Current Situation of Influenza AH5N1 Staff Contingency Plan Guidelines

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Current Situation of Influenza A(H5N1) Staff
Contingency Plan Guidelines
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Confirmed human cases of Human AI H5N1Dec 2003
to 20 Oct 2005
Over-all CFR 51
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Influenza PandemicsWhy are we concerned now?
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Past Influenza Pandemics
1850
1900
30 40 years cycle
H1N1
1950
H2N2
H3N2
No Pandemic for gt 37 years
2000
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Influenza PandemicsWhy are we concerned now?

• 3 pre-requisites to start an influenza pandemic
• Emergence of a new virus to which all are
  susceptible
• Virus is able to replicate and cause disease in
  human
• New virus is transmitted efficiently from
  human-to-human
• H5N1 virus, is the potential candidate, but 3.
  not fulfilled yet
• Geographical extent of the problem
• Reservoirs of infection expanding (range of wild
  birds and ducks) and virus changing
• Number of human infections increasing (c/f last
  year)

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Epidemic curve of Human Avian Influenza (H5N1)
cases(as of 20 Oct 2005)
(cases)
2004
2005
2003
(date of onset)
Note This includes 113 cases with symptoms.
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Avian Flu and Influenza Pandemic,Impact

• During the current H5N1 gt 150 million birds have
  been culled or died direct economic cost to
  affected countries 8-12billion
• Next pandemic may cause very high morbidity and
  mortality in few weeks. It could cause 1 billion
  cases and 2-7 million deaths
• A modest pandemic lasting over one year might
  cause losses as high as 3 of Asia GDP and 0.5
  of world GDP. Presently equivalent to a loss of
  150-200 billion in GDP

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Influenza PandemicsCan they be averted?YES

• Experience of 1997 with H5N1 epidemic in Hong
  Kong, where prompt culling of entire poultry
  population probably averted a pandemic.
• BUT

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Need to

• Reduce Risk (avoid emergence of a new virus)
• Elimination of animal reservoir (FAO, OIE)
  culling, slaughter, vaccine
• Protection of at risk individuals (e.g. cullers)
• Strengthen surveillance (detect infection ASAP)
• Animals (FAO and OIE)
• Humans (diagnostic tests, global reporting)
• Improve pandemic preparedness
• A(H5N1) vaccine development
• Access to antiviral drugs
• Pandemic preparedness plan (national,
  international)
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  and

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• Successful containment depends on epidemiological
  and laboratory capacity of infected countries

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Pandemic Preparedness

• WHO is developing more practical tools and
  providing technical support to countries
• More information
• www.doh.gov.ph and www.wpro.who.int

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Oseltamivir,Tamiflu

• Use for the express purpose of pre-empting the
  pandemic for treatment of cases and contacts (1
  year and above, not symptomatic for more than 2
  days) ?rapid detection of poultry infection and
  human cases
• Is an adjunct measure implemented along with
  social distancing

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Thank you
Office of the Representative for the Philippines