National Report NOAANCEP

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National Report (NOAA/NCEP)

• RTOFS, CFS, SST, sea ice

Hendrik L. Tolman Chief, Marine Modeling and
Analysis Branch NOAA / NWS / NCEP /
EMC Hendrik.Tolman_at_NOAA.gov
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intro

• The bigger pictures
• Representing NCEP here, not necessarily all of
  NOAA
• GFDL ocean modeling in climate realm.
• AOML push to do ocean OSSEs.
• Mandate within NOAA to build NOAA part of a
  national ocean modeling backbone capability (real
  time and short term forecast focus?)
• A part of a larger national backbone capability
  with main contributions from Navy, and many other
  partners.
• Within NOAA
• NCEP global focus
• NOS National coastal focus (Coastal Ocean
  Modeling Framework).
• IOOS RAs regional focus.

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intro

• Conted
• Second focus for us on ocean-weather link.
• Hurricane forecast problem.
• General weather prediction.
• NCEP focus on short term weather up to annual.
• Seamless model suite approach (see next slide).
• Resources
• Funding remains issue, hurricane helps (HFIP).
• Building capability.
• HYCOM consortium.
• Stand-alone SST and ice products.
• GODAS in CFS ongoing GODAE contribution.
• Ecosystems Modeling Enterprise in NOAA a 20 year
  plan under development.

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intro
Executing the weather-climate strategy
Adapt this vision to ocean modeling.
Add ocean to each time scale.
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intro

• Ocean modeling at NOAA NCEP Eddy-resolving
  real-time short term forecasting Real Time
  Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS).
• HYCOM based (part of HYCOM consortium).
• Jan. 2007 workshop identified four focus areas
  for NCEP
• Eddy resolving modeling (1) and model
  initialization (2).
• RTOFS Atlantic
• RTOFS Global
• Coupled high-resolution modeling of hurricanes
  (3).
• RTOFS - HWRF ( - WAVEWATCH IIITM) coupling.
• Coupled modeling of weather in general (4).
• Coupled CFS for reanalysis and re-forecasting
  (GFS MOM4 from GFDL, GODAS).
• GFS HYCOM ? Low hor. res., high vert. res.

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ROTFS-Atlantic

• 1/12º resolution Real Time Ocean Forecast System
  for North Atlantic Ocean. (RTOFS-Atlantic, HyCOM
  based).
• Deterministic 6 day forecast (including tides, 3h
  forcing).
• Assimilation of most available data with in-house
  assimilation schemes (21D Var, recursive
  filtering).
• Run once per day.
• Presently in bad shape, issues are dealing with
  operations, not with science
• Most difficult computer update in decade results
  in nine-month upgrade moratorium.
• Weather operations practices versus ocean needs.
• Data density and impacts for assimilation
  approaches.
• Re-initializations, interactive QC.

In queue for summer upgrade
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RTOFS-Global

• Global eddy resolving model needed at NCEP for
  various reasons
• Provide OPC with suitable guidance.
• Key element of NOAA and national backbone
  capability.
• NCEP NOS IOOS strategy.
• Address boundary issues with RTOFS - Atlantic.
• Enable local coupled modeling for hurricanes at
  NCEP.
• Focus on North Atlantic and North East Pacific,
  but enable globally as needed (unified model
  approach).
• Enable ecosystems modeling in general.
• NOAA mandate dating from 2005. Gap needs to be
  filled,
• Resources
• Compute, storage, visualization and analysis,
• Human.

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RTOFS-Global

• Conted
• Leverage HYCOM consortium work to accelerate
  filling gap.
• Adopt Navy 12 global HYCOM model as starting
  point.
• 2009 computing resources sufficient to run model,
  not sufficient to fully support initialization.
• Run model with NCEP forcing and Navy
  initialization, daily 6 day forecast.
• Operational data feed being established.
• Visualization and validation is an issue.
• 2012 computing resources to fully support system.
• NCEP self contained initialization.
• Envision close collaboration with Navy in
  development of assimilation / initialization.
• 2014 decision needs to be made to go to higher
  global resolution or regional US resolution.

