Energy Policy an Engineer's View

1
"Energy Policy - an Engineer's View"
Michael Laughton, FREng Emeritus Professor of
Electrical Engineering University of London SONE
AGM 24 October 2006
2
World Primary Energy Supply Forecast
The worlds current energy future is
unsustainable IEA World Energy Outlook 2006
Mtoe
Impossible to substitute fossil fuels by any
other source at present levels
?
2005
Only energy from nuclear fuel plus reprocessed
waste, fast reactors and renewables will
be available for a gradual replacement of fossil
fuels
Nuclear Energy
Coal
Gas
Rational use of energy (better energy
efficiency) is also imperative
Oil
Year
Data source Oil, Gas, Colin Campbell/ASPO
2005 Coal-, Nuclear Scenario, LBST 2005
3
UK Electricity Supply 2005
Oil and gas consuming countries will be
increasingly vulnerable to a severe supply
disruption and price shock if (world) rising
demand is left unchecked IEA World Energy
Outlook 2006
Conclusion- A radical future reduction in the
electricity supply dependence on
hydrocarbon sources
4
Renewables

• How much of a contribution can energy from
  renewable sources make to the UK electricity
  supply noting that the economic potential is less
  than the technical potential?
• The UK is particularly well blessed with such
  resources as shown in the next slide.

5
Renewable Energy Sources
Marine Wave (onshore, offshore) Tidal
(barrage, stream) Hydro Large-scale,
Small-scale Wind Onshore, Offshore Solar Pas
sive-, Active-heating, Photovoltaic Geothe
rmal Hot-dry rocks, aquifers Biofuels Waste,
Crops, Landfill gas (combustion, conversion)
6

• The Sustainable Development Commission Report on
  Nuclear Power, March 2006 notes,
• widespread agreement by respected analysts that
  a viable energy future is possible for the UK
  without new nuclear power.
• The data on UK renewable resources suggests that
  the total practical resource is at least 87 of
  current electricity production.
• It is therefore reasonable to state that it is
  theoretically possible to supply all of the UKs
  electricity from renewable sources in the
  long-term especially when combined with energy
  efficiency.

7
Do these conclusions of the Sustainable
Development Commission make sense from a strictly
technical point of view?

• The next slide shows the practical resource
  estimates from the Tyndall Centre totalling
  334TWh or 87 of the current 382 TWh production.
• To translate this total into required generation
  capacities typical load factors of individual
  renewable plants can be applied and the
  respective capacities calculated
• The total approximate capacity required to
  provide this 334TWh is seen to come to 111GW.

8
UK Renewable Energy ResourcesRef Tyndall
Centre (2003) Renewable energy in the
UK-conclusion,, http//www.tyndall.ac.uk/publicat
ions/working_papers/wp22.pd
9
Analysis of the Conclusions of the Sustainable
Development Commission (Continued)

• It is important to realise that with most
  renewable energy sources being uncontrollable
  this 111GW of renewable plant capacity would have
  to have unrestricted access to the electricity
  market in order to supply the 87 of demand.
• BUT total power supply must also meet the
  instantaneous UK power demand (POWER IN POWER
  OUT at all times).
• WHAT IS THIS DEMAND.. ?
• The next slide shows the maximum daily power that
  was supplied to the grid over the past year
  (2005/2006).
• The amount varied only between about 23GW and
  60GW!!!

10
National Grid Daily Load Demand
11
Analysis of the Conclusions of the Sustainable
Development Commission (Continued)

• Obviously the renewable plant capacity cannot
  supply 111GW at any time through an unrestricted
  access to the electricity market.
• Thus renewable energy cannot supply 87 of UK
  electricity demand.
• Hence the SDC assumption is unworkable and other
  means must be found to supplement the energy for
  electricity supply.

12
Transmission limitations

• There is one further problem a significant
  proportion of the UK renewable energy resources
  is in NW Scotland.
• Here major transmission lines are totally absent
  as shown in the next slide.
• The two interconnecting lines to England are
  restricted to only 2200 MW of power transmission
  for system reliability reasons.
• Thus without very major new transmission links
  most of the renewable resources of Scotland are
  unavailable to the UK as a whole!
• In the meantime where is the surplus power from
  such resources to go?

