Decision Making In A Complex Environment

1
(No Transcript)
2
(No Transcript)
3
(No Transcript)
4
(No Transcript)
5
(No Transcript)
6
(No Transcript)
7
(No Transcript)
8
Decision Making In A Complex Environment
9
Introduction

• Biggest Industrial Merger in History
• Decision already made
• German-American Merger
• ANP and AHP Model

10
Background

• Globalization sets Trend towards Mergers
• Daimler-Benz acquired Chrysler for 36 Billion
• Merger of Equals
• Little Overlap between both Companies
• Operations in Europe and USA

11
Stakeholder

• Manager (Executive)
• Employees (of both companies)
• Shareholders
• Public (from two different countries)
• Government (Germany and USA)

12
ChryslerMerger-No Merger Benefit Cost Model

• BENEFITS
• Financial
• ? Market Value and Share, etc.
• Intangible
• ? Competition, Image, etc.
• Organizational
• ? Location, Culture, etc.
• Post-Merger
• ? Technology

• COSTS
• Financial
• ? Acquisition Restucturing, etc.
• Intangible
• ? Politics, Unemployment etc.
• Organizational
• ? Human Resources, etc.
• Post-Merger
• ? Underutilization, RD

13
Results

• Alternative Synthesized Weights
• Benefits Costs
• Merger 0.793 0.615
• No Merger 0.207 0.385

Alternative B/C Normalized Merger
1.28943 70,57 No Merger 0.53766
29,43
14
Hong Kong, China and Financial Centers in Asia
in the Year 2000
The team
A presentation
15
The structure of the Financial Center Model (ANP
model) the Control Hierarchy
16
Financial Center Model (ANP) Structure of
Eco-nomic Benefit Sub-model (1 out of 12
sub-models)
17
Chinese Government Policy Model (AHP model)
Structure of the Benefit Sub-model
18
Presentation Overview
Discussion
Recommendation
Results- Interpretations
Logical Model, ANP/ AHP Models
Research, Used Expert Knowledge
Research Questions- Relevance
19
Research Questions- Relevance
20
Potential Financial Centers in Asia- the
Alternatives
21
The Logical Model
Influence
SituationBefore
SituationAfter
Time
July 1997Reunification
2000
Now
22
MethodologyThe ANP/ AHP Models
Provides importantfactors to focus on
2nd Judgements based on the policy package
ChinesePolicies
Financial Center-Factors
Hong KongAfter
Time
July 1997Reunification
2000
Now
23
Critera for a Location to become a Financial
Center in Asia
24
Results- DescriptionFinancial Center Model
25
Results- Description Financial Center Model
26
Results- Interpretations
Year 2000