Changing subnational fertility trends in England and Wales

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Changing subnational fertility trends in England
and Wales
Nicola Tromans, Dr Julie Jefferies and Eva
Natamba Fertility Analysis Unit, ONS Centre for
Demography Dr Paul Norman School of Geography,
University of Leeds Pauls research has been
funded by the ESRC's Understanding Population
Trends and Processes programme (RES-163-25-0032)
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Outline

• National trends in fertility since 1986
• Have these same trends occurred by region?
• Fertility trends at LA level
• Relationship between TFR and age patterns of
  fertility (LA level)
• Insight into fertility trends within individual
  LAs
• population subgroups which may influence
  fertility

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Total Fertility Rate, 1986-2007 England and
Wales
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How have age patterns of fertility changed since
1986? (England and Wales)
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Further changes in fertility trends since
1986 (England and Wales)

• Increased of births occurring outside marriage
• 21 per cent of births in 1986
• 44 per cent of births in 2007
• Increased of births to women born outside the
  UK
• 12 per cent of births in 1986
• 23 per cent of births in 2007

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Do regional TFR trends differ from national
trends?
TFR pattern for EW evident for each region - All
regions experience a record low TFR in either
2001 or 2002
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Regional Trends - TFR

• Regions exhibiting the highest and lowest TFRs
• have varied
• Highest TFR
• 1986-1993 North West, West Midlands, Wales
• 1994-2006 West Midlands (1.96 in 2006)
• Lowest TFR
• 1986-1990 London, North East, South East
• 1990-1993 London
• 1994-2005 North East
• 2006 North East and South West (1.79)

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Regional Trends most fertile age group

• In 1986, the most fertile age group in all
  regions was 25-29
• By 2006 the most fertile age group increased to
  30-34 in the East and all southern regions.
• fertility postponement in the south

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Does the TFR trend at local authority level
correspond with the national trend?
Distribution of local authority TFRs 1986, 2001,
2006
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Which local authorities have the highest TFRs?
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Which local authorities have the lowest TFRs?
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How many local authorities experience older age
patterns of fertility in 2006?
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Relationship between TFR and age patterns of
fertility (local authority level)

• Do areas where the TFR is low have lower
  fertility at all ages when compared with areas
  where the TFR is high?

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Mean ASFRs in LAs with highest TFR and LAs with
lowest TFRs 2006
Compared 50 LAs with lowest TFR and 50 LAs with
highest TFR
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• An insight into fertility in individual
• local authorities...

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TFR trends in selected local authorities
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Cambridge age patterns of fertility
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Cambridge Students

• Presence of HE institutions likely to affect
  fertility
• Students lower fertility while studying
• Graduates tend to enter motherhood later
• More noticeable where of students in population
  is high

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Cambridge - births to migrants

• 41 of births in 2006 were to mothers born
  outside UK
• England and Wales 22
• Diverse range of countries including
• 13 EU countries
• 5 USA, Canada, Australia or New Zealand

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How do international migrants affect fertility
levels?

• No clear cut relationship between births to
  non-UK born mothers and level of fertility in an
  area
• considerable variation in fertility levels of
  women from different countries of birth
• Birth registration does not use detailed
  definition of usual residence
• Short term migrants not included in population
  estimates
• 12 month definition of usual residence

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Key findings fertility patterns since 1986

• National TFR patterns are reflected at the
  regional level - not always mirrored at LA level
• In 1986, all regions experienced peak fertility
  at ages 25-29. By 2006 the south had increased to
  30-34
• LAs with relatively high TFRs display much higher
  fertility at younger reproductive ages
• LAs with relatively low TFRs have an older age
  pattern for childbearing
• Population subgroups such as students, graduates
  and migrants can impact upon period fertility in
  LAs.

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Any Questions ?
Nicola.Tromans_at_ons.gov.uk