13
Scotlands 400/275kV grid (circa
2000) (Although the network has since been
upgraded the essential features relevant to this
presentation remain the same, namely no major
grid connections in the north-west and only two
400kV interconnecting lines to England)
14
(No Transcript)
15
Scotland transmission limitations
GENERATING CAPACITY Total capacity 9,531 MW of
which Coal Gas 5,070 MW Nuclear 2,440
MW Total 7,510 MW (79)
MAX. DEMAND SMD 5,909 MW
EXPORTS to England Wales Maximum capacity
2,200 MW
Wind 14,270 MW

?
Wind capacity - proposals, scoping,
approved, under construction, operational
- 256 sites, 6472
turbines, 14,270 MW Refs DUKES 2004 Gazetteer
of Wind Power in Scotland, January 2005.
16
Security of power supplies

• The next two slides relate to the study of wind
  generation over the whole country from onshore
  windfarms.
• The question asked is, How much conventional
  plant capacity can be replaced by increasing
  levels of wind capacity without compromising
  security of supply?
• The results from this and other studies show that
  the answer is approximately the square root of
  the GW of wind capacity installed, i.e. 16GW of
  onshore wind capacity would replace 4GW of
  conventional plant, etc.
• How the market would maintain increasingly
  substantial levels of spare capacity in the
  system remains to be seen.

17
Total GB wind power generation distribution to
achieve 5 of electricity generation from wind
Percentage of time over a 5 Year Period
Average hourly generated power MW
Source National Grid PIU Supplementary
Submission 28 Sept 02
TM / ML / 03-04-02
18
Total generation capacity for secure supply
Zero indicates generation balances load. Area to
left of zero is the probability of not meeting
50,000 MW peak demand 10 winters per century
500 MW wind 59,000 MW conventional Spare capacity
9.5GW
7,500 MW wind 57,000 MW conventional Spare
capacity 14.5GW
Source NGC
25,000 MW wind 55,000 MW conventional Spare
capacity 30GW !
 
19
The consequences of not differentiating between
power and energy requirements

• The conclusions of the Sustainable Development
  Commission Report on Nuclear Power are
  absolutely worthless. Even worse they are
  misleading.
• According to all studies on security of supply
  the conventional capacity needed in the British
  National Grid system will always exceed the
  peak demand regardless of the onshore wind
  capacity installed!

So what else might the future hold? First of all
an observation
20
Electricity supply perspectives

• General Criteria
• Reliable energy supplies
• Economic (re industrial costs)
• Affordable (re fuel poverty)
• Environmentally acceptable
• BUT technical requirements for power supply
  also have to be applied ..

21
Electricity supply perspectives

• Example of Engineering requirements
• Good Power Quality
• frequency control within 1
• voltage control
• interruption free power supply
• free of harmonics, surges, etc

• Example of Engineering requirements
• Good Power Quality
• frequency control within 1
• voltage control
• interruption free power supply
• free of harmonics, surges, etc

Conclusion- Electricity supply is not an
unconstrained empty green field in
which any new ideas are workable.
22
Micro-generation ?

• Micro-CHP heat led and increases dependence on
  gas
• Could reduce peak demand but not base load
  capacity
• For single residences too expensive
• May increase not decrease network losses
• Micro-wind..No! An expensive
  marginal supply that cannot supply adequate
  levels of power when needed

23
Electricity to the user via hydrogen?
Electricity from Various Sources
e-
e-
Electrolysis
H2
Hydrogen Economy
Electron Economy
H2
Fuel Cells
?
?
e-
e-
Electricity to the user
Ulf Bossel Euro-CASE - 120606
24
Creation of Hydrogen Energy (1)
Atoms balance
From water by electrolysis
H2O gt H2 ½ O2
The simplicity of the equations conceals many
problems! Consider next the approximate mass and
energy balances involved
2 hydrogen atoms 2 hydrogen atoms
1 oxygen atom 1 oxygen atom

From natural gas by reforming
CH4 2 H2O gt 4 H2 CO2
1 carbon atom 1 carbon atom
8 hydrogen atoms 8 hydrogen atoms
2 oxygen atoms 2 oxygen atoms
Ulf Bossel Euro-CASE - 120606
25
Creation of Hydrogen Energy (2)
Mass balance
Note Large quantities of clean water required.
The bulk handling of hydrogen Is not trivial. Use
of natural gas does not avoid production of
carbon dioxide
From water by electrolysis
H2O gt H2 ½ O2
9 kg H2O 1 kg H2 8 kg O2
From natural gas by reforming
CH4 2 H2O gt 4 H2 CO2
2 kg CH4 4.5 kg H2O 1 kg H2 5.5 kg CO2
1 kg hydrogen replaces approx. 1 (US)Gallon or 4
Litres of gasoline
Ulf Bossel Euro-CASE - 120606
26
Creation of Hydrogen Energy (3)
Energy balance
From water by electrolysis
H2O gt H2 ½ O2
Where does the energy come from to make and
distribute hydrogen?
electrical
energy energy in H2
Reality 1.3 kWh input ? 1 kWh energy in H2
0.3 kWh lost
From natural gas by reforming
CH4 2 H2O gt 4 H2 CO2
Methane energy heat
energy in H2 Reality
1.2 kWh input ? 1 kWh energy in H2 0.2 kWh
lost
Add 60 for hydrogen distribution to customers
Ulf Bossel Euro-CASE - 120606
27
Dimension of Energy Problem
Need 22,500 m3 water/day plus Continuous output
of eight 1-GW power plants for electrolysis,
liquefaction, transport, transfer of LH2!
Frankfurt Airport (2004) 520 jet departures per
day, 50 Jumbo Jets (Boeing 747)
50 Jumbo Jets per day each loaded with 50 t of
liquid hydrogen (instead of 130 t of
kerosene) 2,500 t LH2 or 36,000 m3 LH2/day
At least 25 nuclear power plants plus the entire
water consumption of Frankfurt needed to serve
all 520 jet aircrafts per day at Frankfurt Airport
Energy problems can never be solved by switching
from fossil fuels to hydrogen
Ulf Bossel Euro-CASE - 120606
28
Electricity Delivery from Hydrogen
90 from source or 25 from hydrogen?
Source of Electrical Energy
Consumer
by electrons
100
90
by hydrogen
electrolyser
fuel cell
renewable AC electricity
hydrogen gas
DC electricity
packaged
transported
25 20
transferred
stored
DC
AC
gaseous hydrogen liquid hydrogen
Ulf Bossel Euro-CASE - 120606
29
Consumer Cost of Energy
Energy losses are charged to customers.
Therefore by laws of physics Hydrogen energy
? 1/2 x grid energy Electricity from H2-fuel
cells ? 1/4 x grid energy

