US CLIVAR Summit Breckenridge, CO PPAI

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PPAI Concluding Report

• Proposed focus DROUGHT

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PPAI Concluding Report

• Proposed focus DROUGHT
• Diagnosis prediction of drought across space
  time scales
• Scientific challenge DECADAL VARIABILITY
• Examples of societally relevant questions
• What are the leading causes of the current
  drought?
• What is the likelihood for a break in the drought
  this year?
• Can we expect more/worse drought over the next 10
  years?
• How much are temperature trends exacerbating the
  drought?
• What happens to frequency/severity of drought in
  a changing climate?

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PPAI WG Suggestion
Decadal Climate Variability WG Focus on
tropics esp. Pacific - Role of ENSO in
drought - Role of ENSO in US prediction skill -
Role of ENSO in hurricane development Tasks
would include studies of predictability
experimental predictions for tropical Pacific
variabilitycharacteristics Leverage ongoing
decadal predictability experimentsat GFDL
NCAR experimental decadal predictions
fromENSEMBLES Societally relevant question
(e.g.) Can we expect more/stronger El Nino
events inthe next 10 years?
4
PPAI Goals

• Further fundamental understanding of climate
  predictability at sub-seasonal to centennial time
  scales
• Improve provision of climate forecast
  information, particularly with respect to drought
  and other extreme events
• Foster research and development of prediction
  systems of climate impacts on ecosystems and
  hydrology
• Enable use of CLIVAR science for improved
  decision support

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Goal 1 Understanding Predictability

• Activities
• Characterize current predictability and
  prioritize associated research challenges for
  seasonal-to-interannual prediction (Goddard)
• Paper(s) on drought prediction across timescales
  and/or intersection between decadal variability
  and climate change (Delworth, Hall ??)
• Propose WG on Decadal Variability of Tropics
  (Mehta PPAI)
• Activities 3-5 years beyond
• Advise on Quasi-Regular process for the
  assessment of prediction skill (Mason)

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Goal 2 Improved provision of climate forecast
information

• Activities 1-3 years
• Special session at Fall AGU 2006 on Improving
  Credibility of Climate Predictions
• Propose CMEP activity focused on drought (Meehl)
• Activities 3-5 years beyond
• Coordinate with COPES Modeling Panel and the
  COPES-TFSP on the development of a unified days
  to decades prediction strategy to be implemented
  by 2015 (Kirtman)

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Goal 3 Ecosystems and Hydrology

• Activities 1-3 years
• Make connections with networks of ecosystems
  researchers, such as National Phenology Network
  and Vegetation Dynamics Groups (Redmond Koster)
• Coordinate with GEWEX on hydrology/water
  resources issues, in particular scoping potential
  process study on land-atmosphere interaction
  relevant to drought maintenance (Koster)
• Add ecosystems or hydrology person to panel

8
Goal 4 CLIVAR science decision support

• Activities 1-3 years
• Implement US CLIVAR Applications Interface
  Postdoctoral Program (Goddard Redmond)
• Become more proactive with intermediaries, e.g.
  contacts at meetings, teleconference invitations
  (PPAI)
• Activities 3-5 years beyond
• Promote and help implement USC-AI post-doc
  program (PPAI)
• Encourage multi-agency support for development of
  web-based information delivery and decision
  support tools
• Coordinate and prioritize efforts to downscale
  climate information and forecasts, emphasizing
  responsible provision and use of high-resolution
  information

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• Research Activity proposed by PPAI
• Drought Understanding, predicting and
  projecting changes
• MethodologyCMEP analyses of multi-model datasets
  (unforced control runs, 20th century simulations,
  21st century scenario projections)
• Drought session in decadal workshop, April, 2007
• Drought Workshop CMEP session spring 2008
• Considerations Drought processes and timescales
  (seasonal/interannual for individual droughts,
  decadal/centennial for statistics/changes in
  drought past/present/future)
• Drought impacts (water resources, ecosystems,
  land surface)

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Ties to other US CLIVAR Panels and Working
Groups 1. Drought Working Group 2. POS
decadal variability and predictability of
droughts (role of ocean in drought, natural
variability vs. anthropogenic climate change
aspects of drought) 3. PSMIP drought processes
represented in models, effect of systematic
errors, model improvements to better represent
drought processes