Baltic Tangent seminar

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Baltic Tangentseminar

• 20.-21.06.2005
• Erkki Jaakkola
• matrex oy

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matrex oy(Management Transportation Experts
Matrex Oy)

• STAN, The Modelling Software

• Frisbee (STAN application)
• And cases

• 20.06.2005

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An overview of the services and resources of
Matrex Oy

• Matrex Oy specialises in transportation systems
  and management consulting. The companys
  operating principle is to work together with
  clients and to enable them to carry out projects
  independently. Matrex Oy provides
  state-of-the-art know-how and support services.
• Matrex Oy, established in 1993, has special
  expertise in strategic transportation planning
  and analyses at national, regional and city
  levels. Matrex Oy has excellent competence in the
  fields of transport demand models and pavement
  management systems.
• Matrex Oy is the distributor of the EMME/2 and
  STAN software packages in Finland, and provides
  training their use. These packages support an
  integrated state-of-the-art approach to passenger
  and freight transport planning and analysis.

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Personnel and Expertise

• Matrex Oy has always emphasised high quality
  expertise, provided by the following persons
• Mr. Tapani Särkkä (M Sc. in Civil Engineering,
  the chairman of the board) is responsible for
  Matrex Oy administration, transportation system
  planning, distribution of EMME/2 and STAN
  software and training
• Mr. Erkki Jaakkola (M Sc. in Civil Engineering,
  the financial director) is responsible for
  freight transportation systems planning and STAN
  applications.
• Mr. Petri Blomqvist (M Sc. in Systems and
  Operations Research, Project Manager) is
  responsible for transport modelling, programming
  and data base applications (e.g. Oracle)
• Mr. Ville Koskinen (M Sc. in Systems and
  Operations Research, Project Manager) specialises
  in transport modelling, programming and data base
  applications
• Mr. Petja Partanen (M Sc. in Civil Engineering,
  transport planner, specialises in public transit,
  EMME/2 macro programming, and is responsible for
  the companys publications)

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Markets and Clients

• The main markets are in the public sector, there
  the big organizations
• Ministry of Transport and Communication (MinTC)
• Finnish Road Administration (FinnRA)
• Finnish Civil Aviation Administration (FCAA)
• Finnish Railway Administration
• Cities and municipalities
• Helsinki Metropolitan Area Cooperation Council
  (YTV)
• Provinces
• Etc.
• Matrex acts often as a subcontractor for other
  consultants
• Foreign clients include the Portuguese Road
  Administration (IEP), DGTREN/EU, COWI (DK), SIKA
  (SE), SINTEF (NO), TIS (P)
• Matrex has had cooperation with SAP Finland,
  Accenture and BPS Finland among others

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The Modelling software (STAN)

• STAN Strategic Transportation ANalysisThe
  objective of STAN is to assist the strategic
  planning of multiproduct multimode transportation
  systems. The aim is to correctly represent the
  elements of the system, to capture their
  interactions, and to obtain an overall estimation
  of the movements of most (all) products, by
  most (all) of the modes available, following
  various assignment criteria and scenario
  definitions.The modelling approach as well as
  the initial version of STAN, were developed in
  the late 80s at the Center for Research on
  Transportation (C.R.T.) of the University of
  Montréal. Since 1988, technical support and
  development has been provided by INRO Consultants
  (www.inro.ca)

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Model components (STAN)
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Model components (STAN)
Functions attempt to capture the criteria used to
determine how traffic is moved over the network,
and may include factors relative to travel costs
and time, congestion phenomena, environmental
preoccupations, energy prices, or any other
performance measure
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Network elements (STAN)hierarchy and attributes
!
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STANInput and output of a multiproduct multimode
assignment
The demand is assigned on the networks minimizing
the system costs (system optimum). During the
assignment the whole transport chain is
considered both the optimum route and optimum
modes will be found and used.
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STAN

• A typical use of the strategic freight model is
  the comparison and evaluation of alternatives.
• The contemplated alternatives usually represent
  anticipated or predicted variations in the origin
  to destination demands for the products
  considered, major changes to the transportation
  infrastructure or technology, or modifications to
  the regulatory or economic (e.g. energy prices)
  environment.
• Usually, an existing situation is described by
  one of the scenarios in the data bank (base
  scenario). A simulation of the freight flows is
  carried out.
• Future situations are described by other
  scenarios. The simulation of freight flows is
  carried out on these scenarios as well.
• Then flows, link costs and delays, inter modal
  shipments and other performance indicators may be
  compared with those of the base scenario in order
  to carry out various analyses and comparison
  evaluations.

