CISN Earthquake Early Warning

1
CISN Earthquake Early Warning
Real-time testing of algorithms statewide
Richard Allen, UC Berkeley
U.S. Geological Survey
UC Berkeley
Caltech
SCEC/USC
2
What is early warning?
1. Rapid detection of an earthquake in progress
2. Rapid notification of observed ground
shaking 3. Prediction and notification of
future ground shaking
3
What is early warning?
1. Rapid detection of an earthquake in progress
2. Rapid notification of observed ground
shaking 3. Prediction and notification of
future ground shaking
Continuum of earthquake information
1. Initial trigger
2. Rapid magnitude, early MMI observations
3. Post earthquake information
AlertMap 0 sec
AlertMap 2 sec
ShakeMap minutes
4
CISN statewide testing
August 2006 July 2009
Implement pre-prototype system for algorithm
testing
Algorithm implementation for a statewide system
Algorithms
1. Onsite warning single station Caltech/U.
Taiwan
2. Virtual Seismologist network
approach Caltech
3. ElarmS network approach UC Berkeley
4. others?
5
CISN statewide testing
August 2006 July 2009
what we plan to do
seismic networks
waveform processing
6
CISN statewide testing
August 2006 July 2009
what we plan to do
seismic networks
waveform processing
waveform processing

• Hub locations
• UC Berkeley
• USGS Menlo
• Caltech

7
CISN statewide testing
August 2006 July 2009
what we plan to do
seismic networks
output parameters
Onsite warning

• predicted ground shaking onsite

waveform processing
waveform processing

• Hub locations
• Berkeley
• USGS
• Caltech

8
CISN statewide testing
August 2006 July 2009
what we plan to do
seismic networks
output parameters
Onsite warning

• predicted ground shaking onsite

waveform processing
Virtual Seismologist

• location
• magnitude
• predicted ground shaking everywhere

waveform processing

• Hub locations
• Berkeley
• USGS
• Caltech

9
CISN statewide testing
August 2006 July 2009
what we plan to do
seismic networks
output parameters
Onsite warning

• predicted ground shaking onsite

waveform processing
Virtual Seismologist

• location
• magnitude
• predicted ground shaking everywhere

waveform processing
ElarmS

• location
• magnitude
• predicted ground shaking everywhere

• Hub locations
• Berkeley
• USGS
• Caltech

10
CISN statewide testing
August 2006 July 2009
Goal evaluation of early warning methodologies
in real-time
Aug 06
Year 1 Initial real-time outputs from EEW
algorithms Year 2 Adding uncertainty estimates
website display Year 3 Evaluation of past and
future performance
? specifications for implemented early warning
system
Jul 09

• equipment requirements (stations)
• telemetry
• processing

11
Earthquake early warning
Operational systems
around the world
Systems under development
Japan
Romania
Taiwan
United States
Turkey
Italy
Mexico
Greece
India
12
Current applications of early warning
around the world

• Mexico and Oaxaca Cities users
• Private industry 28
• Schools 84
• Housing complex 1
• TV/Radio stations 34
• Government offices 94
• Subway 4

• Japan
• Rail/Metro systems
• Fire/rescue organizations
• In home information door/window opening utility
  shut-off
• Elevator control
• Outdoor works
• Factories
• Power plants
• Hospitals

• Taiwan
• Rail system
• Hospital

• Istanbul
• Electric power plant
• High rise building (bank)

13
Potential applications of early warning
in California
We are looking for partners
Industry Chemical plants, biotech,
manufacturing, construction ? isolate
systems, move to a safe/hold mode ?
reduced damage and faster business resumption
Transportation Metro, BART, airports, highways
(?) ? slow and stop Utilities Electric,
gas, water ? more rapid system
management, reduce cascading failures Personal
Protection Schools, offices, warehouses,
homes ? duck and cover command before
shaking ? evacuation of dangerous single story
buildings In the future Active response
buildings and
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15
Santa Rosa
AlertMap
August 2, 2006 Magnitude 4.4
ShakeMap
16
Santa Rosa
AlertMap
August 2, 2006 Magnitude 4.4
ShakeMap
17
Santa Rosa
AlertMap
August 2, 2006 Magnitude 4.4
ShakeMap
18
Santa Rosa
AlertMap
August 2, 2006 Magnitude 4.4
ShakeMap
19
Santa Rosa
AlertMap
August 2, 2006 Magnitude 4.4
ShakeMap
20
Santa Rosa
AlertMap
August 2, 2006 Magnitude 4.4
ShakeMap
21
Santa Rosa
AlertMap
August 2, 2006 Magnitude 4.4
Alarm time ? 4 sec of data at 4 stations
ShakeMap
22
Santa Rosa
AlertMap
August 2, 2006 Magnitude 4.4
ShakeMap
23
Santa Rosa
AlertMap
August 2, 2006 Magnitude 4.4
ShakeMap
24
Santa Rosa
August 2, 2006 Magnitude 4.4
ShakeMap
25
Santa Rosa
August 2, 2006 Magnitude 4.4
Warning time
11 sec
29 sec
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CISN statewide testing
August 2006 July 2009
seismic network
earthquake parameters
event processing
control interface

• ground shaking
• location
• magnitude
• predicted ground shaking

actions

• Hub locations
• Berkeley
• USGS
• Caltech
• other?

