THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED

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THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED
14 Aug 2005
Climate Community
Climate Test Bed
Research Development
NOAA Climate Forecast Operations

Mission to accelerate the transition of research
and development into improved NOAA operational
climate forecasts, products, and applications.
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OUTLINE

• Motivation
• Short Term Plans
• CTB Framework
• Infrastructure
• Transition Projects (Competitive Grants Program)
• Long Term Plans
• Engaging the Community
• Multi-Agency Participation
• Organization
• Budget
• Milestones
• Expected Outcomes

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MOTIVATION(Scientific)

• NCEP has developed and tested a new fully coupled
  Climate Forecast System (CFS) for use in S/I
  applications that shows considerable promise.
• The CFS is a significant step forward in
  forecasting ENSO related SST variability, having
  achieved at least parity with statistical
  forecasts.
• Faster development of NOAA climate forecast
  systems is needed to improve on these forecasts
  and to provide more useful climate forecast
  products and applications.
• Supporting NOAA climate forecast systems for use
  by climate researchers is an optimal way to
  leverage the expertise of NOAA and the external
  community in order to accelerate the necessary
  improvements.

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Skill in SST Anomaly Prediction Niño 3.4 (DJF
97/98 DJF 03/04)
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MOTIVATION(Programmatic)

• In order to achieve the blend of internal and
  external efforts required to improve NOAA
  operational climate forecast systems, a Climate
  Test Bed (CTB) facility has been organized.
• The CTB will
• provide more traction and visibility to
  intraseasonal-to-decadal climate research by
  accelerating the transition to NOAA climate
  forecast operations
• provide an operational testing environment to
  support projects that result in a direct
  influence on NOAA climate forecast operations
• provide infrastructure and resources for (long
  term, AO-driven, community-wide) projects on
  broader research issues affecting NOAA climate
  forecast operations.

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CTB ACTIONS

• In order to accelerate improvements in NOAA
  climate forecasts, products and applications the
  CTB must define a process to
• Clearly identify and communicate the scope of
  responsibilities for the climate research
  community, the NOAA operational centers, and the
  applications community.  
• Clearly identify and delineate different types of
  transition
• Research to Operations define where the
  operational center picks up responsibility, and
  at what juncture a "hand-off" from the research
  community occurs.
• Operations to Applications define where the
  applications community picks up responsibility,
  and at what juncture a hand-off from the
  operations community occurs.
• Identify resources for research, operations and
  applications to ensure smooth transitions.  

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Applying the Funnel to the Transition Process
Research and Development
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• Large volume of RD,
• funded through AOs,
• Agency Labs
• Smaller set of RD
• products suitable for
• operations.
• 3. Systematic transition steps
• R2O.
• 4. Systematic transition steps
• O2A
• Delivery to diverse USER
• community

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R2O
NCEP is uniquely positioned to provide an
operational infrastructure for the transition
process
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N C E P
Operations
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O2A User Community
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RESEARCH TO OPERATIONS STEPS

• The Path to implementation of changes in the NCEP
  operational climate model suite consists of the
  following seven steps
• Model development and refinement
• Preliminary assessment
• Calibration
• Interface with operations
• Final skill assessment
• Parallel tests
• Approval

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OPERATIONS TO APPLICATIONS STEPS

• The Path for operational tools to be consolidated
  into the CPC seasonal forecasts consists of the
  following general steps
• Retroactive runs for each tool (hindcasts)
• Assigning weights to each tool
• Systematic error correction
• Specific Output Variables (T2m precip for US
  SST Z500 for global)
• Available in real-time
• The Path for operational models, tools and
  datasets to be delivered to a diverse user
  community
• NOMADS server
• System and Science Support Teams

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FRAMEWORK

• Infrastructure
• Computing Support (1/3rd NOAA Red Research
  Computer)
• System and Science Support Teams (models, data,
  diagnostics)
• Contractors, Technical Assistants, System
  Administrators
• Management and Administrative Staff
• Director, Deputy, Secretary, Program Assistant
• Transition Projects
• Base (internally) Funded
• Short Term potential for impact on operations
  in 2 years or less
• FTEs reallocated from NCEP and other line
  offices
• Announcements of Opportunity
• Long term potential for impact on operations in
  2 or more years
• Projects are reviewed, competitive, community
  wide, broader science issues
• NOAA or external lead PIs
• Multi-agency (NOAA, NASA, DOE, etc)

