Review of Typhoon DRI Modeling Plans

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Review of Typhoon DRI Modeling Plans Shuyi
S. Chen RSMAS/University of Miami Email
schen_at_rsmas.miami.edu
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OVERVIEW OF MODELING PROJECTS

• Science objectives
• Hypotheses and approaches
• Specific proposed work 1) Process studies
  physical understanding/insights of air-sea
  coupling in the W Pac typhoons, impact in the
  upper ocean, etc., 2) Real-time support for the
  field program in 2010, 3) post-field program data
  analysis, model evaluation, data assimilation
• Current activities
• Plans for the virtual experiment
• Timeline and milestones

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SCIENCE OBJECTIVES

• To better understand and predict TC formation,
  structure, and interactions with the ocean over
  the Western North Pacific
• To implement a consistent air-sea flux
  parameterization in fully coupled
  atmosphere-wave-ocean modeling systems for
  research and operations (Chen Donelan)
• To examine the effects of waves on OML dynamics
• How does sea state variability affect upper ocean
  mixing efficiency (per u) (Harcourt)?
• Strongly forced wind and wave driven upper OBL
  using turbulence resolving large-eddy simulation
  (LES) with explicit wave effects (Sullivian
  McWilliams)
• To advance the development and improvement of
  coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave COAMPS-tropical
  cyclone system through integration of new
  knowledge and technology and to gain new insight
  in the atmosphere-ocean-wave interaction within
  typhoon environments with an emphasis on both the
  atmospheric and oceanic boundary layers (Wang)

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How do these affect air-sea fluxes and tropical
cyclone structure and intensity?
Need a consistent stress for both atmos ocean
through waves !
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From Ko

• Coupling ONFS, SWAN
• possibly COAMPS
• Why typhoons induce upwelling off
• NE Taiwan?
• Why or do curvatures enhance
• upwelling off NE Taiwan?
• EddyKuroshio interaction Why
• 70150 day oscillations? Are they
• typhoon-related?
• Are 30-day oscillations inside the
• Kuroshio typhoon-related?
• Why or do curvatures affect ocean
• waves?

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From S. Wang
Two-Way Coupled COAMPS Hurricane Katrina
Simulation
SST Analysis 06Z 30 Aug 2005
COAMPS-TC SST 12Z 29 Aug 2005
Simulated cold wake behind Katrina is in general
agreement with observations.
Minimum Sea Level Pressure

• Feedback from ocean mixing processes act as a
  break on TC intensification.
• TC intensification break occurs 8 h following
  formation of intense cold wake.

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Mixed Layer Turbulence Resolved in Large Eddy
Simulations (LES)
From R. Harcourt
Hurricane Dennis LHS

• Focus on simulating Lagrangian Float observations
  (DAsaro) of Vertical Kinetic Energy (VKE) and
  mixed layer entrainment during typhoons and
  hurricanes.
• Horizontally homogeneous geometry Forcing
  incudes stress t u 2 and Craik-Leibovitch
  force, using Stokes Drift from the 2D spectra of
  wave models or observations.
• Resolves turbulent Langmuir circulation and
  convective structures
• Vertical Domain 50-200m
• Periodic horizontal 150-400m wide
• Typical grid resolution 1-3 m

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From P, Sullivian
Initial sounding
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• Science Question
• Formation and recover of typhoon-induced cold
  wake What we do and dont know?
• Working Hypotheses
• Processes affecting the formation and recovery
  of typhoon-induced cold wakes
• Ocean inhomogeneous distribution of T, S, and
  current prior to TC
• TC wind structure and intensity (size, radial
  profile, asymmetry, etc.)
• TC translation speed
• TC rainfall (fresh water) influence on
  salinity/mixing
• Surface wave fields influence on turbulence on
  both sides of storm
• Inertial ocean oscillations
• Shear near the base of the thermocline
• Ocean eddies influence on ocean restratification
• Current-topographic (bathymetry) interactions

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X-Y SURFACE PATTERNS OF VERTICAL VELOCITY, z
-1m, WINDS 30m/s
UNIFORM STRESS PLUS VORTEX FORCE
VORTEX FORCE PLUS WAVE BREAKING
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Cloud Clusters Tracking Using Hourly Satellite IR
Data (September 2008)
Guam
Cluster (blue area) T lt 208K
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UM/RSMAS Cloud-Cluster and TC Tracking for the W.
Pacific
Pre-genesis of Jangmi
Pre-genesis of Hagupit
Pre-genesis of Sinlaku
Guam
Taiwan
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AMSR-E SST (10.9 GHz) Sep 22-30, 2008
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TRMM TMI SST (10.9 GHz) Sep 22-29, 2008
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TCS-08 Typhoon Data from Hagupit and Jangmi
Drifter tracks for 7 days after deployment in
front of Haqupit (left panel) and Jangmi (right
panel). Jangmi was sampled by 22 drifters, that
included those operating from Hagupit.
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Change of SST in Hagupit (left) and Jangmi (right)
Jangmi maximum DEL-SST 1.4º C
Hagupit maximum DEL-SST 1.3º C
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Sat/Climo
Motion
NCOM
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Upper ocean temperature in Typhoon Jangmi
(2008) 3DPWP with Sat/Climo initial conditions
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3DPWP with NCOM initial fields
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High-Resolution Multi-nested Vortex-Following
Coupled Model System at University of Miami
UMCM (UM Coupled Atmos-Wave-Ocean Model)

• Mini ensemble MM5 and WRF forecasts using GFS,
  NOGAPS, JMA, and ECMWF forecast fields as initial
  and lateral boundary conditions
• WAVEWATCH III
• 3DPWP initialized with satellite SST Climo
  Obs profiles, or NCOM or HYCOM data assimilation
• HYCOM

12 km
4 km
1.3 km

• Real-time support in 2010
• Virtual experiments
• Research on understanding

Issues to address ocean model initial
conditions, coupled model evaluation and data
assimilation
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Drifter measured sea level air pressure as
functioin of radius from storm center, Hagupit
(left) and Jangmi (right)
11 drifters
22 drifters
Hagupit minimum air pressure 971 mb
Jangmi minimum air pressure 910 mb
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0
100
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2005
2008
2004
All clusters
All clusters
All clusters
Clusters gt 24 h
Clusters gt 24 h
Clusters gt 24 h