Predictive Validity

1

• Predictive Validity
• Washington State Juvenile Court Assessment
• University of Lund
• 12 September, 2005

2
Recidivism Timing and Measurement

• Recidivism is a crime resulting in a finding or
  admission of guilt.
• Begins on the date the youth is released into the
  community.
• Measured on date the offense is committed.
• An 18 month follow-up to capture 75-80 of
  re-offending during 5 year period.
• A 12 month adjudication period to capture 99 of
  adjudicated offenses.
• Preliminary recidivism 12 month follow-up 6
  month adjudication 18 months
• Full recidivism 18 month follow-up 12 month
  adjudication 30 months

3
Pre-Screen Criminal History(From Statewide Court
Database)
1. Age at first offense 2. Misdemeanor
referrals 3. Felony referrals 4. Weapon
referrals 5. Against person misdemeanor
referrals 6. Against person felony
referrals 7. Confinement orders to
detention 8. Confinement orders to state
institution 9. Escapes 10. Failure to appear
warrants
4
Youth Placed On Probation, Given Diversion, or
Released From State Institution During 1995
State Institution (N1,367)
Probation N8,827
Diversion N15,548
5
Percentage of Youth Grouped by Criminal History
Score
6
Area Under Receiver Operator Characteristic
0.647


Correlation Coefficient .22
48

Felony Recidivism Rate22.8

42

34


27
18 Month Felony Recidivism Rate

23

18

16

13

9

7










Zero
1 to 2
3 to 4
5 to 5
6 to 6
7 to 8
9 to 10
11 to 15
16 to 20
Over 20










(0.6)
(4.7)
(15.8)
(12.9)
(12.5)
(19.4)
(11.8)
(15.7)
(5.1)
(1.4)

Criminal History Score (Percent of Sample)

7
Pre-Screen Social History
1. Male gender 2. School attendance, grades, and
misconduct 3. Friends, pro-social, anti-social,
and gang 4. Court-ordered/DSHS voluntary
out-of-home/shelter care placements 5. Runaways
or times kicked out of home 6. Family members
have been to jail/prison 7. Current parental rule
enforcement and control 8. Alcohol/drugs disrupt
functioning 9. Victim of physical/sexual
abuse 10. Victim of neglect 11. Mental problems
8
Area Under Receiver Operator Characteristic
0.634

Correlation Coefficient .20



48

38

34

31
18 Month Felony Recidivism Rate

27

21

17

13

10

4










Zero
1 to 2
3 to 3
4 to 5
6 to 7
8 to 9
10 to 11
12 to 12
13 to 15
Over 15










(0.8)
(
9
.6)
(7.6)
(18.3)
(19.9)
(18.4)
(
14.1)
(4.4)
(6.1)
(1.0)

Social History Score (Percent of Sample)

9

14


12
Average Social History Score

10

8

Average Social History Score


6


4

2

0







0
5
10
15
20
25
30

Criminal History Score

10

40
37.9


35


Moderate Social


High Social Risk Score


Risk Score (6 to 9)

27.8

(10 to 18)
30

29.7

25
20.0




20
18 Month Felony Recidivism Rate
22.4
21.4


15
11.2

16.2
Low Social Risk Score



13.2
(0 to 5)
10
10.9




8.9
7.8
5

0




0 to 2
3 to 4
5 to 7
8 to 31

Pre
-
Screen Criminal History Score

11
Area Under Receiver Operator Characteristic



0.6
4

Correlation Coefficient .21

High

(
N 20,339)

42.5



18
-
32.2

Low

28.9

Moderate

28.6

Month Felony Recidivism Rates
20.6

11.2





Low
-
Risk Level
Moderate
-
Risk Level
High
-
Risk Level

12
Pre-Screen Assessment Validity Summary 18 Month
Recidivism Risk Level
Low Moderate High
Total Number of Assessments 5,880 5,817
8,642 20,339 Percent of Sample 28.9
28.6 42.5 100.0 Total
Recidivism 34.0 47.8 61.8
49.7 Felony Recidivism 11.2 20.6 32.2
22.8 Violent Felony Recidivism 2.9 5.9
11.0 7.2
13