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HWRF-HYCOM

• Coupled HWRF-HYCOM system
• Ocean state is important in hurricane track and
  intensity forecasting
• SST (26C cut-off).
• Depth of mixed layer, temperature gradient below.
• Operational system uses ad-hoc POM mode.
• HWRF-HYCOM system designed to fit into
  operational RTOFS-Atlantic model.
• Full 3D ocean model.
• Realistic initialization from operational
  RTOFS-Atlantic.
• Goals and time lines
• Parallel testing 2009 Atlantic Hurricane season.
• Working on adding wave coupling (WAVEWATCH III),
  to be tested in parallel operations 2010 or 2011.

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Coupled HWRF- HYCOM system
RTOFS-Atlantic (HYCOMBasin) O(417 km)
IC
BC
GFS O(25 km)
Data Assimilation (SST, SSH, TS) using 2D/3DVAR
meld
Feature Model Wind
SST
ATMOS. HWRF O(9 27 km)
OCEAN HYCOMRegional O(814 km)
Wind-stress Heat Fluxes Precipitation
Atm. Pressure
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(No Transcript)
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Example of coupled simulations conducted for 2008
Simulation for Katrina
Compared with Animation of hourly GOES SST 3-day
moving average (http//svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a00
0000/a003200/a003222/index.html)
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HWRF-HYCOM
Real time testing for 2008 hurricane season
(Ike). Realistic oceanic simulation and response
to a storm!
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HWRF-HYCOM

• Focus areas for model development
• First and foremost this is a hurricane forecast
  problem
• Hurricane track and intensity
• Sustained progress can only be made with solid
  science.
• Evaluate ocean model skill to accurately
  represent processes of interest.
• Evaluate hurricane forecast system to provide
  accurate air-sea fluxes.
• Evaluate the ability of observations and data
  assimilation to accurately represent initial
  conditions in regions and for state variables of
  interest.

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HWRF-HYCOM
Track errors
Black HYCOM Red Ops (POM).
Mean Difference is at the same order of
magnitude Variations are consistently smaller
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HWRF-HYCOM
Intensity errors
Mean Difference is at the same order of
magnitude Variations are consistently smaller
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HWRF-HYCOM
A
Size 34-kt
SST cooling varies locally, what will be a good
metric for cooling local area footprint
6-hour after
B
6-hour before
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HWRF-HYCOM
The Size of the footprint matters!
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HWRF-HYCOM
Examples of fluxes and averaging radii for
metrics
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HWRF-HYCOM
Pre-storm survey (Gustav)
Model warmer SST and deeper MLD, Z26 and Z20 ?
IC
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Current Operational GODAS

• Operational in 2003.
• Based on MOMv3 (1o x 1o, 1/3o in the tropics, 40
  lvls) and a 3DVAR assimilation scheme.
• The assimilation data are temperature profiles
  (XBT, Argo, TAO, TRITON, PIRATA), synthetic
  salinity profiles derived from a climatological
  T-S relation and Jason-1 altimetry (March 2007).
  The data window extends from 2-weeks before to
  2-weeks after the analysis date.
• Atmospheric forcing from the NCEP Reanalysis-2,
  surface relaxation to Reynolds weekly OIv2 SST,
  Levitas climatological SSS.
• Ocean reanalysis (1980-present) providing initial
  conditions for retrospective CFS forecasts used
  for calibration.
• Two versions associated with the CFS 14-day lag,
  1-day lag.
• A third stand-alone version with a 14-day lag.

