A Review of EIA

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A Review of EIAs Current Short-Term Forecasting
System
Dave Costello, EMEU Energy Information
Administration to
American Statistical Association Committee on
Energy StatisticsApril 22, 2004
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EIAs Short-Term Forecasting Program Cooperative,
Multi-Office Forecasting Effort
Coverage U.S. and World Oil Demand/Supply/Prices
U.S. Natural Gas, Electricity, Coal, Renewables
Demand/Supply/Prices
Data



Monthly energy data, mostly from EIA sources,
plus supporting data from other agencies (BEA,
DOT, BLS, FAA) and industry
Forecast Horizon 12-24 months ahead.
Additional 12 months added every January.
Schedule Forecast updated every month. Web
updates posted each month..
Process Multiple Offices within EIA involved.
STIFS model used to provide integrated forecasts
and market balances.
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The Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System
(STIFS)
What is STIFS?
?
National-Level Model of U.S. Energy Demand,
Supply, Prices
?
Based on Monthly Data Supplied by EIA and other
sources
?
Structure
-
900 Endogenous variables (180 stochastic
estimating equations)
Coverage
-
All major fuels (petroleum, natural gas, coal and
electricity) and sectors (where available)
?
Horizon
-
Forecast period extends 15-24 months
?
-
Software
EViews 4.1 Simulation model available
?
as Windows application (Short-Term Energy Model)
STIFS Outputs/Products
Short-Term Energy Outlook
Updated monthly on EIAs world wide web pages .
-
?
Short-Term Energy Model
Microsoft Windows version of the EViews-compiled
STIFS simulation/
-
?
forecasting model. Available for download from
the EIA FTP site.
STEO Web visits
-
Approx. 1,300/day (April 2004)
STEO Listserv Customers
-
4,000 (Q1 2004)
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Forecast Model Data Flow
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STIFS Natural Gas Price/Electricity Supply Model
Example Description and Simulation Exercise
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STIFS Natural Gas Demands(Excluding Electric
Power Sector)
From gas supply model
Macro Data Inputs
Natural Gas End-Use Prices
GI Model
Oil Prices
OG/EMEU Pet. Models
Regional Weather Assumptions
NOAA/EMEU CNEAF
Residential Commercial Industrial
Demand Demand Demand
To gas supply model
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STIFS Natural Gas Supply Model
Natural Gas Demands
From electricity supply model
From nat. gas demand models
Existing Gas Wells
End-Use Gas Prices
Spot Gas Price
To nat. gas elec. demand models
Prod. Capacity
Rigs/ New Wells
Import Capacity
OG
Gas in Storage
Dry Gas Production
Oil Prod.
Net Imports
Field Revs.
OG
Oil Prices
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STIFS Electricity Demands
From pricing model
Regional Macro Data Inputs
End-Use Prices
GI Model
Regional Weather Assumptions
NOAA/EMEU CNEAF
Residential Commercial Industrial
Other Demand Demand
Demand Demand
To U.S. Fuel Choice Module
Own Use/Direct Sales
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Power Sector Fuel Choice
From electricity demand model
Precip. Trends (Hydro) and Nuclear Outages
Electric Load Requirements
From CNEAF
Fossil Fuel Costs
From pricing model
From price models
Net Generation by Fuel Source
Regional Fuel Cost Patterns
Heat Rates by Fuel Type
Electric Power Sector Fuel Demands Coal Nat.
Gas Oth. Gas Oil Nuc. Hydro Oth
Renew. Oth.
To oil models
To coal model
To gas model
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Low Natural Gas Production Scenario
Production Scenario (Bcf/Day)
Spot Price Impacts (/mmBtu)
Approximate Net Elasticity -0.2 (?Q/ ?
P)(Pavg/Qavg)
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Natural Gas Demand Impacts (Bcf/Day)
Total Demand
Electric Power Sector Demand
Industrial
Residential/ Commercial
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Electricity Demand and Output Impacts (BKwh/Day)
Electricity Demand
Electric Generation
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Generation Impacts by Fuel (BKwh/Day)
Natural Gas
Coal
Distillate
Residual Fuel
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Historical Simulation for Fuel Choice (BKwh/Day)
Coal
Mean Error FF Share 0.15
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Historical Simulation for Fuel Choice (BKwh/Day)
Natural Gas
Mean Error FF Share -0.12
Mean Error FF Share -0.12
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Historical Simulation for Fuel Choice (BKwh/Day)
Petroleum
Mean Error FF Share -0.03
Mean Error FF Share -0.03
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Move to a Regional Model
Adds more depth to the analysis - energy demand
profiles vary importantly by region - some
energy supply problems are local
(pipeline/ transmission constraints,
regulations, etc.) - national model ignores or
distorts the effects of these distinctions Adds
relevance - EIA customers need more outlook
information relevant to their State or
Region May add accuracy - National-level
forecast based on regional forecasts may be
more accurate Move long envisioned - Additional
resources now available
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Regional Model Scope
Census Region detail on electricity and natural
gas demand Market area price determination for
spot natural gas NERC-region (and selected
State) level electricity supply
determination) PADD-level pricing for key
petroleum products (gasoline, 2 distillate,
propane) Census Region detail on household
heating/cooling costs
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Schedule for the Regional STEO Model
Complete estimation and testing by late fall,
2004 Begin short-term regional forecasts by
early 2005 Continue monthly release
schedule Incorporate the expanded regional
coverage into the PC-STEO model (download)
Expand web presentation and query system to
include regional detail