ONZEKERHEID

1
Conclusions

• We are far from understanding the influence of
  spatial, temporal and functional scale
• What are functional scales?
• Why are results counterintuitive?
• Do emergent properties exist?
• Our representation in models and scenarios is a
  caricature a best
• Why is space square?
• Why are case studies watersheds?

2
The way ahead

• Improve existing techniques
• Combine existing techniques
• Develop new integrating concepts

3
Improve and combine Using reduced form models
Multi-scale participatory scenarios
4
The modelling toolbox
5
Combination with toolbox information
Multi-scale participatory scenarios
Local
Theory
6
Integrating Concepts

• Lemniscate (Resilience Alliance)
• Transition curve (IA)

7
Panarchy (Gunderson Holling, 2002)
8
Transition curve (Rotmans)
Indicator
Stabilisation
Acceleration
Take-off
Predevelopment
Time
9
Proposed solutions
Wilbanks Theoretical understanding of
cross-scale dynamics Giampietro Complex
time Easterling Self-organisation and
resilience Rotmans Transition management for
sustainable development
10
Discussion points
Does scale really matter? -- It is but common
sense
It will never be solved -- The scale-problem is
too complicated