below the replacement level around 2025
(less than 2,1 children per woman)

7
A new life for herdsmen

Non-intensive herding suits Mongolias natural
conditions. Carrying capacity of the steppe
limited to 30-40 mio. livestock
10 of the population will live as herdsmen in
2036, from 15 now. (410,000 herders then,
370,000 now)
Living arrangements will converge towards
developed nations model, for example 30 of
herders households have TV now all will have a
TV in 2036

8
Tourism can make a big difference

Tourism created 5 of Mongolias GDP in 2004
25 annual increase in income from tourism over
the past five years
Amount of visitors doubled to 305,000 from 2000
to 2004
If Mongolia maintains a 10 annual increase over
30 years, we will have 4 mio. visitors in
2036 (population size)

9
Gaining from transit

Mongolia plays an important role for the transit
of goods and people between China, Russia, Europe
and Asia at large (road, air, pipelines)
Energy from Russia to China could go through
Mongolia (increased by rising importance of
renewable energy, eg hydroenergy from Russia)
Route for trade in goods to Russia (Provide
related service and gain access)
Need to develop infrastructure and transport
industry

10
Digging for development

Mongolia is rich in resources Copper, gold,
iron, coal, phosphate etc.
Recent commodity price boom makes Mongolias
future more bright and promising Foreign
investment has started, but development of mining
stakes takes time (15 years or more)
Global underinvestment in metals, despite
megatrend of rising demand (caused by economic
rise of China)
Proximity to China as a big advantage (low
transport cost)

11
Economic impact of mining

Copper and gold deposits at Oyu Tolgoi, exploited
by Canadian company Ivanhoe Mines, could start
operation in 2-3 years
Over gt35 years, 15 mio. t of copper and 11 mio.
oz. of gold
At 2005 prices, the value of exports from this
mine project alone exceeds US 54 billion
Ivanhoe estimates 34,3 annual increase in real
GDP and 9,3 increase in nationwide consumer
expenditure

12
International support

Historically good relations to Russia, because of
Russias role in optaining national independence
in 1921 and supporting modernization for 70 years
China becomes Mongolias largest trading partner
and source of FDI
Developed democracies as trading partners and
providers of development assistance (G7 protocol
first mentionned support for Mongolias reforms
at 1991 London meeting)
US president George Bush expressed support for
Mongolia on his visit in November 2005

13
Summary 800 years of statehood

In 1206, Chinggis Khan united the Mongolian
tribes and established a Mongolian state
Independence in 1921
Successful double transition since 1990
Profiting from Chinas economic rise
In 2036, Mongolia will celebrate 830 years of
statehood. To get an idea of what that will be
like, please come to our country and attend the
800-year celebrations taking place throughout
2006.