• Percentage of Low Risk Youth Who Re-Offended
• Within Six Months of Start of Supervision
• Allowing Six Months For Adjudication

Violent Felony 1
Non-Violent Felony 4
None 84
Misdemeanor 11
14
Risk Prediction of Felony and Violent Felony
Recidivism
50
Felony (23)
42
Violent Felony (7)
40
30
24
19
20
16
11
10
7
5
3
0
Low Risk (28.6)
Moderate Risk
High Felony Risk
High Violent Risk
(27.0)
(24.1)
(20.3)
15
Gender
50
Male
Female

36
40
30
23
18-Month Felony Recidivism Rate
18
20
13
13
6
10
0
Low Risk
Moderate Risk
High Risk
16
Adding 10 points to the risk score for being a
male shifts the male risk line to the right by 10
units. For example, a male score of 5 with a
recidivism rate of 4.3 becomes a score of 15.
As a result, risk scores result in similar
recidivism rates for females and males.
50
45
40
35
30
Males Plus 10 points
Males
18-Month Felony Recidivism
25
20
15
Females
10
5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Risk Score
17
Age At Adjudication
50
Under14
14 to 16
40
Over 16
38

33
26
30
28
18-Month Felony Recidivism Rate
22
20
12
15
12
10
9
0
Low Risk
Moderate Risk
High Risk
18
Sex Offenders
50
No Prior Sex Offense
Prior Sex Offense
40
Felony
32
30
18-Month Felony Recidivism Rate
21
24
20
14
Violent Felony
11
11

6
10
8
4
5
3
3
0
Low Risk
Moderate Risk
High Risk

19
Ethnicity
50
African American
43
Asian American
40
39
Native American
32
European American
31
30
26
30
18-Month Felony Recidivism Rate
21
17
20
19
16

11
10
10
0
Low Risk
Moderate Risk
High Risk
20
10.00
European(1)
Afrcian(2)
8.88
9.00
8.69
Native(3)
Asian(5)
8.10
8.00
7.70
7.65
7.18
7.03
7.00
6.30
6.00
Average Score
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Pre-Screen Criminal History Score
Pre-Screen Social History Score
21
Validity Conclusions

• Pre-Screen has strong predicative validity.
• Predicative validity can be improved by changing
  item weighting.
• It is possible to predict different types of
  re-offending.
• Can analyze assessment data for outcomes other
  than recidivism absconding, supervision
  success, institutional behavior.

22
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23
Six-Month Recidivism for Low, Moderate and High
Risk Youth
50
45
Low Risk Recidivism
40
37.0
35
Moderate Risk Recidivism
30
24.7
Six-Month Recidivism Rate
25
High Risk Recidivism
21.4
20
15.9
15.6
15.0
15
11.3
10.9
9.7
10
6.7
4.7
4.6
5
3.6
2.8
1.1
0
Violent Felony
Non-Violent Felony
Felony
Misdemeanor
Any Recidivism
24
50
45
40
35
30
27.9
Average Predicted Recidivism Probability
23.7
25
22.9
22.4
20
15
10
5
0
European(1)
Afrcian(2)
Native(3)
Asian(5)
25
Mental Health
Afrcian(2)
Neglect
European(1)
Abuse
Alcohol/drug
Parental Rule
Crim Family
Runaway
Out-Of-Home
Peers
School
Male
FTA
Escapes
JRA Disp
Detention
Person Felony
Person Misdem
Weapon
Felony
Misdem
Age First Adj
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
26
What May Be Influencing

• Social-economic forces.
• Societal discrimination.
• Higher Crime Areas arrests.
• Unstructured decision making .
• Washington has structured judicial sentencing.
• George Bridges Study.
• Decline of jurisdiction study.