El Nino forecasts: Usable Science for Society

1
El Nino forecastsUsable Science for Society?
Mickey Glantz 6 December 2006 PROTOTYPE WORKSHOP
ON WATER AFFAIRS Water Resources University
2
El Niño as a Hazard-Spawner

• El Niño has not been accepted as a natural hazard
  even though it meets all criteria
• However, El Niño is a hazard-spawner
• its occurrence has been associated with droughts,
  floods, fires, etc. around the globe.
• The same can be said of La Niña

3
El Niño makes the covers(1984 and 1997,
respectively)
4
La Niña makes the news
5
Media Headlines Worldwide El Niño 1997-98
6
Media Headlines WorldwideLa Niña a 1998-2000
7
Need to improve communicating science
8
Climate as a Resource
9
Need to improve societys understanding of
science
A once in a century climatic disaster
10
Area of Concern(the impacts of anomalies)

• Food production
• Food security
• Water resources
• Quantity
• Quality
• Energy
• Public health
• Public safety
• Environ. refugees
• Economy
• Environment
• Other

11
(No Transcript)
12
(No Transcript)
13
Sea Surface Temperature Changes in the Tropical
Pacific
14
Ocean temperature profile, Equatorial Pacific
1997-98
15
Seesawing Sea level pressure the southern
oscillation
16
Topex-Poseidon monitoring sea level changes
from space
17
Time Series for El Niño (red) and La Niña (blue)
18
(No Transcript)
19
(No Transcript)
20
ENSO What it can do(based on what it has done
in the recent past)
21
ENSO What it can do(based on what it has done
in the recent past)
22
Perception of Climates Impacts on Agriculture
Weather
USDA 1984
23
Reality of Climates Impacts on Agriculture
USDA 1984
24
(No Transcript)
25
(No Transcript)
26
Seven Things People Ought to Know About El Niño

• El Niño does not represent unusual behavior of
  the global climate
• El Niño is part of a cycle
• Every weather anomaly throughout the world that
  occurs during an El Niño year is not caused by
  that El Niño
• El Niño has a positive side as well
• There will continue to be surprises associated
  with future El Niño events
• The impact of global warming on El Niño is not as
  yet known, speculation notwithstanding
• Forecasting El Niño is different from forecasting
  the impacts of El Niño

27
Nine El Niño Traps People Ought to Know About

• Scientists do not agree on the list of El Niño
  years
• Forecasting El Niños onset does not tell us much
  about its other characteristics (e.g., intensity,
  frequency, duration)
• Monitoring El Niño is different from forecasting
  it
• When viewed as an event, El Niño evokes different
  concerns than when it is viewed as part of a
  process
• We have seen enough El Niño events to know all
  the ways they can develop and play out. The same
  applies to El Niños impacts on societies and on
  ecosystems.
• A pretty website does not El Niño expertise make
• The media do not have a neutral interest in
  reporting El Niño waves of media interest in El
  Niño (based on my personal encounters from July
  1997 to spring 1998) were as follows.
• Beware of the use of El Niño analogies (e.g.,
  this event is like the 1972-73, 1982-83 or
  1997-98 event)
• It is very tricky, risky, and potentially
  misleading to blame any specific weather event on
  El Niño