Enhanced Wording within the ZFP and CWF Products as Generated by the GFE Text Formatter Employing Tr

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Enhanced Wording withinthe ZFP and CWF
Productsas Generated bythe GFE Text Formatter
(Employing Tropical Cyclone Wind Probabilities)

• Pablo Santos and Guy Rader
• WFO Miami, FL
• David Sharp and Matthew Volkmer
• WFO Melbourne, FL

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EXAMPLE
TC Wind Speed Probabilities on AWIPS-D2D (Incremen
tal-form)
Probability of Tropical Storm Conditions
Hurricane Charley 2004
34 knot / 36 hour
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EXAMPLE
TC Wind Speed Probabilities on AWIPS-D2D (Incremen
tal-form)
Probability of Tropical Storm Conditions
Hurricane Charley 2004
34 knot / 48 hour
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EXAMPLE
TC Wind Speed Probabilities on AWIPS-D2D (Incremen
tal-form)
Probability of Tropical Storm Conditions
Hurricane Charley 2004
34 knot / 60 hour
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EXAMPLE
TC Wind Speed Probabilities on AWIPS-D2D (Incremen
tal-form)
Probability of Hurricane Conditions
Hurricane Charley 2004
64 knot / 36 hour
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EXAMPLE
TC Wind Speed Probabilities on AWIPS-D2D (Incremen
tal-form)
Probability of Hurricane Conditions
Hurricane Charley 2004
64 knot / 48 hour
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EXAMPLE
TC Wind Speed Probabilities on AWIPS-D2D (Incremen
tal-form)

• For more information about tropical
• cyclone wind probabilities, please see
• Knaff and DeMaria (2005)
• Gross et al. (2004)

Probability of Hurricane Conditions
Hurricane Charley 2004
64 knot / 60 hour
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Proposed WFO Use

• During potential high impact weather events such
  as tropical cyclones, users want our best
  forecast, but also accompanied with an
  expression of uncertainty (or confidence) of that
  forecast.
• Therefore, we are exploring the use of TC Wind
  Probabilities to improve official text/tabular
  products
• To include situational expressions of uncertainty
  within the Zone Forecast Product (ZFP) and the
  Coastal Waters Forecast (CWF).
• In the future, with success, then explore
  situational inclusion of tropical cyclone wind
  probability elements within the Point Forecast
  Matrices (PFM).

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Improve ZFP CWF Products

• The intent is to establish a set of rules for
  triggering enhanced wording which responsibly
  convey wind speed uncertainties within text
  forecasts according to the temporal period.
• This is accomplished through GFE automated
  formatters by making appropriate use of the
  following grids sets
• Hazard Grids
• Wind Grids
• Tropical Cyclone Wind 34 kt Probability Grids
• Tropical Cyclone Wind 64 kt Probability Grids
• Initial development and testing was done off-line
  during the 2005 season an aggressive examination
  is underway for the 2006 season.

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Grid Set Descriptions

• Hazard Grids include Hurricane/Tropical Storm
  Warning/Watch grids as issued
• For coastal zones by TPC
• For inland zones by WFO
• For marine zones by WFO
• Wind Grids represent the post-processed wind
  grids as generated by the TCM Wind tool, with WFO
  value added contributions for local effects
  (e.g., higher altitude terrain, gap winds, over
  inland lakes, etc.).
• The Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability Grids (as
  obtained through TPC) are the incremental-based
  (not cumulative) probabilities for 34 knot and 64
  knot winds.
• The incremental probabilities for 50 knot winds
  are not needed for this application.

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Series of Situation Rules According to the
Forecast Period

• Forecast Periods
• 00-48 hours ( Warning/Watch period)
• 00-12 hours
• 13-24 hours
• 25-48 hours
• 49-120 hours (extended period)
• Deterministic vs. Probabilistic Information
• Deterministic wind speeds have the most value
  during the 00-24 hour period, and have decreasing
  value with increasing time.
• Probabilistic wind speeds have increasing value
  with increasing time.