• Hydrogen has to compete with its own energy
  source.
• Hydrogen can never win this competition!
• BUT despite the inefficiencies there may well be
  initial
• niche applications, as presently foreseen in
  transport

Ulf Bossel Euro-CASE - 120606
30
Transportation Sector
At present hydrogen is seen as a future fuel for
transport
The main need is for solutions for local
mobility BUT more efficient options than hydrogen
are possible
Ulf Bossel Euro-CASE - 120606
31
Electrical Energy Storage Options
Storage economy depends on service life, cycle
efficiency, initial and operational costs etc.
Service cycles
Efficiency Hydrogen 1,000? 45 Lead acid
batteries 1,000? 70 Compressed air
gt100,000 75 Hydro gt100,000 75
Sodium-Sulfur batteries 2,000? 80
Flywheels gt100,000 85 Li ion
batteries gt100,000 90 Super
capacitors gt100,000 95
Ulf Bossel Euro-CASE - 120606
32
Electricity for Transportation
Generator-to-Wheel Energy Assessment by Patrick
Mazza and Roel Hammerschlag (Lucerne Fuel Cell
Forum 2005, corrected)
Fuel Cells
Batteries
Ulf Bossel Euro-CASE - 120606
33
Potential for Electricity Storage Management for
Transport
Dispersed energy storage units are
grid-connected They are charged by electric power
utility to 80 whenever recharging is needed
to 100 when excess power is available
or at times when surplus power is
inexpensive etc. Electric cars stay
grid-connected when not driven Charging
conditions as above
Dispersed electrical energy storage units could
be managed by electric utilities, not by home or
car owners
Ulf Bossel Euro-CASE - 120606
34
Hydrogen Economy
Inefficiency of Hydrogen Economy given by physics.
But laws of physics cannot be changed by
research programs, votes of parliaments, presiden
tial initiatives, capital investments etc.

• Consumers will choose the low cost solution
• Heating fuels in the home displaced by energy
  conservation
• Electric heating or heat pumps not hydrogen-fired
  boilers,
• Electric cars when available not hydrogen fuel
  cell vehicles for commuting
• in which case..

A HYDROGEN ECONOMY has no past, no present and
no future
35
Conclusions - 1
The Government does not have available enough
in-house independent scientific/engineering
expertise once provided by the Department of
Energy
We need energy strategies based on sound
engineering, not fantasies of NGOs and
environmentalists or policies promoted by Trade
Organisations
Otherwise Energy policy will reflect the
priorities of lunatics running an asylum!
36
Conclusions - 2

• Growing world demand coupled with supply
  constraints (IEA, 2006) and emission limitations
  indicate a major trend to come in the coming
  decades away from hydrocarbons as primary energy
  sources.
• To preserve electricity supplies nuclear and
  renewables will be the compensating replacement
  energy sources that will have to be developed.
• A sensible 20-30 year energy policy has to
  include network transmission considerations,
  especially in the case of the exploitation of
  renewable resources.

37
Conclusions - 3
THE ELECTRICITY ECONOMY NOT THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY
WILL UNDERPIN THE FUTURE ENERGY SCENE
Electricity will provide more energy for homes
and transport whether using hydrogen or other
means of storage and this will require a
substantial increase in base-load generation
capacity.
For a sustainable energy future a substantial new
nuclear build programme is not an option.
IT IS AN ABSOLUTE NECESSITY!