Mans Role in Climate Change: A Students Understanding - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Title: Mans Role in Climate Change: A Students Understanding


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Mans Role in Climate Change
A Students
Understanding
Marty Cornell October 26, 2009
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Does the Science Support Human-Induced Global
Warming?
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Correlation is not causation.
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Correlation is not causation.
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Few challenges facing America and the world are
more urgent that combating climate change. The
Science is Beyond dispute and the facts are
clear. President-elect Barack Obama, November
19, 2008
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Steven Chu, US Secretary of Energy, Nobel Prize
Physics, 1997
Science has unambiguously shown that were
altering the destiny of our planet The science
is clear, were boiling our planet
2009 speech at Tsinghua University, China
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With all due respect Mr. President,
that is not true. 100 PhD Scientists in LA
Times Ad, March 30, 2009
..The computer models forecasting rapid
temperature change abjectly fail to explain
recent climate behavior..
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The Issue
Climate Change
Global Warming
Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW)
Carbon-based (CAGW)
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Two Views on Global Warming
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James E. Hansen, CAGW Proponent NASA Goddard
Institute for Space Studies (GISS)
26 April 2007 testimony to the Select Committee
of Energy Independence and Global Warming of the
U. S. House of Representatives entitled
"Dangerous Human-Made Interference with
Climate" Air temperatures of the last
quarter-century have been unprecedented for at
least the past two thousand years. The
atmosphere's current CO2 concentration is greater
than it may have been for tens of millions of
years. The earth "is close to dangerous climate
change, to tipping points of the system with the
potential for irreversible deleterious effects."
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Summarizes the peer reviewed literature on
climate every five years
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Summary for Policy Makers
Provide the science to support the need to
control greenhouse gas levels.
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Natural changes cannot account for the
significant long-term warming in the historical
global surface temperature anomalies. Lean
Rind, 2008
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Natural changes cannot account for the
significant long-term warming in the historical
global surface temperature anomalies. Lean
Rind, 2008
People 0.06 OC/decade
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Natural changes cannot account for the
significant long-term warming in the historical
global surface temperature anomalies. Lean
Rind, 2008
People 0.06 OC/decade
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Natural changes cannot account for the
significant long-term warming in the historical
global surface temperature anomalies. Lean
Rind, 2008
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Natural changes cannot account for the
significant long-term warming in the historical
global surface temperature anomalies. Lean
Rind, 2008
ENSO 0.002 OC/decade
Aerosols -0.001 OC/decade
Solar 0.007 OC/decade
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Richard S. Lindzen, CAGW Skeptic Alfred P. Sloan
Professor of Atmospheric Sciences at
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, July 26,
2009
The notion of a static, unchanging climate is
foreign to the history of the earth or any other
planet with a fluid envelope. The fact that the
developed world went into hysterics over changes
in global mean temperature anomaly of a few
tenths of a degree will astound future
generations. Such hysteria simply represents the
scientific illiteracy of much of the public, the
susceptibility of the public to the substitution
of repetition for truth, and the exploitation of
these weaknesses by politicians, environmental
promoters, and, after 20 years of media drum
beating, many others as well.
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Global Warming Petition Project
31,478 American scientists have signed this
petition,including 9,029 with PhDs
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Roger A. Pielke, Both Natural and AGW Senior
Research Scientist at CIRES, emeritus professor
of the Department of Atmospheric Science at
Colorado State University, retired.
The focus on just CO2 as the dominate human
climate forcing is too narrow. Natural
variations are still quite important. Human
influence is significant, but it involves a
diverse range of first-order climate forcings,
including, but not limited to the human input of
CO2. Emission of aerosols into the atmosphere,
Land management and land cover change.
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79 Billion so far
Climate Money, Joan Nova, via The Science and
Public Policy Institute, July, 2009
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Cap Trade Cost 1,761 per Household Source US
Treasury
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What Does the Science Say?
What is Climate? What causes climate change? How
do we measure climate change? Is the current
warming unusual? How much of the current warming
is due to man vs. nature?
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Climate is what you expect.
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Weather is what you get.
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Brazoria County Airport
Weekly Mean Temperature, OF
Annual Precipitation, Inches
Wind Speed, mph
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What Does the Science Say?
What is Climate? What causes climate change?
