A service of the National Association of Colleges and Employers 62 Highland Ave. Bethlehem, PA 18017

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Economic Trends and The Implications for College
Recruiting
Radford University Experiential Learning and
Career ServicesWalker 279
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• "Don't project beyond the range of the known
  observations"
• Adage for economists

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Overview

• The Economy
• How bad?
• How bad is it going to get?
• College Recruitment
• Prospects for the Class of 2009
• College employment vs. general economy
• NACE Job Outlook 2009 report
• Long-term outlook
• Age of the work force
• Top replacement jobs
• Restructured economy and the impact on majors

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How Bad?

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by
  nearly 40 since last October.
• This is the largest annual decline since the
  Great Depression (1932).
• Overall unemployment is 6.7the highest level
  since 1992, but still considerably below the
  11.4 in January 1983.

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Trends in the Dow Jones Average
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Trends in the U.S. Unemployment Rate
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Forecasting Power of the Dow

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average is frequently
  cited as a leading economic indicator with the
  unemployment rate lagging.
• The data relationship between the two since 1979
  suggests a clear inverse patternas the Dow
  decrease, the unemployment rate increases.

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Change in the DJIA vs. Unemployment
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Unemployment in 2009

• Overall unemployment rate is likely to reach 8.5
  in 2009.
• Unemployment for those with a bachelors degree
  or better is likely to go from the current 3.1
  to 3.7.
• Unemployment for young bachelors degree holders
  figures to go from the current estimateof 3.4
  to an estimated 4.1.

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Job Outlook Class of 2009

• Job prospects for the class of 2009 are
  considerably below those for the previous five
  graduating classes.
• NACEs Job Outlook 2009 Quick Poll, conducted in
  October 2008, found an overall flat job market
  for this years candidates.
• Most sectors were projecting decreases, with
  government, high-tech manufacturing, and
  professional services firms still projecting some
  increase.

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NACE Job Outlook Projections2006 - 2009
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Job Outlook by IndustryPercent Change,
August-October
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NACE Projections vs. Estimated Young College Grad
Unemployment
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Majors in Demand

• The current Job Outlook survey projects the
  majors most in demand to be consistent with
  previous surveys
• Undergraduate majors with technical skills
  (accounting, engineering, computer sciences)
  command the most attention in todays job market.

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Top Degrees in Demand Job Outlook 2009
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Longer-term Prospectsfor College Graduates

• Economic outlook is for significantly slower
  growth over the next several years than was
  experienced over the past 15 years.
• New jobs are not likely to be plentiful, but
  replacement openings due to aging in the work
  force will be dominant.

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The Demographic AdvantageFor New College
Graduates

• Current work force is aging
• Average age is currently 41 (up from 35 in 1980)
• 20 percent of the work force will be over 55
  during the next decade
• Firms are developing succession strategies
  focused on college recruiting.

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Trends in the Labor ForceExits vs. Entrants?
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Top Jobs in a Down Economyfor College Graduates

• Elementary and Secondary Educationand
  Information Technology are the best prospects for
  new grads in the next few years.
• Healthcare positions, particularly in
  nursing,are also attractive options.

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Top Jobs Requiring a Post-Secondary Degree
Replacement Openings
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Top Jobs Requiring a Bachelors Degree
Replacement Openings
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Prospects for a Paradigm Shift

• The most recent period of extended recession was
  marked by de-industrialization in the United
  States.
• Additionally, a major shift in college majors
  reflecting the change in the economy took place.

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Trends in Academic MajorsBy Bachelors Degrees
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Paradigm Shift?

• Diminished financial sector
• Lower prestige
• Fewer job openings
• Limits on compensation
• Business majors and M.B.A.s Less attractive?
• Alternative Washington (federal employment)
  instead of Wall St.?

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Questions?

• Edwin Koc
• Director, Strategic and Foundation Research
• National Association of Colleges and Employers
• E-mail ekoc_at_naceweb.org
• www.naceweb.org