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CURRENT CTB RESOURCES

• NCEP Contributions
• Computing Support (1/3 of the NOAA Red Computer)
• 23 Redirected FTEs
• Management Team 0.5 (CPC) 0.25 (EMC) 0.25
  (CPC)
• System Support Team (data, software) 4 (CPC)
  0.5 (EMC)
• CPC Scientists 16
• EMC Scientists 1.5
• NOAA Climate Program Office
• Augmentation funding for CTB Infrastructure ( 1
  System Support TA in FY05, FY06) Some additional
  funding for near term transition projects.
• Funding for AO-driven competitive science
  projects (FY06)

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CTB TRANSITION PROJECTS

• Base (internally) Funded (FY05) Short Term
  plans
• Assessments of NCEP operational climate forecast
  systems (CFS/GFS)
• Consolidation of operational forecast tools
• Multi-model ensemble system development and data
  management
• Announcements of Opportunity (FY06 ) Long
  Term plans
• Multi-model ensemble system development MM
  climate forecasts and applications Attribution
• Model development through CPTs
• Drought monitoring and prediction support NIDIS
  
• Improve warm season precipitation prediction
• Development of application products (e.g. fire,
  agriculture, energy, water resources)
• Climate Reanalysis Ongoing Analysis of the
  Climate System
• Advanced forecast capabilities (e.g. ecosystems
  air chemistry carbon cycle fisheries)

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COMMUNITY INVOLVEMENT(SAB Teleconference 15 Feb
2005)

• The research community should be involved at all
  levels.
• external membership on SAB, CST
• bi-directional flow of information /
  opportunities multi-agency participation
• sufficient internal human resources to engage and
  support the external community (System and
  Science Support Teams).
• The CTB must develop meaningful partnerships with
  various NOAA line organizations and external
  stakeholders.
• observational requirements required to advance
  prediction skill coordinated within NOAA
• connection with NWS/OHD, including the National
  Hydrologic Prediction System
• Connection to the international research
  community
• Connection to NIDIS.
• The SAB membership should be broadened to include
  the private sector and additional international
  participants.

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CTB LINKS TO
OTHER PROGRAMS

• CLIVAR, GEWEX and Joint CLIVAR GEWEX Programs
• U.S. (NOAA Climate and Global Change Program -
  CDEP, CPPA, CLIVAR)
• International (WCRP VAMOS NAME, MESA, VOCALS,
  AMMA)
• CLIVAR Climate Process and modeling Teams (CPTs)
• NASA-NOAA-DOD Joint Center for Satellite Data
  Assimilation
• Provides atmosphere, ocean, land surface data
  assimilation infrastructure
• Improved use of satellite data (Climate
  applications, reanalysis issues, observing system
  stability)
• Support Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF)
• GFDL and NCEP codes are becoming ESMF compatible
• Other Agencies (DOE, NASA, USDA, etc)

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CTB LINKS TO NOAA OGP

• CLIVAR, GEWEX and Joint CLIVAR GEWEX Programs
• CPPA
• Climate Process and modeling Teams (NAME warm
  season precip forecasts)
• Drought monitoring and prediction ( LDAS - soil
  moisture NIDIS)
• Hydrologic prediction (H2O Resource Mgmt)
• CLIVAR Pacific
• Predictability of climate variability (ENSO, MJO,
  AO) in CFS/GFS on ISI timescales
• CLIVAR Atlantic
• Predictability of Atlantic Marine ITCZ related
  rainfall in CFS/GFS on ISI timescales
• CDEP ARCS / IRI
• Seasonal climate forecast products / tools
  (drought, agriculture, fire applications)
• Multi-model ensembles (FY06)
• Quantification of predictability

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Climate Prediction Program for the Americas
(CPPA) FY07 and Beyond

• VAMOS Ocean-Clouds-Atmosphere-
• Land Studies (VOCALS)
• Follow-on to EPIC to examine
• processes modulating SE Pacific stratus
• Implementation Plan being developed