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Components of the Climate System
Changes in the Atmosphere Composition,
Circulation
Changes in the Hydrological Cycle
Changes in Solar Inputs
Clouds
Atmosphere
N2, O2, Ar, H2O, CO2, CH4, N2O, O3, etc. Aerosols
Volcanic Activity
Atmosphere-Biosphere Interaction
Atmosphere-Ice Interaction
Precipitation Evaporation
Terrestrial Radiation
Ice Sheet
Heat Exchange
Wind Stress
Glaciers
Human Influences
Land-Atmosphere Interaction
Biosphere
Soil-Biosphere Interaction
Sea Ice
Hydrosphere Ocean
Land Surface
Changes in the Cryosphere Snow,
Frozen Ground, Sea Ice, Ice Sheets, Glaciers
Ice-Ocean Coupling
Hydrosphere Rivers Lakes
Changes in/on the Land SurfaceOrography, Land
Use, Vegetation, Ecosystems
Changes in the Ocean Circulation, Sea Level,
Biogeochemistry
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ERBE
Earth Radiation Budget Experiment 3 satellites,
1st launched in 1984 Measure energy exchanges
between sun, earth, space Albedo
(reflectance) OLR (outgoing longwave
radiation) Effect of clouds
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Emission Spectra of the Sun and Earth
JunkScience.com, Updated August 2007
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Greenhouse Gases
390 Surface Radiation
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Without greenhouse gases, the earth would be 33
OC (59.4 OF) cooler!
i.e. -18OC instead of 15OC
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NASA CERES Satellite
33 Wm-2 Reflected by Clouds
235 Wm-2 Outgoing Longwave Radiation
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TESTING YOUR ENVIRONMENTAL IQ
The 1 Green House Gas Is The 2 Greenhouse
Gas Is The 3 Greenhouse Gas Is
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Contribution of Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases to
the Natural Greenhouse Effect
Hans Peter Lenz and Christian Cozzarini,
Emissions and Air Quality, SAE, 1999
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TESTING YOUR ENVIRONMENTAL IQ
The primary source of CO2 emissions is..
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TESTING YOUR ENVIRONMENTAL IQ
The primary source of CO2 emissions is
..the transportation sector now accounts for
about one third of all CO2 emissions in the US
and road transportation is three quarters of that
third.
Malcom A. Weiss, John B. Heywood, Elizabeth M.
Drake, Andreas Schafer, Felix F. AuYeung ON THE
ROAD IN 2020, A life cycle analysis of new
automobile technologies, Energy Laboratory Report
MIT EL 00-003, Massachusetts Institute of
Technology, October, 2000
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Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton
The United States and China emit 45 of the
worlds greenhouse gases. Press release prior to
her Feb., 2009 trip to China
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Scatter Band of Global Annual CO2 Emissions
(ref. year 1996)
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36,000 Billion Tons Carbon in Oceans
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TESTING YOUR ENVIRONMENTAL IQ
The 1 source of man made CO2 is
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Distribution of Worldwide Annual Anthropogene
CO2-Emission
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Background ? Forcings
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Climate Forcings Change Energy Balance
The Sun Clouds (type and amount) Aerosols
Particulates Albedo (reflectivity) Land Use
(vegetation, Urban Heat Island) Green House Gas
Concentration
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Milankovitch Cycles Drive Ice Age Cycles
21,000 year cycle elliptical orbit combined with
tilt (precession of the equinoxes) 41,000 year
cycle of the /- 1.5O wobble (tilt) 100,000 year
cycle variation of the shape of earths
elliptical orbit (cycle of eccentricity)
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Eccentricity of Earths Orbit National
Academy of Sciences
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Ice Volume
Planktonic Foram 18O as Proxy
More Ice
Del 18O
1,000 of Years Ago
Less Ice
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Note Sea Level incorrect.
This map courtesy of Jonathan Adams
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This map courtesy of Jonathan Adams
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The Holocene Optimum
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Oceans -120m -400 feet!
