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Paul Kailiponi Researcher
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Analysis of Operational Plans for Precautionary Evacuation using Decision Theory Paul Kailiponi Researcher ERGO Project kailipop_at_aston.ac.uk – PowerPoint PPT presentation
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Title: Paul Kailiponi Researcher
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Paul KailiponiResearcher ERGO
Projectkailipop_at_aston.ac.uk
Analysis of Operational Plans for Precautionary
Evacuation using Decision Theory
www.astoncrisis.com
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Outline
- Applied Decision Theory
- Prescriptive analysis
- Contextual limitations to Decision Theory
- Model specification
- Value function specification
- Probability specification
- Substantive results for preventative evacuation
- Sample policy comparison
- Improvements to hazard forecasting
- Practitioner feedback
- Conclusions and broadening scope
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Applied Decision Theory
- Systematic approach to decision-making
- Utilizing Subjective Expected Utility (SEU)
theories - Individual or small group decision-making
- Subjective utility and probability elicitation
- State-based preference
- Prescriptive Decision Theory for emergency
management - Evacuation decision-making
- Focus on providing insights into the
decision-making process - NO attempt at creating a descriptive model
- Theoretical contributions
- Identification of appropriate values for
evacuation management - Multiple prescriptive uses through substantial
practitioner participation - Identification of risk thresholds policy
analysis
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Contextual Limitations
- Emergency management for catastrophic events
- Limited n-size
- Mixture of objective and subjective data
- SEU limitations
- Elicitation process difficulties
- Utility elicitation
- General practitioner aversion to mathematical
models of decision-making - Elicitation trade-off toward requisite modelling
- SEU and Multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT)
- Prescriptive Focus
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Model Specification Utility Function
- Identifying evacuation values
- Evacuation Responsiveness by Government
Organizations (ERGO) - Ten participating countries (Belgium, Bulgaria,
Denmark, Germany, Iceland, Japan, Poland, Spain,
Sweden, UK) - 80 interviews, 150 documents
- Various hazards
- Advantages to breadth of data-gathering
- Maximize confidence that all values are
identified (Bond 2007) - Verify subsets of values conditional on
hazard/threat
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Evacuation Attribute List
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Objective Function Specification
- For any given emergency context
- Axiomatic verification
- Multi-attribute utility function
- Additive function
- Single utility function
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Single Utility Function Elicitation
- Elicitation Trade-off
- Theoretical complexity vs. Practitioner
participation - Utility assessment process
- Value and measurement identification
- Axiomatic verification
- Utility assessment Certainty Equivalence (CE)
- Software support
- Weight (k) assessment
- Utility (u(x)) assessment
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Probability Function Specification
- Identification of key uncertainties
- Storm-tide predictions
- (Casualty rates Storm-tide levels)
- (Casualty rates Traffic conditions)
- (Evacuee Compliance Official Order)
- Mixture of subjective and objective probabilities
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Influence Diagram
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Risk Threshold Analysis
- The evacuation dilemma
- 12 Hour Storm-tide risk thresholds
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Risk Threshold Analysis
- 9 Hour Storm-tide risk thresholds
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Decision Theory Risk Thresholds vs. Existing Risk
Thresholds
- At 12 hour
- MAUT Initial evacuation actions taken at
forecasts of 640 cm. - Actual risk thresholds based on experience
Initial evacuation actions taken at - Practitioner Verification
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Policy Analysis
- Policy analysis
- Forecast Improvement versus other policies
- Example of policy analysis
- Given 1 million euro cost of evacuation
- Probability of catastrophic storm surge
- Improvements in forecasting precision can save
the city 200,000 over 10 years in false
evacuations - Sensitivity analysis can provide additional
insight
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Conclusion and Broadening Scope
- Theoretical contributions
- Identification of appropriate values for
evacuation management - Multiple prescriptive uses through substantial
practitioner participation - Risk threshold analysis
- Policy generation and analysis
- Broadening Scope
- A generalized evacuation model for multiple
hazards - Risk tolerance of various emergency organizations
conditional on organizational system - Scenario building and training applications
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- Questions?
- Comments?
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