Future of the Automobile

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Future of the Automobile

• Francis Clay McMichael
• Carnegie Mellon
• November 12, 1999

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Industrial Ecology of Automobile

• Carnegie Mellon Green Design Initiative
• http//www.ce.cmu.edu/GreenDesign/
• http//www.eiolca.net
• MIT Materials Systems Lab
• msl1.mit.edu

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Selected regulations

• United States
• CAFÉ regulations fleet requirements for OEMs
• California ARB sale mandates for ULEV and ZEV
• Pollution Prevention Act 1990
• NiCd Battery Recycling Act
• European Union
• End-of-life mandatory takeback by OEM
• Recycle content mandates for new vehicles

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Life Cycle Assessment
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Life cycle analysis of auto

• Conventional emphasis on tailpipe emissions and
  fuel economy
• LCA takes larger view - raw materials to
  end-of-life
• LCA looks for pollution prevention opportunities
• LCA takes inventory of material and energy use

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Outline

• Fuel economy and mass of vehicles
• Material substitution to reduce mass
• Alternative fuels and engines
• End of life and recycling
• Reducing life cycle environmental impact

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Questions

• Can alternative fuel vehicles match the
  performance of conventional liquid fuel vehicles?
• Does a life cycle assessment change our
  perspective on environmental impact of different
  vehicles?
• What is a zero emission vehicle?

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Metrics to characterize the auto

• Performance acceleration, top velocity and range
  between refueling
• Size interior volume and luggage space
• Fuel economy and tailpipe emissions
• Price first cost and lifetime ownership
• End-of-life reuse, recycle, and disposal

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Consumer Reports 1997 CAFÉ auto 27.5
mpg 8.6 l/100 km
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Power /Mass and Zip

• Larger cars generally have more P/M and Zip than
  small cars
• Light trucks and vans have lower P/M and Zip than
  cars
• Fuel use increases for increased P/M and Zip
• How much Zip is enough?

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Power to Mass and Zip

• P / M Vf2 - Vi2 / 2 delta_t
• Example 0 to 60 mph in 10 sec
• Vf 60 mile/h 96 km/h 27 meter/s
• Vi zero mile/h , a standing start.
• P/M 36 watts / kg
• Zip sqrtP/M 6 W/kg1/2
• P/M and Zip are performance metrics

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Consumer Reports 1997
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What kind of vehicles do we buy?

• In US, choice of many models and sizes.
• Presently, more interest in larger, less fuel
  efficient vehicles.
• World events fuel prices have affected our
  buying patterns.

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What is weight reduction worth?

• Weight reduction to the consumer is mainly valued
  in terms of fuel savings - not worth much at
  todays prices.
• Weight reduction affects the CAFÉ penalty that an
  OEM pays to US government.

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Range for a full fuel tank

• Fuel use is higher for larger vehicles
• Larger vehicles have bigger fuel tanks
• Range mile / gal fuel volume in gal
• Observation small and large vehicles carry less
  than 4 percent of vehicle mass in fuel and a
  range of nearly 400 mi or 640 km.
• How much range is enough?

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Fuel economy and vehicle mass

• OEMs look for design changes to reduce mass 50
  kg is a significant mass change.
• Typical heuristic 10 - 5 rule
• Simple model for alternative fuel vehicles
• Fuel use increases directly with mass
• Fuel use varies with type of engine, type of
  fuel, and aerodynamic form

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Design for Performance

• Alternative fuel vehicles will compete with
  conventional vehicles in range and zip
• P/M for a vehicle is the product of two choices
• P/M for the engine, and Mengine/M
• E/M for vehicle depends is product of
• E/Mfuel
• Mfuel/M
• 1 Mtank/Mfuel

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Indy 77
GM EV1
Average P/M 80 W/kg and Average E/M 500 Wh/kg
Mfuel/M 4 for gasoline and diesel
Mtank/Mfuel is small for liquid tanks, large
for pressure vessels
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Metrics for electrical systems

• More non-motive power and mass changes
• Improved efficiency - drive by wire
• New materials
• Caution - main EOL concerns
• copper mixed, bad for ferrous recover but high
  value material if separated
• lead main issue is potential for dissipative
  losses, regulated as toxic and hazardous

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EOL of vehicles

• EU mandates for recycling
• Dismantling and parts recovery
• Shredding and materials recovery
• EOL products
• Ferrous metal
• Non-ferrous metal
• Non-metals called Fluff or ASR

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US AMP Generic Vehicle

• 1995 model Lumina (1510 kg), Taurus (1408 kg),
  and Intrepid (1459 kg)
• 1995 sales 940,023 vehicles of total 7,690,223
  vehicles 12
• Taurus 410,409
• Lumina/Monte Carlo 361,388
• Intrepid 168,226
• 20,000 parts, 9 subsystems

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Generic Vehicle Characteristics -US AMP study

• Fuel
• Fuel economy
• Engine size
• 0 to 60 mph time
• Vehicle use lifetime
• Passengers
• Doors
• Cargo load/volume
• Mass

• Gasoline
• 23 mpg 20/29
• 3 liter, 140 hp_at_4800
• 10.7 sec
• 120,000 miles
• 3 front / 3 rear
• Four
• 200 lbs / 17 cubic ft
• 3200 lb

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Mass fractions by Subsystem

• Body
• Powertrain
• Suspension
• Interior
• HVAC
• Electrical
• Fluids
• Total

• 566 kg or 37
• 347 kg or 23
• 291 kg or 19
• 139 kg or 9
• 45 kg or 3
• 70 kg or 4.5
• 74 kg or 5
• 1532 kg or 100

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Mass Fractions by Material

• Ferrous metals
• Non-ferrous metals
• Plastics
• Other materials
• Fluids
• Total

• 985 kg or 64
• 138 kg or 9
• 143 kg or 9
• 192 kg or 13
• 74 kg or 5
• 1532 kg or 100

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Generic Vehicle - Fluids

• Auto transmission
• Engine oil SAE10w30
• Ethylene glycol
• Glycol ether
• Refrigerant R134a
• Unleaded gasoline
• Water
• Windshield cleaner additives
• Total of fluids

• 6.7 kg or 0.44 of 1532 kg
• 3.5 kg or 0.23
• 4.3 kg or 0.28
• 1.1 kg or 0.069
• 0.91 kg or 0.059
• 48 kg or 3.1
• 9.0 kg or 0.59
• 0.48 kg or 0.031
• 74 kg or 4.8

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USA Metal Management
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Opportunities

• Mass of battery for new vehicles
• Lifetime of battery
• Composition of battery containment, avoid
  dissipation losses
• Fuel economy
• Tail pipe emission reduction draws attention to
  other life cycle concerns