2D FluxTransport Dynamo Models - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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2D FluxTransport Dynamo Models
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Timing Prediction based on Dikpati & Gilman model. Cycle 24 will be ... have data from GONG and MDI for Cycle 23) The meridional flow changes with time and in ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation
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Title: 2D FluxTransport Dynamo Models
1
2D Flux-Transport Dynamo Models with low
diffusivity 3 - 8 x 1010 cm2/s (advection
dominated)
10-20 m/s
Meridional Flow determines l cycle length l
cycle shape
Observations with helioseismic techniques go back
1 solar cycle, longer using correlation tracking
Goal Include a more realistic flow variation in
models
2
Timing Prediction based on Dikpati Gilman
model Cycle 24 will be late made in 2004
3 scenarios need to make assumption on the
meridional flow
October 2004 D. Hathaway press release Solar
minimum is coming sooner than expected His
prediction minimum in late 2006, maximum in 2010
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We now know more about meridional flow variation
Meridional flow since 1982 (Mt. Wilson)
Courtesy of R.Ulrich
(We also have data from GONG and MDI for
Cycle 23) The meridional flow changes with
time and in latitude
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Flow concentrated at lower latitudes stronger
return flow shorter cycle period
Flow extend to higher latitudes return flow is
weaker longer cycle period
Dynamo runs from M. Dikpati