During Last Glacial Maximum
http//uk.encarta.msn.com/media_461527006/ice_exte
nt_during_the_last_ice_age.html
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14mm/year
Image from GlobalWarmingArt.com
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20.2 cm/122 years 0.17 cm/year
Image from GlobalWarmingArt.com
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Sea Level Change 21Aug09
16.6 years
Data via Climate Audit from climate.nasa.gov/keyIn
dicators/
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Ice Volume
Planktonic Foram O-18 as Proxy
More Ice
Eustatic sea level was higher than present
during this last interglacial by 4 to 6 meters
IPCC 4TAR, Palaeoclimate, p 458
Del O-18
1,000 of Years Ago
Less Ice
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NASA ESAs Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
SOHO
Spotless DaysCurrent Stretch 75 days2009
total 217 daysSince 2004 728 daysTypical
Solar Min 485 days
2009/09/23
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11 Year Cycle of Solar Variability /- 0.1 Wm-2
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Sunspot Number
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50 sunspots over 30 year period, vs. 40,000 to
50,000 sunspots per 30 years in modern times
1.0 OC cooler
150
100
Sunspot Number X 100
50
Little Ice Age
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Frozen Thames, 1677
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Correlation is not causation.
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Solar Cycle Sea Level
( via Tide Gauges)
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Sun Summary
The Sun dominates Earths climate. Earths orbit
eccentricities cause major climate changes Ice
Ages ?? Interglacials, 5.5 OC swings in
temperature average, Ice ages dominate (70 -
90 of 100,000 yr cycle). Ice Ages decrease
vegetation, increase deserts. Sea levels have
risen 120 m since the last glacial
maximum. Todays temperatures are not unusual,
having been equaled or exceeded at least 3 times
since the last glacial maximum. 11 year solar
cycles strongly correlate with climate changes
during interglacial periods. Low sunspots ?
-1OC. Modern sea level fluctuations highly
correlate with solar cycle.
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Solar /- 0.1 Wm-2 not sufficient by itself to
cause current warming need amplifier, forcing
feedback.
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High (6 km) Cirrus Clouds Warm Earth
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Low Clouds Reflect Sunlight ? Cool
Earth
Photo by Robert Campbell
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Measuring Earths Albedo
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From satellite cloud data
Calibration Band
Observed Earthshine
From 20th century GHG Increase
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Strength of Solar Wind ? /- Magnetic Field ? -/
Cosmic Rays
Magnetosphere
Bow shock line
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Suns Turbulent Magnetic Fields
Illustration by Janet Kozyra with images from
NASA, Journal of Geophysical Research Space
Physics.
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Svensmark Hypothesis
Create Seeds of Low-lying Clouds
The Cosmos
Cosmic Rays
Reflect 33 Wm-2
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Svensmark Hypothesis
A more active Sun decreases the amounts of
low-lying clouds, which means that it warms the
Earth.
Creates Seeds of Low-lying Clouds
The Cosmos
Cosmic Rays
Cosmic Rays
Since 1987 Implies -5 Cloud H2O
? 1OC
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The Solar Climate Relationship
Lower Magnetic Field Strength
Fewer Sunspots
Less Solar Wind
More Galactic Cosmic Rays
More Low Level Cloud Formation
More Sunlight Reflected Into Space
Earth Becomes Cooler
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Solar Flux
Inverse of Cosmic Rays
Ocean Heat Flux
Atlantic Ocean Heat Flux
Sea Level Rise
SST w/out ENSO
Sea Surface Temp.
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CO2
GCR
Icehouse
Greenhouse
Shaviv Veizer, GSA Today, 2003
Million Years BP
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CO2
GCR
Icehouse
Greenhouse
Shaviv Veizer, GSA Today, 2003
Million Years BP
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El Capitan, Guadalupe Mountains
Coral reef formed 260 million years
ago. ..when atmospheric CO2 was 2000 ppm
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Correlation recently reported between solar/GCR
variability and temperature in Siberia from
glacial ice core, 30 yr lag (ie. ocean currents
may be part of response)
Correlation is not causation.
Jasper Kirkby /CERN CERN Colloquium, 4 June 2009
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Inquisition of Dr. Henrik Svensmark
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Jasper Kirkby /CERN CERN Colloquium, 4 June 2009
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Correlation is not causation.
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Cause? ? CLOUDS ? Result? and Temperature
When researchers observe natural changes in
clouds and temperature, they have traditionally
assumed that the temperature change caused the
clouds to change, and not the other way around.
To the extent that the cloud changes actually
cause temperature change, this can ultimately
lead to overestimates of how sensitive Earths
climate is to our greenhouse gas emissions.