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Freight Transport Model in the Baltic Sea and
Barents Regions (STAN application)
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FRISBEE
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FRISBEE Background
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FRISBEE Objectives and the scope
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FRISBEEContents

• Truck/Road
• Train/Rail
• Inland waterways
• Truck-Ferry (Ro-Ro)
• Car Truck Ferry
• Bulk (tramp traffic)
• LO-LO
• Rail-Ferry, RO-RO
• (Gas and oil pipe)
• (Air cargo)

Unit costs in the model denote all factors
affecting transport volumes and particularly the
route choice of freight transport, which can be
described as commensurable
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FRISBEE Supply Road Network (for truck mode)
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FRISBEE SupplyRoad Network in Poland
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FRISBEE SupplyNetwork
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FRISBEE Supply Rail network (for train mode)
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FRISBEE Supply Sea network (bulk, tramp traffic)
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FRISBEE Supply Sea network (truck ferry and
Lo-Lo shipping routes)
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FRISBEE Zones (215)The demand of freight has
its origins and destinations in zones, which are
connected to the transport networks.
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FRISBEE Demand Commodity groups from zone to
zone (area to area)export and import of
countriesThe products to be transported are
aggregated to 12 commodities, which have similar
characteristics.
(1.) A Food and live animals (2.) B Beverages
and tobacco (3.) C Crude materials, inedible,
except fuels (4.) D Mineral fuels, lubricants
(exl. gas) (5.) E Animal and vegetable oils,
fats and waxes (6.) F Chemicals and related
products, n.e.s. (7.) G Paper and paper
manufactures (8.) H Manufactured goods of
metals (9.) I Manufactured goods (exl. paper and
metal) (10.) J Machinery and transport equipment
(exl. electr. etc) (11.) K Miscellaneous
manufactured articles (exl. electr. etc) (12.) L
Office machines, apparatus and instruments
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FRISBEE Demand Commodity groups
(1) A Food and live animals Live animals Meat and
meat preparations Dairy products and birds
eggs Fish (not marine mammals) and preparations
thereof Cereals and cereal preparations Vegetables
and fruit Sugars, sugar preparations and
honey Coffee, tea, cocoa, spices, and
manufactures thereof Feeding stuff for animals
(not including unmilled cereals) Miscellaneous
edible products and preparations (2) B Beverages
and tobacco Beverages Tobacco and tobacco
manufactures (3) C Raw materials, inedible,
except fuels Hides, skins and fur skins,
raw Oil-seeds and oleaginous fruit Crude rubber
(including synthetic and reclaimed) Cork and
wood Pulp and waste paper Textile fibres and
their waste Crude fertilizers and crude
minerals Metalferous ore and metal scrap Crude
animal and vegetable materials (4) D Mineral
fuels, inedible, execpt fuels Coal, coke and
briquettes Petroleum, petroleum products and
related materials (5) E Animal and vegetable
oils, fats, waxes Animal oils and fats Fixed
vegetable oils and fats, refined or
fractionated Animal or vegetable oils and fats,
processed (6) F Chemicals and related
products Organic chemicals Inorganic
chemicals Dyeing, tanning and colouring
materials Medicinal and pharmaceutical
products Essential oils, resinoids and perfume
materials Fertilizers Plastics in primary
forms Plastics in non-primary forms Chemical
materials and product
(7) G Paper, paper board, paper pulp Paper and
paperboard and articles thereof (8) H Metal
products Iron and steel Non-ferrous
metals Manufactures of metals (9) I Manufactured
goods Leather, leather manufactures and dressed
fur skins Rubber manufactures Cork and wood
manufactures (excluding furniture) Textile yarn,
fabrics, made-up articles Non-metallic mineral
manufactures (10) J Machinery Power-generating
machinery and equipment Machinery specialized for
particular industries Metalworking
machinery General industrial machinery and
equipment Road vehicles Other transport
equipment (11) K Miscellaneous manufactured
items Prefabricated buildings sanitary,
plumbing, heating and lighting fixtures and
fittings Furniture and parts thereof Travel
goods, handbags and similar containers Articles
of apparel and clothing accessories Footwear Misce
llaneous manufactured articles (12) L Valuable
machinery, manufactured articles Office machines
and automatic data-processing machines Telecommuni
cations and sound-recording and reproducing
apparatus and equipment Electrical machinery,
apparatus and appliances Professional, scientific
and controlling instruments and
apparatus Photographic apparatus, equipment and
supplies and optical goods
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FRISBEE Demand Aggregated (Total) Frisbee
demand, 1000 t/a(Derived from Eurostat, year
1995)Russia data, year 2001/2003
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FRISBEE Demand(1000 t/a)
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FRISBEE Demand (1000 t/a)
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FRISBEE Demand (1000 t/a)