CISN
end user not part of current CISN testing plan
28
Potential applications of early warning
in California
Industry Chemical plants, biotech,
manufacturing, construction ? isolate
systems, move to a safe/hold mode ?
reduced damage and faster business resumption
Transportation Metro, BART, airports, highways
(?) ? slow and stop Utilities Electric,
gas, water ? more rapid system
management, reduce cascading failures Personal
Protection Schools, offices, warehouses,
homes ? duck and cover command before
shaking ? evacuation of dangerous single story
buildings In the future Active response
buildings and
29
Cost
Is early warning too expensive?
Cost of retrofitting buildings
Barker Hall 14 mill
Barrows Hall 20 mill
Hearst Mining 80 mill (base isolation)
Wurster Hall 30 mill
UC Berkeley SAFER program 20 mill per year for
20 years Spent 900 mill so far
30
Cost
Is early warning too expensive?
Cost of early warning
1. The seismic network
Installation of 600 new stations 6 - 30
mill Network operation 2 - 6 mill per year
2. Transmitting warning information
Existing technologies - weather radios -
satellite and internet communications - wireless
networks
3. Educational program

• Early warning response is specific to individual
  users
• Set in broader context of earthquake preparedness

31
Earthquake early warning across California
Application and benefits of

• 1. The most effective system
• single station network based approaches
• 2. Warning times
• seconds to tens of seconds
• more warning for most damaging events up to 1
  minute
• 3. A warning would be available to many of the
  affected population for most earthquakes
• 4. Broad range of applications
• reduce the loss of life
• reduce injuries
• reduce damage/costs
• increase speed of recovery
• 5. The cost is not large compared to
• other mitigation strategies

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Early warning methodologies
Seismic Stations
P-wave
fault
S-wave
34
Early warning methodologies
1st Station to detect P-wave arrival
Seismic Stations
P-wave
fault
S-wave
35
Early warning methodologies
1st Station to detect P-wave arrival ? issue
alarm onsite Single station approach
Seismic Stations
P-wave
fault
S-wave
36
Early warning methodologies
1st Station to detect P-wave arrival ? issue
alarm onsite Single station approach
Multiple stations detect P-wave arrival
Seismic Stations
P-wave
fault
S-wave
37
Early warning methodologies
1st Station to detect P-wave arrival ? issue
alarm onsite Single station approach
Multiple stations detect P-wave arrival ?
combine information and issue alarm everywhere
Network approach
Seismic Stations
P-wave
fault
S-wave
38
Early warning methodologies
1st Station to detect P-wave arrival ? issue
alarm onsite Single station approach
Multiple stations detect P-wave arrival
and S-wave arrival ? combine information and
update alarm everywhere Network approach
Seismic Stations
P-wave
fault
S-wave
39
Early warning methodologies

• Single station approach
• more rapid
• greater uncertainty
• ? use in epicentral region

• Network approach
• slower for epicentral region
• more warning at greater distances
• more accurate

Seismic Stations
P-wave
fault
S-wave
? Use both approaches
40
(No Transcript)
41
CISN statewide testing
August 2006 July 2009
what we plan to do
seismic network
earthquake parameters
event processing

• ground shaking
• location
• magnitude
• predicted ground shaking

• Hub locations
• Berkeley
• USGS
• Caltech
• other?

42
CISN statewide testing
August 2006 July 2009
seismic network
earthquake parameters
event processing
control interface

• ground shaking
• location
• magnitude
• predicted ground shaking

actions

• Hub locations
• Berkeley
• USGS
• Caltech
• other?

CISN
end user not part of current CISN testing plan
43
Warning times
in San Francisco

• From Alarm time
• (4 sec of data at 4 stations)
• Existing stations
• Telemetry upgrade

44
Probabilistic warning times infrastructure
upgrade
San Francisco

• 130 stations
• 2 sec telemetry
• 2 stations with pT

MMI 7 moderate MMI 9 heavy damage
45
Warning times
in San Francisco

• From Alarm time
• (4 sec of data at 4 stations)
• Existing stations
• Telemetry upgrade

Loma Prieta earthquake

• 20 sec warning for San Francisco and Oakland
• Single station would provide lt10 sec