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Text Formatters Logic Hierarchy for Sensitivity
Message Sensitivity
Note Forecast Error implies appreciation for the
inherent uncertainties regarding the track,
intensity, and size of the tropical cyclone.
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Text Formatters Baseline Phraseology
Baseline Phraseology

• Note
• The word IMMINENT may be used only within the
  00-12 hour period and when
• conditions are simultaneously met within the
  hazard, wind, and probability grids.
• The word EXPECTED may be used in situations
  mainly during the Warning period,
• but may be selectively used in the Watch
  period (e.g., Day 1 2).
• The word POSSIBLE may be used during the
  extended period (e.g., Day 3 - 5),
• but may also be used in specific circumstances
  within Watch/Warning period.
• Also, certain situations may require compound
  phrases (e.g., Tropical Storm
• Warning with a Hurricane Watch).

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Text Formatters Probability Thresholds (Initial)

Probability Thresholds
Note Initial thresholds were empirically-determin
ed future refinements are likely.
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Text Formatters Probability Thresholds (Initial)

Probability Thresholds
Note Initial thresholds were empirically-determin
ed future refinements are likely.
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For Example - An incremental-form 64-knot
tropical cyclone wind probability depiction
associated with Hurricane Wilma (2005) is used
here to trigger the phrase HURRICANE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE in a later period of the ZFP and CWF.
Valid time is 96 hours on 24 October 2005, 0000
UTC (from a start time on 20 October 2005, 0000
UTC). Note that values shown only range from 0
to 5.
96 hour forecast
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For Example ZFP Extended
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-MAINLAND
MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OFNAPLESIMMOKALEE
FLAMINGO 1130 PM
EDT WED OCT 19 2005 .TONIGHT

.THURSDAY

.THURSDAY
NIGHT
.FRIDAY


.FRIDAY NIGHTBREEZY.

.SATURDAYWINDY. .SATURDAY NIGHTTROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. .SUNDAYHURRICANE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. .SUNDAY NIGHTTROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. .MONDAYBREEZY. Note From the
Hurricane Wilma (2005) test case, the
experimental formatter output for the ZFP
indicated POSSIBLE tropical cyclone conditions in
the extended periods of the forecast. For
brevity, only the descriptive wind elements are
shown here.
Formatter Output
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ZFP Examples
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Charley Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20040813_0900 (0-12 Hours First Period)
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Charley Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20040813_0900 (0-12 Hours First Period)
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Charley Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20040813_0900 (13-24 Hours Second Period)
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Charley Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20040813_0900 (13-24 Hours Second Period)
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Charley Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20040813_1500 (0-12 Hours First Period)
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Charley Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20040813_1500 (0-12 Hours First Period)
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Frances Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20040902_1500 (25-36 Hours Third Period)
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Frances Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20040902_1500 (37-48 Hours Fourth Period
and Extended)
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Frances Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20040902_1500 (37-48 Hours Fourth Period
and Extended)
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Frances Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20040902_1500 (37-48 Hours Fourth Period
and Extended)
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Frances Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20040902_1500 (37-48 Hours Fourth Period
and Extended)
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Katrina Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20050824_2100 (Second Fifth Periods)
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Katrina Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20050824_2100 (Second Fifth Periods)
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Katrina Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20050824_2100 (Second Fifth Periods)
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Katrina Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20050824_2100 (Second Fifth Periods)
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Katrina Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20050824_2100 (Second Fifth Periods)
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Wilma Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20051023_2100 (First through Third Periods)
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Wilma Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20051023_2100 (First through Third Periods)
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Wilma Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20051023_2100 (First through Third Periods)
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Wilma Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20051023_2100 (First through Third Periods)
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Wilma Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20051023_2100 (First through Third Periods)
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Wilma Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20051023_2100 (First through Third Periods)
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CWF Examples
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Charley Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20040813_0900 (0-12 Hours First Period)
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Charley Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20040813_0900 (0-12 Hours First Period)
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Charley Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20040813_0900 (13-24 Hours Second Period)
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Charley Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20040813_0900 (13-24 Hours Second Period)
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Frances Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20040902_1500 (25-36 Hours Third Period)
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Frances Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20040902_1500 (37-48 Hours Fourth Period
and Extended)
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Frances Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20040902_1500 (37-48 Hours Fourth Period
and Extended)
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Frances Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20040902_1500 (37-48 Hours Fourth Period
and Extended)
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Frances Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20040902_1500 (37-48 Hours Fourth Period
and Extended)
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Frances Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20040902_1500 (37-48 Hours Fourth Period
and Extended)
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Frances Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20040902_1500 (37-48 Hours Fourth Period
and Extended)
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Frances Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20040902_1500 (37-48 Hours Fourth Period
and Extended)
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Katrina Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20050824_2100 (Second Fifth Periods)
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Katrina Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20050824_2100 (Second Fifth Periods)
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Katrina Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20050824_2100 (Second Fifth Periods)
WHY??? Because the TCV Hazards grid only extended
out 36 hours from advisory time. So for purposes
of the algorithm there was no TRW/HUA for Friday.
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Katrina Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20050824_2100 (Second Fifth Periods)
NOTE??? Here TRW/HUA would have made no
difference. EXPECTED reserved for the first four
periods only.
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Wilma Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20051023_2100 (First through Third Periods)
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Wilma Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20051023_2100 (First through Third Periods)
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Wilma Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20051023_2100 (First through Third Periods)
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Wilma Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20051023_2100 (First through Third Periods)
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Wilma Example of How Algorithm works Advisory
Time 20051023_2100 (First through Third Periods)
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Important Considerations When Editing Hazard Grids
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Point About Headlines
In CWF for MIA/FLL Adjacent Marine Zone
HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT TROPICAL STORM
WARNING

