Open Sesame: Arab Mobile Markets

1
Open Sesame Arab Mobile Markets

• Michael Minges
• minges_at_itu.int

The views expressed are those of the author and
may not necessarily reflect the opinions of the
ITU or its Members
2
Topics

• The mobile revolution
• Some Arab States behind
• Emerging Arab mobile stars
• Issues to consider

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A Mobile Revolution
Worldwide mobile cellular subscribers (millions)
Mobile as of total telephone subscribers
28

• More than 300 million users
• 250000 new users added each day
• Users double every 20 months
• Competitive markets

21
318
16
215
12
8
5
144
4
3
2
91
34
23
16
55
11
1990
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
Source ITU World Telecommunication Indicators
Database.
4
A mobile future
Mobile will substitute for fixed telephony as
the primary form for personal communications Vod
afone
2'000
Telephone subscribers, millions, 1990-2010

• Mobile has overtaken fixed-lines in Cambodia
  Finland
• Mobile subscribers to overtake fixed-line
  worldwide before 2010
• Mobile revenue to overtake fixed-line after 2004

1'500
Fixed
1'000
Mobile
500
0
1990
2000
2010
Source 1990-1998 data from ITU World
Telecommunication Indicators Database. 1999-2010
ITU projections.
5
Under performing
14
Lebanon
12
Mobile cellular subscribers per 100 people,
1997
10
These countries are doing better than expected
Bahrain
8
Qatar
6
These countries are doing worse than expected
4
Jordan Morocco Egypt Tunisia Algeria
Oman
2
Saudi Arabia
2'000
4'000
6'000
8'000
10'000
12'000
GDP per capita, US, 1997
6
One is no fun

• Arab States have least competitive cellular
  markets

7
Limited supply
2
0
1
1
0
1
2
1
1

1
1
1
3
1
0
1
1
Number of mobile operators
1
X
1
1
0
Uganda
NOTE This map is for illustrative purposes
only!!!
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Sub-Saharan Mobile Success Story
Uganda Mobile subscribers 000s

• Uganda Least Developed Country category
• Introduces competition October 1998
• By September 1999, more mobile than fixed
  subscribers
• Both mobile operators backed by strategic foreign
  investors

More mob-ile than fixed
Enters market 10/98
Forecast
Starts up 5/95
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Lebanon The Arab mobile pioneer

• First Arab country to introduce mobile
  competition
• 2 Build-Operate-Transfer (BOTs) start May 95
• Libancell
• Sonera (Finland) 14
• Cellis
• France Telecom 67

Fore- cast
Fixed
Mobile
10
Lebanon Universal coverage, high substitution
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Egypt opens up
Egypt Mobile cellular subscribers (000s)
Forecast
Starts 11/98
Starts 11/96
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Morocco sets a record

• Awards 2nd license in July 1999
• Price of license fee per population highest ever
  for developing country
• New operator expects to capture half of market by
  2003

Mobile cellular subscribers per 100 inhabitants
Source Telefonica (Spain)
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Arab Mobile Stages
Mobile cellular subscribers per 100 inhabitants
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Technology

• Almost all Arab States use GSM
• 14 networks
• 3.1 million subscribers (June 99)
• 3rd generation mobile (IMT-2000)
• Global roaming
• Multimedia
• Multimode
• Japan (2001), European Union by 1/1/2002

Worldwide cellular subscribers by technology,
1998
GSM
44
Analogue
30
Digital 70
D-AMPS 6
PHS
PDC
CDMA 7
2
11
15
Coverage

• Mobile cellular coverage is an important
  indicator of Universal Access
• 100 population coverage pre-paid card
  Universal Access

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Tariffs
Mobile Tariffs, 1999, 100 minutes per month, US
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For more information
WORLD TELECOMMUNICATION DEVELOPMENT REPORT 1999

• Publication launch 10 October 1999 (TELECOM
  99)
• Available on paper and online (PDF format)
• Website
• http//www.itu.int/ti/publications/wtdr_99/wtdr99.
  htm

Also see The world in your pocket.
Telecommunication Survey. October 9 1999.
www.economist.com
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