Title: Getting Ready For ETS
1Getting Ready For ETS
2Agenda
- BP Globally
- BP in New Zealand
- Risks
- Understanding the NZ ETS
- Implications of the NZ ETS
- Internal changes/education
- Lessons learned
3BPs global position
- First oil major to acknowledge climate change
issue - Support well constructed Emissions Trading
Schemes - Facilities involved in EU Trading
4Risks (Climate Change)
Financial
Market
Legal
Regulatory
Commercial
Tax
Physical
Climate Change will be woven into every aspect of
our business
5New Zealand emissions profile (tiny and difficult)
0.3
77.05 MILLION TONNES CO2 e
4,984 MILLION TONNES CO2 e
6Devolving obligation
2008-12
Credit for 1t CO2 Eq
7BP New Zealand position
- Support well structured Emissions Trading Schemes
- Obligated party Liquid Fossil Fuels
- Material market player
- One of first major buyers under NZ ETS
8Understanding the NZ ETS
- Many differing opinions
- Emissions in hands of many
- Hybrid approach to hybrid emissions profile
- Developed vs developing
- Will need external purchases to meet Kyoto
commitment - Confusion surrounding NZ ETS objective
9Implications of NZ ETS
- Need for clarity
- Uncertainty
- Pace
- First priority risk mitigation
- Lack of market development
- High price
- Currency of concern
10Understanding markets
11How do we purchase?
- Local vs international
- Forestry
- Negotiation
- Experience
- Timing
12BP global trading experience
Excess Emissions
P R O J E C T S
Baseline
ERs created by project
With Project emissions
Plant 1
Plant 2
A L L O W A N C E S
Excess Allowances (available to trade)
Excess Emissions
Cap
- Net position of all facilities is traded
- NZ purchase materially larger than EU
Cap
2012
2012
2008
2008
Country 2
Country 1
13Timing/availability
- Delay in arrival of forestry credits
- Position on AAUs
- Supply of credits
- Time required to purchase a material number of
credits - Insufficient time and clarity prior to start will
be a major hurdle
NZ -US Oil - Risk? NZ - Credits - Risk?
1 Jan 2009
Dec 2009
Mar 2010
Price NZ
14Timing/availability
CDM Availability by 2012
NZ Liquid Fossil Fuel requirements by 2012
2.6 of projects deliver 55 of credits
- Top 10 projects HFC and N2O
- NZ32 carbon price
- 2.6 billion cost to industry
- Due to credit profile significant period of
time required for purchasing
Source IGES CDM Availability Database
15Projected emission reduction
Source The Framework for a New Zealand Emissions
Trading Scheme NZ Government
16Internal changes/education
- Education
- Leadership induction
- Overseas BP experts
- Sales teams
- Wider organisation conference
- Changes
- Accounting
- Tax
- Legal
- Resource
- Communications (including customer)
17Earths orbit
18Kyoto
KYOTO CLUB
REDUCE GHG
IMPROVE ENERGY EFFICIENCY
RETAIN GROW SINKS
REDUCE GHG
COMMERCIAL REALITY AND POLITICS MAKE GLOBAL
AGREMENT DIFFICULT
If after undertaking the above you end up with
greater or lesser emissions than your allocation
then trade the difference, or save for a rainy
day!
19Cap and Trade a simple example
- Government sets a mandatory CO2 cap per household
reducing by 10 per year
Potential to Relocate
20Lessons learned so far
- Market liquidity (immature and loose) versus
Order Book - NZ market is unbalanced
- Credibility of forest as a mechanism is a concern
- Transitional arrangements are the biggest issue
- Undertaking a small basic trade to test the
system is a good idea - A journey of price discovery various mechanisms
and prices in market - Emissions profile will be used as a barrier to
market entry - Do your research
- Unlikely to see material reduction in NZ
emissions - Beware of Sharks (they trade on the in balance of
awareness)
21Choose quality advisors
22Summary
- BP supports well constructed ETS
- Climate change needs to be addressed
- NZ ETS is unique
- Pace and content creates concerns
- Significant implications if risks not managed
properly - Ground work required within organisation
- Do your research and choose quality advisors
- Questions?