VOCALS
MESA
LBA

• Monsoon Experiment over South America (MESA)
• Follow-on to LBA and SALLJEX
• Contribute to La PLATIN to develop models of
• the atmosphere-land-ocean system for successful
• prediction of climate and hydrology of La Plata
  basin
• IntraAmericas Seas and North American Climate?
• Western Mountain Observational Campaign?
• Hydrologic Prediction Demonstration Project

SALLJEX
PLATIN
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CTB ORGANIZATION
Oversight Board CPC CDC EMC GFDL IRI NCPO
Science Advisory Board
Director Higgins
Program Manager Ji
Deputies Pan Gelman
Climate Science Team EMC CPC CDC GFDL NASA
NCAR OST OCCWS EMC GFDL CPC CDC (Focal Points)
Science / Software Support from Contractors
TAs, SAs
Test Bed Users
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CHARGES FOR OB, CST, AND SAB

• Oversight Board (OB)
• Makes recommendations to Directors of NOAA
  Climate Program Office and NCEP concerning the
  CTB activities.
• Climate Science Team (CST)
• Guides CTB activities at the working level
  evaluates results of CTB activities makes
  recommendations to the CTB management on
  computing resource usage and access
• Science Advisory Board (SAB)
• Works with the broader climate community to
  provide independent advice on high-priority
  scientific challenges coordinates with other
  programs (e.g., CLIVAR, GEWEX)
• Complete ToR and Responsibilities are on the CTB
  Website http//www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ct
  b

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CTB FY05 ACCOMPLISHMENTS

• Q1 Establish and maintain CTB Annual Budget
• Q1 Annual Operating Plan (4 CTB NTOPs)
• Q2 Initiated CTB Infrastructure
• Q2 Established OB, CST and SAB
• Q2 Implemented CTB website
• Q2 CTB ToR , White Paper and Transition to
  Operations Plan
• Q3 - CTB Competitive Transition Projects AO
• Q4 - Establish MM science team (peer reviewed)
• Q1 CFS Assessment Meeting (WWB/NCEP, November
  16, 2004)
• Outcome Established 6 CTB TRANSITION
  PROJECT TEAMS
  Model Parameterization, Model Sensitivity,
  Diagnostics,
  Climate Data Assimilation,
  Multi-Model Ensembles,
  Climate
  Products and Applications

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MILESTONES (FY06-FY07)

• CTB Science and Implementation Plan
• Establish CTB System Support Team
• Establish CTB Science Support Team
• Establish CTB Visiting Scientist Program
• CTB Competitive Transition Projects AO
• Transition GFDL model to CTB for multi-model
  testing.
• Implement operational consolidation of Climate
  Prediction Center (CPC) forecast tools

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MILESTONES (FY08-FY11)

• Complete experimental testing of tier-1
  multi-model ensemble forecast system (EMCGFDL)
• Transition NASA model to CTB
• Transition CCSM (NCAR) model to CTB
• Complete experimental testing of tier-1
  multi-model ensemble forecast system
  (EMCGFDLCCSMNASA)
• Bring operational drought monitoring and
  prediction on line

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CTB OUTCOMES

• New and improved data sets and components for
  NOAA climate models
• New and improved methods to provide more
  accurate ISI climate forecasts
• New and improved application products to
  effectively communicate
• operational climate forecasts for end users
  (e.g., water resource, agriculture,
• energy, fire risk)
• Greater understanding of operational model
  strengths/weaknesses via
• assessment and detailed analyses of model
  diagnostics
• Improved use of climate observations for
  enhanced operational climate
• forecast and application products
• Evaluation and refined requirements for
  observing systems.

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CTB MEETINGS

• Annual Meeting (October)
• to evaluate current CTB activities and to
  establish future science priorities for CTB
  collaborative transition projects.
• Management Team Meetings (monthly)
• to discuss progress on current CTB activities and
  plans for the future.
• Teleconferences (as needed)
• The CST, SAB, and OB hold occasional
  teleconferences with the CTB Management Team on
  focused topics. Powerpoint presentations /
  meeting minutes are posted.
• Board Meetings (annual)
• At least once per year the SAB meets in executive
  session to discuss progress on CTB activities and
  to make recommendations for future science
  priorities.