NAFTA, CUSTA,

1
NAFTA, CUSTA, Southern AgricultureNorth
American Trade RelationshipsPolicy Challenges
for 2002 Beyond

• Parr Rosson Flynn Adcock
• Center for North American Studies
• Department of Agricultural Economics
• Texas AM University

2
Overview

• NAFTA Trade Important to the Southern Agriculture
• Foreign Direct Investment in Food
• Festering Emerging Issues

3
Top U.S. Agricultural Export Markets,
1996-2000
Percent Change 1996-2000
24.6
30.0
20.2
20.0
10.0
1.0
0.0
-10.0
-14.6
-16.8
-17.1
-20.0
-20.5
-30.0
-30.0
-32.3
-32.4
-40.0
Japan
Egypt
China
EU-15
Korea
Mexico
Taiwan
Canada
Philippines
Hong Kong
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U.S. Bulk, Intermediate and Consumer
Oriented Imports from Canada
Billion Dollars
Bulk
10
Intermediate
Consumer Oriented
8
6
4
2
0
1990
1995
2000
Source USDA/FAS
6
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7
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8
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10
Competitive Non-competitive U.S. Ag.
Imports from NAFTA, 1990 2000
Canada
Mexico
Competitive
84.6
Competitive
Non-competitive
94.6
5.4
Non-competitive
15.4
1990
1990
Total 3.2 Billion
Total 2.6 Billion
Competitive
Competitive
88.2
93.0
Non-competitive
Non-competitive
7.0
11.8
2000
2000
Total 5.1 Billion
Total 8.6 Billion
Source
Foreign Agricultural Trade of The United States
, Calendar Year, USDA/ERS
11
U.S. Food Industry Investment in Canada,
Mexico, the World
Billion Dollars
40.0
36.8
36.1
World
Canada
Mexico
!
35.1
!
!
7.0
!
32.8
!
31.0
5.7
!
28.9
5.3
6.0
30.0
!
5.0
5.0
5.0
24.9
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.4
!
4.3
5.0
4.0
3.6
20.0
4.0
2.9
2.7
2.5
3.0
8.3
10.0
!
2.0
1.1
1.0
0.0
0.0
1990
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Source USDA/ERS and USDOC, Food and Kindred
Products Category.
12
Canada, Mexico, World Food Industry
Investment in the United States
Billion Dollars
35
World
Canada
Mexico
!
10.0
29
30
28
!
27
!
!
25
8.0
7.8
22
7.6
21
!
7.2
!
20
20
!
6.0
5.9
15
4.4
4.0
10
5
1.3
1.1
1.0
2.0
.6
.3
0
0.0
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Source USDOC, Survey of Current Business,
Selected September Issues, Food Kindred
Products.
13
Festering Emerging Issues

• Implementation of NAFTA Transportation Provisions
• Infrastructure
• Improve Cross-Border Efficiency
• Need for East-West Road Thoroughfares in Mexico
• Increase Cold Storage/Refrigeration in Mexico
• Protectionism (imports, jobs, peso, illegal
  immigration)