Advancing participatory scenario development linking storylines and models with cognitive maps

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Advancing participatory scenario
developmentlinking storylines and models with
cognitive maps
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Storyline and Stimulation approach
Narrative storylines
Model runs
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Why is a gap a problem?

• Input policy makers and other stakeholders mainly
  in storylines
• Expert input mainly in models
• Link storylines and models has a gap
• Model results do not match storylines
• -gt lowers trust of stakeholders in models
• -gt lowers scientific status of results
• -gt losing possibility of 'negotiated science'

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Goals of new framework

• Creating a better link between participatory
  outcomes and models
• Linking models and storylines
• Linking stakeholders and modellers (learning
  cycle between SHs and modellers)
• Better structured participatory outcomes
• Linking different groups of stakeholders
  (learning cycle within SHs)

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Fuzzy Cognitive Maps Goals

• Gain insight in the system
• Gain insight in the perspectives of the
  stakeholders
• Stimulate mutual understanding
• Stimulate communication between stakeholders and
  modellers

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Discussion

• FCM give a middle picture between qualitative
  storylines and quantitative models
• Some drawbacks of using FCM, both technical and
  process based
• Time ill-defined
• Creativity versus structure
• Consensus versus diversity
• The iteration between models and storylines needs
  enough attention from both sides

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Expertise in participatory processes in
watermanagement
Anna Wesselink Sustainability Research
Institute, University of Leeds Huib de
Vriend Faculty of Civil Engineering
Geosciences, Delft University of
Technology Maarten Krol Department Water
Engineering and Management, University of Twente
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What is expertise ? knowledge ?

• expertise includes the skills needed to use
  knowledge in a specific context
• substantive expertise
• ability to translate to experts in different
  domains
• ability to translate to non-experts
• ability to discriminate between knowledge claims
  judged from the socio-political context
• political expertise deals with power relations
• procedural expertise deals with project planning
  and facilitation of meetings

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Context
Experts roles
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The dilemmas of expertise

• Expertise has never before been so
  indispensable, while being simultaneously so
  hotly contested. (Nowotny 2003)
• The question of whose expertise is to be
  recognised, translated and incorporated into
  action is a political one.

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Roles of experts
scientist
policy worker
reflective practitioner
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LA River
Waterand Culture Freude am Fluss Space for
the River-Space for People Nijmegen October
22-24, 2008 Irene J. Klaver Director
Philosophy of Water Project, University of North
Texas
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River Cultures-Ecological Futures

• "River Cultures-Ecological Futures" is a
  collaborative initiative of UNESCO's Division of
  Ecological and Earth Sciences and Man and
  Biosphere Program in Paris with the University of
  North Texas Philosophy of Water Project.
• In the initiative river basins are priority areas
  for focused interdisciplinary research and
  policy.
• Goal is to develop a cultural component in
  (transnational) ecosystem based water management
  based on (new or existing) cultural practices and
  to integrate this component in water policy
  practices, in the educational curricula of
  engineering and water management institutions,
  and in communities.

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Man and Biosphere Program

• Biosphere reserves reconciling the conservation
  of biodiversity with economic development
• Biosphere reserves are sites recognized under
  UNESCO's Man and the Biosphere Program which
  innovate and demonstrate approaches to
  conservation and sustainable development.
• Living laboratories for people/culture and nature

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RiverSpheres

• Facilitating involvement, engagement, motivation,
  imagination, sense of belonging
• Integrating environmental flows and cultural
  flows
• Rivers influence life styles-life styles
  influence rivers
• Vision an inspiring image of a desired future
• Re-imagine the river/ Environmental Media

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• Diversity of Culture is like Complexity of water
  issues embedded in different levels (global,
  regional, country, small scale watershed).
• Water issues are always associated with resource
  dynamics of watershed (land use changes, soil
  erosion, land degradation, infrastructure
  development, etc) which are affected by cultural
  beliefs and practices.
• When culture is not taken into consideration in
  sustainable resource management and policy making
  there is a lack of trust and compliance of local
  communities.
• The efforts and initiatives for solving water
  availability crisis should link local interests
  with environmental protection, link upstream with
  downstream, link country development priorities
  with regional concerns, link micro situation to
  macro picture of watershed management and its
  governance.
• Diversity of livelihoods in Tropical Uplands

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18,000! It can come tomorrow. The role of
knowledge and uncertainty in the struggle about
calamity polders in the Netherlands
Dik Roth
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Calamity polders the beginning

• 1990s search for areas for controlled flooding
  during periods of extreme discharges
• 2000-2005 calamity polder debate.
• Concept of residual risk state-provided
  structural measures are not a 100 guarantee
• Early 2000 presentation of the concept of
  calamity polders and a map of searching areas

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Calamity polders reactions

• Gelderland Province surprise, protests (farmers
  organizations, administrators, the private
  sector)
• Counter-research commisioned by Gelderland (among
  others with Germany)
• 2001 appointment of Luteijn Commission
  inquiry into relevance of and need for calamity
  polders (nut en noodzaak)
• Responsible Departments Transport and Water
  Management, and Home Affairs

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Calamity polders some arguments

• Contestation of assumptions about discharges and
  effects of use of calamity polders
• Questioning their functionality (catching a
  wave)
• Stressing the transnational dimension (the factor
  of current conditions and future policy in
  Germany)
• Costs and benefits (tracing a report on the basis
  of the Government Information Act WOB)
• Questioning the structural / non-structural
  distinction

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Communication with stakeholders

• No substantial role for inhabitants and other
  actors (e.g. in sounding board meetings)
• Avoidance of the technical debates (especially
  the uncertainties)
• Repetition of the arguments that legitimize the
  plans (airbag etc.)
• Marginalization of critical voices (and reports)
• Labeling local protests as NIMBY

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Calamity polders the end

• August 2002 the new Vice-Minister opts for
  decisiveness (rather than finding societal
  support or parking)
• But increasing professional, societal and
  political criticism
• 2004 resolution Boelhouwer-Van Lith no calamity
  polders funds added to the Room for the River
  budget.
• 2005 demise (or shelving?) of the calamity
  polder plans, except for Beersche Overlaat.

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The New Delta Commission.

• Can we see parallels with the Luteijn commission?
• Create a sense of urgency, make a lot of noise!
• Leave it to the experts!
• Present knowledge as certain and uncontested
  (or marginalize those who dare to doubt your
  knowledge).
• Save the country, avoid further debates!