• Situation
• Caveat TPCs TCV is only for coastal counties.
  Marine Zones are full responsibility of WFO.
• Rita 20050920_0900 Advisory.
• HU.W South of Golden Beach.
• TR.W/HU.A North of Golden Beach
• Adjacent Map Result of drawing Inland and Marine
  Hazards with Make_Hazard using Combination of Map
  Zone Selection and hand free Edit Areas.
• Requires Hand post editing of headlines to avoid
  confusion. Although for this particular case
  formatter pws phrase logic would work, the more
  complex and creative the forecaster gets, the
  better the chance the pws phrase logic will break
  down.

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Point About Headlines
In CWF for MIA/FLL Adjacent Marine Zone
HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT

• Situation
• Caveat TPCs TCV is only for coastal counties.
  Marine Zones are full responsibility of WFO.
• Rita 20050920_0900 Advisory.
• HU.W South of Golden Beach.
• TR.W/HU.A North of Golden Beach
• Adjacent Map Result of drawing Inland and Marine
  Hazards with Make_Hazard using Map Zone Selection
  ONLY.
• No Post Editing of headlines required.
• Perhaps best approach for simplicity. Formatter
  will most likely never give you trouble for pws
  phrase.

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Details of Algorithm Program into the Formatters
(Optional)
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0-12 Hours Decision Tree (Includes Wind Phrase
Also) HU Hurricane Conditions, TR TS
Conditions, W means MaxW in Forecast Period/Zone
If PWS34 PWS64 Present Else Reg Phrasing
HU/I and TR/I mean HU or HI and TR or TI,
respectively
If pws34 80
If W 34
TR Imminent with HU Also Possible
If (HU/I.A TR/I.W) or (HU.A TR.A TR.W)
TR Expected with HU Also Possible
Else
Else If pws34 50 W 25
TR Expected with HU Also Possible
TR Possible with HU Also Possible
Else If pws64 15
Else If pws34 50 or W 25
TR Possible
Else If HU/I.W or HU/I.A or (HU/I.W TI.W)
or (HU/I.A TI.A) or (HI.W HU/TR.A)
or (HU.A HU.W TR.W) or (HU.W TR.W)
or (HU.A TR.A)
Regular Phrasing What if TR expected second
forecast period and prob thresholds are not met
first period or viceversa?
Else
If W 64
HU Expected
If pws64 30
HR Imminent
Else
Else If pws64 15 W 50
HU Expected
TR Expected with HU Also Possible
TR Imminent with HU Also Possible
If pws34 80
Else
Else If W 34
Else If pws34 50 W 25
TR Expected with HU Also Possible
Else If pws64 15
TR Possible with HU Also Possible
Else If pws34 50 or W 25
HU Possible
Regular Phrasing What if HU expected second
forecast period and prob thresholds are not met
first period or viceversa?
Else
Else If TR/I.W or TR/I.A or (TI.W TR.A)
If W 34
TR Expected
If pws34 80
TR Imminent
Else
Else If pws34 50 W 25
TR Expected
Else If pws64 15
TR Possible with HU Also Possible
Else If pws34 50 or W 25
TR Possible
Regular Phrasing What if TR expected second
forecast period and prob thresholds are not met
first period or viceversa?
Else
Regular Phrasing(Breezy, Windy, etc).
Technically, we do not need to worry about the no