Dr. Roy W. Spencer, University of Alabama in
Huntsville,
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Atmospheric Solar Heat Amplifier
Meehl Hypothesis, Science,
28Aug09
Peak Solar Cycle
0.2 Wm-2 Irradiance
Higher UV Radiation
More Ozone in Stratosphere
Higher Evaporation
Less Low Level Cloud Formation
Warmer Stratosphere (Varies by Latitude)
0.1 OC SST gt 0.5 Wm-2
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Observed
Model no Stratosphere Ozone Chemistry
Sea Surface Temperature
Precipitation
Model no Air-Sea interaction
Coupled Model
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Model with no Ozone Chemistry
Coupled Model
Model no Air-Sea interaction
Observations
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Cloud Summary
High level clouds trap heat. Low level clouds
mostly reflect heat Net effect is 33 Wm-2 Sun
?? GCR hypothesis ? or cloud seeding ? -5
Cloud H2O ? 1OC Albedo fluctuation correlated
with last two solar cycles. Meehl hypothesis
peak solar ? more ozone and more evaporation
(less clouds) ? 0.1 OC SST.
Photo by Andrei Aiordachioaie
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Global Mean Radiative Forcings in 2005
Adapted from IPCC 2007 WG1-AR4, page 32
Cloud Albedo

0
-2
2
1
-1
Wm-2
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Solar ?Aerosols
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Atmospheric Aerosols Particulates
? Net Cooling of -0.5 Wm-2 (IPCC 4TR)
_at_ 1 Wm-2 ? 0.22 OC,
this -0.11 OC
Sarychev Peak Eruption 12Jun09, from
International Space Station
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Sahara Sand Storm over Atlantic
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Station Fire, Los Angeles, 30Aug09
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Contrails
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Ship Tracks off North America
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Black Carbon Absorbs solar radiation Decreases
albedo
IPCC 4TAR Aerosol cooling ? -0.5 Wm-2 Myhre 2009
Black Carbon more significant than stated by
IPCC, ? net aerosol cooling reduced to -0.3 Wm-2
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Aerosol Summary
Particles Multi-Task to Change Climate
Volcanic plumes (sulfates) cool. Dust storms
fires reflect, thus cool. Jet Contrails high
clouds, thus warm. Ship tracks (sulfates, low
clouds) cool. Black carbon decreases albedo,
thus warm. IPCC net effect ? -0.5 Wm-2 (i.e.
cooling) Increase in Black Carbon decreases
cooling to -0.3 Wm-2 This means IPCC impact of
CO2 is overstated by 0.2 Wm-2 0.04 OC.
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Global Mean Radiative Forcings in 2005
Adapted from IPCC 2007 WG1-AR4, page 32
No volcanic aerosol effect is included by IPCC

Direct Aerosol
Cloud Albedo

Linear Contrails
0
-2
2
1
-1
Wm-2
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Aerosols ? Oscillations
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Oscillations
Recall 20th Century net warming of 0.6 OC
Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere, John
Christy UAH
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Global Mean Surface Temperature (1961 1990)
National Climate Data Center
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15
14
Temperature, OC
3.8 OC
13
12
11
J
D
N
O
S
A
J
J
M
A
M
F
Month
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NH 9.76 OC swing
Global Mean 2.3 OC swing
SH 4.8 OC swing
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ENSO Normal a.k.a La Nina
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ENSO El Nino
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SST and water temperature profile, Equatorial
Pacific Ocean, January 1997
La Nina
30OC
8OC
Thermocline, 20OC
NASA GISS
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SST and water temperature profile, Equatorial
Pacific Ocean, November 1997
Transition
NASA GISS
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SST and water temperature profile, Equatorial
Pacific Ocean, March 1998
El Nino
NASA GISS
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El Nino
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La Nina
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La Nina
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Nothing unique about super El Nino of 1998
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The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Typical
wintertime Sea Surface Temperature (colors),
 Sea Level Pressure (contours) and surface wind
stress (arrows) anomaly patterns during warm and
cool phases of PDO  
Warm Phase
Cool Phase
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Abrupt PDO Phase Shift
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Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
Aug to Oct 1948 to 2003 Surface SST
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North Atlantic
Global
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Probably more than half of all satellite-
derived "global warming trends" are directly
attributable to the 66 year AMO cycle.
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Northern Hemisphere Heating Faster Than Southern
Hemisphere
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Correlation is not causation.