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FRISBEE Demand Exports from one zone in Finland
(excl. Russia)
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FRISBEE Demand Import from Russia to one zone
in Finland (y. 2000)
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FRISBEE Cost components in functions

• By mode, by commodity and by country, for links
  and transfers (defined at market price)
• for the transport phase (euros/ton-km) and for
  the terminal phase (euros/ton)
• Operation costs (Average)
• The level of service
• Risk of damage
• Reliability
• Value of goods
• Transport time (Average lead time)
• Frequency (sea transport)

Unit costs in the model denote all factors
affecting transport volumes and particularly the
route choice of freight transport, which can be
described as commensurable.
Operating costs are not the only factors
affecting the mode and route of transport in
long-distance freight flows!
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FRISBEE Cost components
The relative value of unit cost components for
every commodity in relation to the operation cost
of commodity H (1, metal products).
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FRISBEE Cost components
Operating costs in the Frisbee model for every
mode, cents per ton km (base year 2000). (The
unit cost depends on the commodity group)
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FRISBEE Possible Frisbee applications in
analysis
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FRISBEE Some development case studies

• Reduced fairway dues
• Road fees on TEN -road network
• Corridor 9A Freight Model (Corridor II)
• PolCorridor
• Klaipeda Port Study
• Swedish Transit Freight Matrices
• EUVELI-project
• Transport connections between the EU and Russia.
  Current status and outlook for the future
• SRLog (Work Package 2), (one case touch on Via
  Baltic connection)

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FRISBEE Development case studies

• SRLog (Work Package 2)
• (one case touch on Via Baltic connection)
• The logistics and the location of the three
  regions, EKES, Umeå and Wielkopolska, as a part
  of the European logistical freight markets
  infrastructure and freight flows using railway
  transport regional needs and possibilities for
  location oriented business and entrepreneurship,
  taking advantage of good railway connections and
  transport potentials

Very rough estimation!!
X EKES
X Berlin
X Wiel.
Freight flows between Berlin-EKES and
Wielkopolska-EKES. The unit costs were calculated
for the Baltic Sea route and for Via Baltica
(road and rail).
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FRISBEE case Via Baltic connection (SRLog
project)Improved connections and faster border
crossing
Very rough estimation!!
Assumptions on Via Baltic connection

• The border crossing formalities are assumed to
  be at the same level as they generally are in
  Europe (road and rail).
• The speed of trains is assumed to be three times
  faster than it is today.
• The bogie is being changed in the border of
  Kaliningrad and Poland (different rail gauge).
• It is also assumed that there is train ferry
  going between Helsinki and Tallinn.

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FRISBEE case Via Baltic connection (SRLog
project)
Unit price index of transport from Berlin and
Wielkopolska to EKES-region for food products
(group A). Transport by sea is 100. Road and rail
transports are through Tallinn.
Train transport through Kaliningrad and Tallinn
is still slightly more expensive alternative and
also pricier than road transport. Even if the
operating costs of train are less than for
trucks, the handling times at port and terminals
(ships, trains) are longer than in road
transport. The change of gauge takes time and
causes more costs of trains, too.
Very rough estimation!!
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FRISBEE case Via Baltic connection (SRLog
project)
Transport time index of transport from
Wielkopolska to EKES -region. Transport by sea is
100.
Via Baltica, after the improvements of service
level, will be speedier (but slightly more
expensive) than the sea route for the freight
between Wielkopolska and Finland
Very rough estimation!!
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FRISBEE case Via Baltic connection (SRLog
project)
Very rough estimation!!
Commodity group C (e.g. paper mass, metal scrap)
Commodity group A (daily goods)
The best routes from Southern Finland. Shadowed
areas Via Baltica will be used The Baltic Sea
and port of Gdansk will be used.
The best routes from Southern Finland. Shadowed
areas Via Baltica will be used The Baltic Sea
and port of Gdansk will be used
Via Baltica will provide a competitive
alternative for transports to Eastern Europe,
where transport speed is important. Sea transport
will remain competitive for transports between
Finland and Germany (Berlin).
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FRISBEE case SRLog What will happen if the
operating costs (market prices) in road transport
would rise 10, 15, 20 and 30  in Poland?
Sensitivity of changes in the share of transport
work (ton km) of road and rail transports if the
operating cost increases on Polish roads (does
not apply to domestic transport)
A Food (daily goods) F Chemicals and related
products (dangerous goods) K Miscellaneous
manufactured articles (e.g. furniture)
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FRISBEE case Corridor 9A with corridor II
Russian export and import freight flows to, from
and through St. Petersburg and Leningrad Oblast