watch/warning with winds above 34 knots in this
period because to begin with, we are not allowed
to depict them unless TCM driven and in this time
range we WILL be dealing with some sort of
watch/warning. This is also the situation where
if the wind radii impact offshore waters, then
WFO MUST make sure they place those zones in a
watch or warning (not wait for TPC) for this
algorithm to work properly. However, just in
case, see next slide.
ELSE
See Next Slide
68
0-12 Hours Decision Tree (HU/HI or TR/TI grids
not present) HU Hurricane Conditions, TR TS
Conditions, W means MaxW in Forecast Period/Zone
ELSE FROM PREVIOUS SLIDE
HU/I and TR/I mean HU or HI and TR or TI,
respectively
If W 64
HU Possible
Else If W 34
TR Possible
Else If pws64 15
HU Possible
Else If pws34 50
TR Possible
Else
Regular Phrasing
NOTE Preliminary thresholds for warning period
0-24 hourspws6415, 30 to trigger use of
imminent pws3450, 80 to trigger use of
imminent
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13-24 Hours Decision Tree (Includes Wind Phrase
Also) HU Hurricane Conditions, TR TS
Conditions, W means MaxW in Forecast Period/Zone
If PWS34 PWS64 Present Else Reg Phrasing
HU/I and TR/I mean HU or HI and TR or TI,
respectively
If W 34 or (pws34 45 W 25)
TR Expected with HU Also Possible
If (HU/I.A TR/I.W) or (HU.A TR.A TR.W)
TR Possible with HU Also Possible
Else If pws64 12
TR Possible
Else If pws34 45 or W 25
Regular Phrasing What if TR expected third
forecast period and prob thresholds are not met
second period or viceversa?
Else If HU/I.W or HU/I.A or (HU/I.W TI.W)
or (HU/I.A TI.A) or (HI.W HU/TR.A)
or (HU.A HU.W TR.W) or (HU.W TR.W)
or (HU.A TR.A)
Else
If W 64 or (pws64 12 W 50)
HU Expected
TR Expected with HU Also Possible
Else If W 34 or (pws34 45 W 25)
TR Possible with HU Also Possible
Else If pws64 12
Else If pws34 45 or W 25
HU Possible
Regular Phrasing What if HU expected third
forecast period and prob thresholds are not met
second period or viceversa?
Else
Else If TR/I.W or TR/I.A or (TI.W TR.A)
TR Expected
If W 34 or (pws34 45 W 25)
Else If pws64 12
TR Possible with HU Also Possible
TR Possible
Else If pws34 45 or W 25
Regular Phrasing What if TR expected third
forecast period and prob thresholds are not met
second period or viceversa?
Else
Regular Phrasing(Breezy, Windy, etc).
Technically, we do not need to worry about the no
watch/warning with winds above 34 knots in this
period because to begin with, we are not allowed
to depict them unless TCM driven and in this time
range we WILL be dealing with some sort of
watch/warning. This is also the situation where
if the wind radii impact offshore waters, then
WFO MUST make sure they place those zones in a
watch or warning (not wait for TPC) for this
algorithm to work properly. However, just in
case, see next slide.
ELSE
See Next Slide
70
13-24 Hours Decision Tree (HU/HI or TR/TI grids
not present) HU Hurricane Conditions, TR TS
Conditions, W means MaxW in Forecast Period/Zone
ELSE FROM PREVIOUS SLIDE
HU/I and TR/I mean HU or HI and TR or TI,
respectively
