Churchill Meadows Region Research Project

1
Churchill Meadows Region Research Project

• Nov 2006
• Halton Presbytery Review

2
United Church in Canada

• The United Church is Canada's largest Protestant
  denomination, with close to 3 million Canadians
  who, when asked by Statistics Canada in 2001,
  identified their religion as United Church.
  Represents about 10 of the Canadian population
• Total of 3,527 local congregations across the
  country
• Average households per congregation 136
• Average members per congregation 168
• Average persons under pastoral care 449

3
CMr Overview and Purpose

• Project sponsored by Halton Presbytery, Halton
  United Church Extension Counsel, Erin Mills
  United, Streetsville United and Eden United
  Church
• Purpose was to collect, sort and analyze data on
  the Churchill Meadows Region within Mississauga
  regarding developing new ministry activities
  within the area

4
Project deliverables

• Binder of raw data
• CD with all data, proposals and worksheets
• Presentations and reports
• Survey data
• Maps of area and religious assemblies

5
Data Assumptions

• All growth estimates based on 2001 population
  census data for Churchill Meadows area
• Assumed percent() increases were same across
  years
• Percentage() population increases applied to
  demographics calculations
• Recognize possible flaws in assumptions but a
  starting point

6
Churchill Meadows Profile-2006

• Churchill Meadows population of 26,500
• Represents 4 of Mississauga Population
• Age ranges (CMr)
• 0-19yrs 30 or 8,100
• 20-39yrs 42 or 11,100
• Combined 72 or 19,200
• Age ranges (Cmr)
• 0-10yrs 19 or 5,035
• 30-45yrs 33 or 8,745
• Combined 52 or 13,780

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Growth Forecasts for Churchill Meadows

• Mid-2006 Population estimated at 26,500
• Mid-2010 Population projected at 36,800
• Growth of 37 within Churchill Meadows
• Comparatively, Mississauga to grow from 700,300
  to 720,300 over same period or 3

8
Mississauga Population by Planning District

• Population estimates used for forecasts
• Used 2006-2010
• Current expectations are for actual population
  growth to be accelerated and the 2031(51,3000)
  population to be reached much sooner

9
Change in Population 2005-2031

• It was noted that City Centre growth was also
  significant at over 400
• Mainly condo and hi-density housing
• Maybe opportunity for shared ideas and resources
  in Mission Dev. Across the area

10
Age Groups

• 2006 forecasts based on 2001 census data with
  multipliers based on population growth
• Age ranges 0-1930 20-3942 Combined 72
• Age ranges 0-1019 30-4533 Combined 52

11
School Board Information Churchill Meadows

• 3 Schools currently located within Churchill
  Meadows. One is open and functional, while other
  two set to open Fall 2006
• One Separate Secondary School (St. Joan of Arc
  Secondary School) located at corner of Churchill
  Meadows Blvd. and Thomas St.
• One Separate Elementary School (St. Bernard)
  located at Escada Dr. and Eaglesview Dr.
• One Public Elementary School (Churchill Meadows
  Public School) located at McDowell Dr. and
  Terrapark Trail

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Churchill Meadows Profile-2006

• Churchill Meadows population of 26,500
• Represents 4 of Mississauga Population
• Roman Catholic largest affiliation with 13,000
  (49.1)
• 580 stated a United Church affiliation or (2.2)
• Noted that the 3 churches currently have lt10
  identified households in CMR
• Who/where are the rest??

13
Total Population By Selected Religion

• Religious affiliation forecasts based on 2001
  census data
• note that UC affiliation in CMR is 2.2 - well
  below Mississauga at 6.2

Taken from Churchill Meadows Community Profile
City of Mississauga Planning and Building
Department
14
Survey Results

• 105 People Surveyed, 51 Refused, 123 not
  home
• Have you heard of the United Church of Canada?
  55 Yes
• Religious Affiliation? 36 RC, 17 Muslim, 14
  Protestant, 10 Not Religious, 1 United
• Do you participate in a faith community regularly
  (at least once a month)? 24 No
• Asked to above no respondents Can you see
  yourself attending a Christian Church sometime in
  the future? 35 Yes

15
Potential new members from religious affiliation
(extrapolated)

• Higher potential new members for the UC from the
  highlighted group.
• Approx 7,000 potential new membership base
• of households could be determined using 2.3
  factor
• Growth of potential new member market over 4 yrs
  is 39

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Next Steps - Presbytery

• Recommendations to consider
• Presbytery to develop strategies to discern and
  put in place the staffing and/or other resources
  to develop a United Church presence in the area
  of Churchill Meadows(CMr)
• Halton Presbytery to consider having a Mission
  Development Officer
• Halton Presbytery and the churches of west
  Mississauga employ strategies and build on the
  principles of the emerging spirit in area of CMr.
  
• CMr 30 to 45 yrs. 0 to
  10yrs. 52
• Mississauga 30 to 45 yrs. 0 to 10yrs.
  41
• Environics Survey found that by far the
  most important things to those between the ages
  of 30 and 45 who don't go to church are their
  children (74) and family (71),