• Assuptions
• 1. Corridori II Moscow Berlin has
• A road connection of motorway class
• Direct unit train service Moscow Warsaw
  Berlin
• Border delays the same as at EU external borders
  in general (2 hours).
• 2. Corridor 9 A has similar infrastructure
  (motorway and fast railway)

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FRISBEE case Corridor 9A with corridor II
Russian export and import freight flows to, from
and through St. Petersburg and Leningrad Oblast
Export on railway network / Corridor II
improved (Of the Russian export is included 66,6
milj. tonnes)
Export on railway network/ Corridor II not
improved (Of the Russian export is included 66,6
milj. tonnes)
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FRISBEE case Corridor 9A with corridor II
Comparison between current scenario and scenario
Corridor II improved

• Russian export (Of the Russian export is included
  66,6 milj. tonnes)
• Changes on railway network
• Increase Decline

Russian export (Of the Russian export is included
66,6 milj. tonnes) Changes of sea transport
Increase Decline
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FRISBEE case Corridor 9A with corridor II
How much Russian export must grow in order to
utilise fully the planned port expansions? (St.
Petersburg 60 -70 M tons, Ust Luga 35 M tons,
Vysotsk 10 M tons)
Export through the St. Petersburg Port (million
tons) under different transport system scenarios.
In Frisbee assignment the export (million tons)
of Russia was
66,6 66,6 66,6
100 133,2
166,5
Corridor II German prices
Corridor II Russian prices
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Freight Transport Tariffs
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FRISBEE case EUVELI Transport connections
between the EU and Russia. Current status and
outlook for the future
Russias main transport routes to the west
import, export and transit traffic in 2003,
million tonnes/year. Source Mahlin, 2004.
Scenario of Russias main transport route to the
west import, export and transit traffic in the
year 2030, million tonnes/year.
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FRISBEE case EUVELI (Transport connections
between the EU and Russia. Current status and
outlook for the future)
Russian export and import.
Decrease of transport volumes on other routes as
a result of a more efficient level of service on
the GermanyPoland-route (Corridor II). Unit
costs on the GermanyPoland-route between
Moscowthe Polish border A at the EU-level B at
the Russian level
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FRISBEE case EUVELI Transport connections
between the EU and Russia. Current status and
outlook for the future
index
Unit cost index of transport routes for three
different product groups between Central
GermanyMoscow. Unit cost of the Finnish route
(existing situation) is 100 for all product
groups. Unit costs on the GermanyPoland-route
between Moscowthe Polish border A at the
EU-level B at the Russian level
Transport time index of routes in freight
transport between Central Germany and
Moscow. Transport time for the Finnish route is
100.
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How the Frisbee functions work?

• The unit cost (euros/ton) of a transport chain
  for a possible transport route from Finland to
  Germany. The freight model chooses the optimum
  route and mode choice. The assumptions are
• land transport 100 km both in Finland and
  Germany
• sea transport ca. 1 000 km
• two port operations
• Truck-ferry and Rail-ferry four times a week
• Bulk (tramp traffic) once in two weeks
• CarTruck-ferry once a day.

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FRISBEE Which areas are possible to reach from
a certain zone (here EKES) within xx hours (here
24 h) by one or more modes
The areas reached from EKES within 24 h by train.
(Average train speed 60 km/h in Finland)
The areas reached from EKES within 24 h by all
available modes (truck, train and all sea modes)
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FRISBEE caseReduced Fairway Dues
The fairway due, based on ship size and ice
class, was reduced by 50 in the Finnish
territorial waters in 2000/2001. Frisbee data
bank was tested with the same inputs.
Changes in railway network Increase
Decline

• Some results
• transito freight at the Russian border increased
  by 2.5 4.0 million tons/year
• this is in accordance with the real data
• truck freight increased by 0.5 million tons/year
• transport work increased inside Finland 400-600
  million tonkms

Changes in seaway network Increase
Decline
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FRISBEE case Road fees on TEN-road network

• Higher road fees on TEN-road network, based on
  the White Book of EU
• Four values tested, min. 0.08 max. 0.36
  EUR/vehiclekm

• Some results
• Total transport work of Export/Import in the
  Frisbee area will increase 416 bill. ton km
• Road transports in Finland will decrease 1535
• Rail transports in Finland will increase 1025
• Total transportation costs in the system will
  increase 1.3 3.0 (12 bill. EUR/year)
• Cost components related to level of service
  (reliability, risk of damage, frequency) will
  increase 917