EURU COMPETITION andor COOPERATION 7 DILEMMAS

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EU-RU COMPETITION and/or COOPERATION 7 DILEMMAS

• by
• Pál TAMÁS IS HAS, Budapest

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1. Partial dissolution of a continental Empire

• 1.Historical patterns of continental imperial
  collapses of the early 20. century Ottoman
  Empire, the Habsburgs, inperial Germany. Paths
  of total disolution, disintegration.
• 2. The Soviet collaps is different.
  Semi-disintegration reduction from global power
  to regional power survival of imperial elites
• MUTUAL CONFUSION both of the Western and Russian
  elites.
• Dominant strategies trial and error without any
  valid theories

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2. Political control of the Black-Baltic Sea
division line

• The only physico-geographical vertical division
  line in Europe- the Black-Baltic Sea area. Who
  should control it? From the end of 18-beginning
  of the 19.century until the late 1980ies only
  Russia, but before that time not Crimea, the
  Hansa, Sweden, Poland and only partly
  Moscovia-Russia.
• And adter 1989-91? Why should it be controled
  fully by anybody new cooperative regimes.

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3. EU as a cosmopolitan Empire

• The EU is an cosmopolitanEmpire, but without
  self-reflection.
• The basic difference between national states and
  empires- the boundary regimes stabil/liquid.
• In the empire disappearence of the
  internal/external EU enlargement philosophies

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4.post-trauma syndroms among the Russian elites

• Percepcion of geopolitical nakedness previous
  techniques of security building of a state
  without natural boundaries big rivers, major
  mountains.
• Who should know pay the bill for this new
  feelings of insecurity? The answer depends on
  actual and coming EUUS-RU power asymmetries.
  Psychosocial sensitivities should be handled via
  special agreements, programs of
  complementarities, etc.

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5. RU-regional power, upgrated by US generated
global conflicts

• The special role of the US in geopolitical
  upgrading the of the Russian oil and gas reserves
  with its Middle Eastern politics.
• Iran as a special subject for exchange of
  influence. Russia will sell them to the West-
  this is out of question. But when and for what
  price? Ukraine? The Caucasus? Growing
  independence of political players in the buffer
  zones.

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6. EU-RU different projections of interests

• 1990ies
• EU
  RU
• US-Canada model additional
• 
  legitimation of the
• 
  nem democracy
• 2000ies
• economic interests alternative
  Westinstead
• short-middle term of the US, but not
  the
• 
  Master
  

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7. Ostpolitik in the EU the German and the
Polish/Baltic scenarios

• German strategy additional power resource in the
  20.century Rapallo, Ribbentrop-Molotov, Brandts
  Ostpolitik
• Polish/Baltic historical memory- confrontative
  overreaction with delay
• THE HUNGARIAN DILEMMAS a. the scope of HUs
  autonomy in this questions? b. possibilities of
  long-term equal distance to Moscow and Kijev ? c.
  special relationship with RU in principle
  possible, but sacrifing the Visegrad foreign
  policy co-operation. Is that a good price?