Current Events In ActivityBased Modeling

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Current Events InActivity-Based Modeling

• Ken Cervenka, P.E., AICP
• North Central Texas Council Of Governments
• For
• AMPO Travel Modeling Work Group Meeting
• Houston, Texas
• March 20, 2006

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Agenda

• Current Agency Activities
• Responses From Focus Groups
• TRB Innovations In Modeling Conference
• Strategies For Advancing The Model Profession

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Current Agency Activities

• Models In Place And In Operation
• SFCTA (San Francisco County)
• NYMTC (New York MPO)
• MORPC (Columbus, Ohio MPO)
• Models Under Development By Consultants
• DRCOG (Denver MPO)
• SACOG (Sacramento MPO)

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Current Agency Activities (Cont.)

• Models Under Development By Universities
• FAMOS (Tampa Area Testing)
• CEMDAP (Dallas-Fort Worth Area Testing)
• Others
• ARC (Atlanta MPO)
• MTC (San Francisco/Oakland MPO)
• TRANSIMS (Portland Case Study)

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MPO CoalitionActivity Model Listserv

• Mission Statement
• MPO Coalition for the Examination and
  Advancement
• of Activity-Based Models for Use in
  Transportation
• Planning Applications
• 27 MPOs (97 Million People) Are Represented
• 34 Of Total U.S. Population (Census 2000)
• 46 Of All MPO Population

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Academic/Consultant E-MailFocus Group--Question 1

• Do YOU think activity-based models (ABMs)
• are the appropriate "wave of the future" for a
• significant near-term (within five years)
• advancement of the U.S. travel model practice?
• 38 Responses

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Focus Group--Question 2

• Assume 2 million a year for the next five years
• (10 million) of unexpected monies were made
• available for advancing/improving land
• use/travel demand modeling tools. How would
• YOU suggest this money be spent?
• 27 Responses

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Focus Group--Question 3

• What do YOU consider the right path for
• MPOs to take, when it comes to implementation
• of land use/demographic forecasting tools?
• 17 Responses

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Focus Group--Question 4

• What should be the role of the federal
• government (especially U.S. DOT) in
• advancing the travel modeling profession?
• 5 Responses

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Focus Group--Question 5

• How should one go about testing an existing
• activity-based model, to determine its readiness
• for real-world model applications use?
• 4 Responses

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Focus Group--Question 6

• What are the questions we should expect
• robust land use and transportation models to
• help us resolve?

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TRB Innovations In TravelDemand Modeling
Conference

• 130 p.m. Sunday, May 21, 2006
• To
• 230 p.m. Tuesday, May 23, 2006
• Austin, Texas (Hyatt Regency)

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Preliminary Agenda

• Sunday Workshops (130 to 500 p.m.)
• Innovations In Practice
• FTA Findings For Meaningful Forecasts
• Data And Survey Issues

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Preliminary Agenda

• Monday Morning Plenary Sessions
• Overview Of The Policy Issues
• Moving Innovative Models Into Practice

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Preliminary Agenda

• Monday Afternoon Concurrent Sessions 1
• Tour Based Models
• Data And Synthetic Populations
• Land Use Forecasting
• Monday Afternoon Concurrent Sessions 2
• Activity Based Models
• Survey Methods
• Assignment Advances

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Preliminary Agenda

• Tuesday Morning Concurrent Sessions 3
• Education And Outreach
• Emerging Modeling Considerations
• Validation
• Tuesday Morning Concurrent Sessions 4
• Transitioning To A New Model Framework
• Data And Future Travel Behavior

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Tuesday Afternoon Closing PlenaryNext Steps
Institutional Issues

• Round Table Discussion By Eight MPO Model
• Practitioners
• Larry Blain (Seattle) Salvador Gonzalez (El
  Paso)
• Ron Milone (Washington, D.C.) Chuck Purvis
  (San Francisco)
• Chris van Slyke (Houston) Aichong Sun
  (Tucson)
• Dick Walker (Portland) and Kemit Wies
  (Chicago)

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Strategies For Consideration (1)

• We Need A Very Clear Picture Of Who Is Doing
• What
• The TRB Innovations In Modeling Conference
  Will
• Set The Stage For Good Documentation
• Both Successes And Failures Are Important
• Rigorous Assessment Of Modeling Tools
• Not Just Activity Models Should Be Tested
• Both Implemented And Estimated Models
• Guidelines For Dynamic Validation Tests

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Strategies For Consideration (2)

• More Basic Research To Better Understand
• (And Calculate) Behavioral Responses
• Some Original Explorations Still Needed
• Some Directed Efforts May Also Be Needed
• Applied Research Leading To Implementations
• Individual Or Pooled Funding Efforts?
• Rigorous Review Of All New Implementations
• A Need For An Active, Up-to-Date Knowledge
  Base