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Current Operational SI Prediction at NCEP
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Next Generation GODAS in the CFSRR

• To become operational in 2010.
• Based on MOMv4 (1/2o x 1/2o, 1/4o in the tropics,
  40 lvls) and an updated 3DVAR assimilation
  scheme.
• Assimilation data are temperature profiles (XBT,
  Argo, TAO, TRITON, PIRATA), synthetic salinity
  profiles derived from a seasonal T-S relation,
  and TOPEX/Jason-1/Jason-2 Altimetry. The data
  window is asymmetrical extending from 10-days
  before the analysis date.
• Surface temperature relaxation to (or
  assimilation of) Reynolds new daily, 1/4o OIv2
  SST, surface salinity relaxation Levitas
  climatological SSS.
• The analysis system is coupled to the CFS in the
  sense that the first guess for the assimilation
  is provided by the CFS. After each analysis cycle
  the ocean model is stepped forward as a fully
  coupled component of the CFS.
• The current stand-alone operational GODAS will be
  upgraded in 2009 to the higher resolution MOMv4
  and be available for comparison with the coupled
  version.

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CFSRR at NCEP
Climate Forecast System
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GODAS access CPC site

• Pentad and Monthly data products
• 1979-present
• Access to current and archived Monthly Ocean
  Briefings

http//www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/
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GODAS access - NOMADS

• Pentad and Monthly data
• Interactive plotting
• ftp, http full data file download
• ftp2u partial data download
• DODS

http//cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/ncep_data/
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HYCOM - GFS

• Looking into coupling HYCOM to GFS for weather
  climate strategy
• Lower horizontal resolution, but high vertical
  resolution to be able to describe interaction
  physics.
• ESMF NEMS based, focus on coupling.
• Initialization initially by CFS / GODAS.
• Tentatively upscaling of hi-res global.
• Utilizing ensembles to design assimilation
  systems.
• Lowest priority for us given limited resources.

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SST

• Daily Real-time global SST (RTG_SST_HR) analysis
  
• (1/12º latitude, longitude resolution) is
  generated every 24h (2230 UTC) using latest 24 h
  of real-time data.
• Focus intended on coastal and inland waters.
• Daily Real-time global SST (RTG_SST) analysis
  
• (1/2º latitude, longitude resolution) is
  generated every 24h (2230 UTC) using latest 24 h
  of real-time data.
• Validation statistics available on WEB page.
• Recent issues and changes
• Various instrument transitions.
• Ice edge issues have been removed.
• Coastal issues related to physical retrievals
  being addressed.

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SST
SST
New polar views available on web site.
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sea ice
Northern and Southern Hemisphere daily ice
concentration products based on SSMI data,
including SSMI based weather filtering of data.
AMSR
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sea ice

• Sea Ice For CFSRR
• Daily, global 0.5º latitude-longitude
• 26 October 1978 to present
• Combines data from
• Canadian Ice Service (Laurentian Lakes).
• GLERL (Great Lakes).
• National Snow and Ice Data Center / GSFC (most of
  globe) through 1996/12/31.
• NCEP operational analysis from 1997/01/01
  (global)
• To produce a continuous, consistent, high quality
  series of sea ice concentrations matching to the
  present day's operational analysis system.
• Produced 2007, refined 2008, 2009.

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sea ice

• Sea Ice in RTOFS / HYCOM
• Work starts on low-resolution global model
  (ESMF).
• Partially motivated by sea ice forecast issues in
  CFS.
• Coupled and stand-alone versions
• Stand alone useful considering resource ratio
  HYCOM ice.
• Stand-alone to be used for assessing flux errors
  in GFS.
• Dynamic-thermodynamic ice with multiple thickness
  classes.
• Using operational concentration analyses.

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SST and sea ice

• SST and sea ice are stand alone products
• Will remain so and will be maintained and
  developed for the foreseeable future
• Input for weather models.
• Independent validation products.
• Additional products will become available from
  modeling
• SST directly from HyCOM.
• Ice model embedded in global HyCOM.
• Data products can benefit from, or be merged with
  models
• SST to follow model trends rather than revert to
  climatology for areas with prolonged absence of
  observation data.