If W 64
HU Possible
Else If W 34
TR Possible
Else If pws64 12
HU Possible
Else If pws34 45
TR Possible
Else
Regular Phrasing
NOTE Preliminary thresholds for warning period
0-24 hourspws6412, pws3445
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25-48 Hours Decision Tree (Includes Wind Phrase
Also) HU Hurricane Conditions, TR TS
Conditions, W means MaxW in Forecast Period/Zone
If PWS34 PWS64 Present Else Reg Phrasing
HU/I and TR/I mean HU or HI and TR or TI,
respectively
If W 34 or (pws34 40 W 25)
TR Expected with HU Also Possible
If (HU/I.A TR/I.W) or (HU.A TR.A TR.W)
TR Possible with HU Also Possible
Else If pws64 10
Else If pws34 40 or W 25
TR Possible
Regular Phrasing What if TR expected 4th
forecast period and prob thresholds are not met
3th period or viceversa?
Else
Else If HU/I.W or (HU/I.W TI.W) or (HI.W
HU/TR.A) or (HU.A HU.W TR.W) Or (HU.W
TR.W) or
If W 64 or (pws64 10 W 50)
HU Expected
Else If W 34 or (pws34 40 W 25)
TR Expected with HU Also Possible
TR Possible with HU Also Possible
Else If pws64 10
Else If pws34 40 or W 25
HU Possible
Regular Phrasing What if HU expected 4th
forecast period and prob thresholds are not met
3th period or viceversa?
Else
If W 34 or (pws34 40 W 25)
Else If TR/I.W or (TI.W TR.A)
TR Expected
Else If pws64 10
TR Possible with HU Also Possible
Else If pws34 40 or W 25
TR Possible
Regular Phrasing What if TR expected 4th
forecast period and prob thresholds are not met
3th period or viceversa?
Else
See Next Slide
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25-48 Hours Decision Tree (Includes Wind Phrase
Also) HU Hurricane Conditions, TR TS
Conditions, W means MaxW in Forecast Period/Zone
From Previous Slide
HU/I and TR/I mean HU or HI and TR or TI,
respectively
Else If HU/I.A or (HU/I.A TI.A) or (HU.A
TR.A)
If W 50 or pws64 10
HU Possible
TR Possible with HU Also Possible
Else If W 25 or pws34 40
Regular Phrasing What if HU is forecast in the
4th period instead of the 3rd forecast period and
prob thresholds are not met 3rd period or
viceversa?
Else
If pws64 10
TR Possible with HU Also Possible
Else If TR/I.A
If W 34
TR Possible
Else
Else If pws64 10
TR Possible with HU Also Possible
TR Possible
Else If pws34 40 or W 25
Regular Phrasing What if TR is forecast in the
4th period instead of the 3rd forecast period and
prob thresholds are not met 3rd period or
viceversa?
Else
Use same algorithm as 49-120 (except for
inclusion of wind phrase) to determine HU or TR
Possible.
ELSE
NOTE Preliminary thresholds for watch period
25-48 hourspws6410 pws3440
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49-120 Hours Decision Tree (No Wind Phrase) HU
Hurricane Conditions, TR TS Conditions, W means
MaxW in Forecast Period/Zone
If pws64 XX HU Possible
If PWS34 PWS64 Present
Else If W 64 HU Possible
Else If pws34 XX TR Possible
Else If W 34) TR Possible
Else Regular Phrasing
Else Regular Phrasing
NOTE XX thresholds are a function of time
preliminary thresholds. 49-72
hourspws648 pws3430 73-96
hourspws645 pws3420 97-120
hours...pws643 pws3413