46
(No Transcript)
47
Probabilistic warning times
Northern California

• WG02 Report
• probabilities
• ground shaking
• ElarmS
• warning times

WG02 Earthquake Probabilities
Scenario ShakeMap
48
CISN statewide testing
August 2006 July 2009
seismic network
control interface
actions
49
CISN statewide testing
August 2006 July 2009
seismic network
control interface
actions
control interface
actions
control interface
actions
50
(No Transcript)
51
Seismic networks
UC Berkeley and US Geological Survey Currently
provide rapid earthquake information e.g.
ShakeMap
UC Berkeley USGS networks
52
Statewide testing
Looking forward
Implement pre-prototype system for algorithm
testing
Algorithms
1. ElarmS UC Berkeley
2. Virtual Seismologist Caltech
3. Onsite warning Caltech/U. Taiwan
4. others?
Participating Institutions
U.S. Geological Survey
UC Berkeley
Caltech
SCEC/USC
53
What is early warning?
1. Rapid detection of an earthquake in progress
2. Rapid notification of observed ground
shaking 3. Prediction and notification of
future ground shaking
Seismic Stations
P-wave
fault
S-wave
54
What is early warning?
1. Rapid detection of an earthquake in progress
2. Rapid notification of observed ground
shaking 3. Prediction and notification of
future ground shaking
1st Station to detect P-wave arrival
Seismic Stations
P-wave
fault
S-wave
55
What is early warning?
1. Rapid detection of an earthquake in progress
2. Rapid notification of observed ground
shaking 3. Prediction and notification of
future ground shaking
1st Station to detect P-wave arrival ? issue
alarm onsite Single station approach
Seismic Stations
P-wave
fault
S-wave
56
What is early warning?
1. Rapid detection of an earthquake in progress
2. Rapid notification of observed ground
shaking 3. Prediction and notification of
future ground shaking
1st Station to detect P-wave arrival ? issue
alarm onsite Single station approach
Multiple stations detect P-wave arrival
Seismic Stations
P-wave
fault
S-wave
57
What is early warning?
1. Rapid detection of an earthquake in progress
2. Rapid notification of observed ground
shaking 3. Prediction and notification of
future ground shaking
1st Station to detect P-wave arrival ? issue
alarm onsite Single station approach
Multiple stations detect P-wave arrival ?
combine information and issue alarm everywhere
Network approach
Seismic Stations
P-wave
fault
S-wave
58
What is early warning?
1. Rapid detection of an earthquake in progress
2. Rapid notification of observed ground
shaking 3. Prediction and notification of
future ground shaking
1st Station to detect P-wave arrival ? issue
alarm onsite Single station approach
Multiple stations detect P-wave arrival
and S-wave arrival ? combine information and
update alarm everywhere Network approach
Seismic Stations
P-wave
fault
S-wave
59
What is early warning?
1. Rapid detection of an earthquake in progress
2. Rapid notification of observed ground
shaking 3. Prediction and notification of
future ground shaking

• Single station approach
• more rapid
• greater uncertainty
• ? use in epicentral region

• Network approach
• slower for epicentral region
• more warning at greater distances
• more accurate

Seismic Stations
P-wave
fault
S-wave
? Use both approaches
60
Loma Prieta
Oakland 66 fatalities
84 of the fatalities were at distances which
could have received 20 sec warning
Cypress viaduct collapse
San Francisco 18 fatalities
Falling masonry Apartment building collapse
ABAG ground shaking
61
Warning times
in San Francisco

• From Alarm time
• (4 sec of data at 4 stations)
• Existing stations
• Telemetry upgrade

Loma Prieta earthquake

• 20 sec warning for San Francisco and Oakland
• Single station would provide lt10 sec

62
(No Transcript)
63
Earthquake early warning
Operational systems
around the world
Systems under development
Japan
Romania
Taiwan
United States
Turkey
Italy
Mexico
Greece
India
64
Warning times
in San Francisco

• existing stations
• existing telemetry
• delay 5.5 sec

65
Warning times
in San Francisco

• existing stations
• telemetry upgrade
• delay 2.0 sec

66
Probabilistic warning times
Northern California

• WG02 Report
• probabilities
• ground shaking
• ElarmS
• warning times

WG02 Earthquake Probabilities
Scenario ShakeMap
67
Probabilistic warning times infrastructure
upgrade
San Francisco

• 130 stations
• 2 sec telemetry
• 2 stations with pT

MMI 7 moderate MMI 9 heavy damage
68
Probabilistic warning times infrastructure
upgrade
San Francisco

• 130 stations
• 2 sec telemetry
• 2 stations with pT

MMI 7 moderate MMI 9 heavy damage
69
Current applications
Japan, Taiwan, Mexico, Turkey and Romania
Utilities Power (fire prevention), gas Industry
Hazardous chemicals, chip manufacturers, eye
surgeons Construction Site safety, (active
control buildings) Transportation Airports,
rail and subway, bridges Response community Fire
departments, rescue teams, government Personal
protection Schools, housing complexes
(evacuation), hosing unit (preparation)