Technology Foresight New Opportunities for Bulgaria International Conference

1
Technology Foresight - New Opportunities for
BulgariaInternational Conference

• Sofia, Bulgaria
• May 27, 2004

2
RESULTS ACHIEVED SO FAR IN THE IMPLEMENTATION
OF THE PILOT FORESIGHT EXERCISE IN ROMANIA
Mr. Cristian MarandeiCRIMM Foundationwww.imm.ro

Mr. Radu Albulescu National Experts Panel
ROMANIA
3
Importance of biotechnology and of biotechnology
research on food chain in Romania

• Romanian agriculture and food industry have a
  remarkable potential.
• The agricultural surface represents
• 62.2 of the national territory
• 25.2 of the agricultural surface of the Central
  and East European countries
• 10.25 from the agricultural surface of the EU
  countries.
• The arable surface represents
• 63.2 of Romanias agricultural surface
• 23.0 of the arable surface of the Central and
  East European countries
• 12.6 from the arable surface of the EU
  countries.

4

• The biodiversity both spontaneous and a reach
  variety of species and hybrids adapted to our
  conditions
• A high potential concerning the specialists with
  superior or medium schooling in biotechnology
• A high tradition as regards the research in the
  field of agriculture and food - the percentage in
  culture of creations of the Romanian agricultural
  research as regards the main field cultures and
  horticulture has never sunk under 60.
• The internal market for agrifood products is
  rather well developed and with good perspectives
  of further development

5
Importance of biotechnology and of biotechnology
research on food chain in Romania

• Over 60 of the activities within the field of
  agriculture and of food industry are represented
  by biotechnologies.
• Biotechnology can intervene for the development
  of agriculture and of food industry according to
  the requirements of the protection and
  improvement of the environment quality and can
  solve environmental and food safety problems
  which were created because of
• large forest and lawn surfaces which were
  transformed into agricultural fields - new types
  of eco-systems more unstable and much more
  vulnerable than the natural eco-systems
• the intensive conventional agriculture, the
  industrial development, the urbanization, the
  intensification of the transports.

6

• The scientific activity concerning the
  biotechnology field on food chain is carried out,
  within a complex system through the involvement
  by components and relations between these (rural
  environment, ecological conditions)
• natural resources plants animals primary
  production processing market consumer

7

• Joining to EU
• Quality regulations
• Standardization
• Legislative harmonization.
• In the context of European integration and
  globalization, the Romanian agriculture and food
  industry shall face major challenges concerning
  the development of a sustainable and
  high-performance agriculture from the economic
  and qualitative point of view, the accomplishment
  of food quality and safety and the environment
  protection. The increase of biotechnology
  research contribution to the development of
  agriculture and food industry makes necessary the
  improvement of the conditions for high-quality
  research.

8
Description of the work plan

• Participants
• Institute of Food Bioresources
• Chemical Pharmaceutical Research Institute
• SC Bioing SA
• Initially, 3 panels of experts have been
  established in order to cover the sub-fields
• Agriculture, forestry, food industry and textile
  industry
• Medicine and pharmacy, energetic and extractive
  industry
• Environment, genetics, biology and chemical
  industry.

9

• January 26th - The first Capacity Building
  Workshop
• - the experts developed STEEPV and SWOT exercises
  on those 3 subfields.
• January 27th - a single panel experts was
  established from the three previously available.
  The panel of experts consists of 18 persons
• Institute of Food Bioresources - 7 persons
• Chemical-Pharmaceutics Institute - 6 persons
• SC Bioing - 5 persons.
• The program of panel of experts consisted in a
  weekly meeting at CRIMM headquarter and sub-group
  meetings whenever necessary at the headquarters
  of the three institutes.
• In this respect there were established 3
  subgroups, one in each institute and 2 days,
  Friday and Monday for subgroup meetings. It was
  also built a common e-mail address for panel of
  experts f_group_at_ncpri.ro but there were used
  also phones and faxes for communication.
• All documents elaborated within subgroup
  meetings were disseminated to the others by
  e-mail.

10

• February 4th - the subject selected for the
  foresight exercise was Biotechnology research on
  food chain.
• The following arguments supported the selection
  of this subject
• The high potential of Romania in agriculture and
  food industry
• The task and the aim of the research as promoter
  of healthy and safety agrifood products
• The larger involvement of the Romanian research
  within the European Research Space
• The main objective of our national economy
  consisting in the provision of the food security
  and safety.

11

• The next two meetings have been scheduled having
  regard to the application of STEEPV method on the
  selected subject.
• The panel of experts has created a network with
  over 100 participants (research units,
  manufacturers and processors, associations) that
  can participate with ideas and different
  contributions to the prevision exercises.
• February 11th the group of experts met for
  STEEPV exercise. The priorities found in subgroup
  meetings were processed, discussed and an
  agreement has been reached as regards their
  preservation in the exercise.
• The results of STEEPV exercise materialized in
  20 social, 15 technological, 11 economic, 8
  environmental, 17 policy and 6 ethics priorities.

12

• February 18th - establishing the importance and
  the incertitude of the priorities obtained by way
  of STEEPV exercise
• February 25th - SWOT analysis. The result of this
  meeting consisted in 11 strong points, 25 weak
  points, 27 opportunities and 5 threats in the
  field Biotechnology research on the food chain
• March 10th - SWOT matrix was revised and
  finalized by adding the inputs received from the
  network and from the subgroups from the three
  institutes.

13

• March 24th - discussion about The panel
  activity draft prepared by the chairperson and
  secretary of the panel with the help of CRIMM
• All participants received the paper before
  meeting by e-mail
• There were several improvements of the paper from
  the panel.
• Conclusion of the working groups
• There were 6 meetings of the entire panel and 12
  subgroup meetings.
• The participation of the experts was very dynamic
  and active in all the meetings.
• In all the meetings participated almost all the
  experts and the communication was very good.

14
STEEPV
SOCIAL (I)
Consumers improving conditions life - Food
and social security - Protection and consumer
health - Improving of health and health system
and life expectancy increasing - Safety
environmental conditions job - Morbidity and
demography - Consumer information - Income
and consumer requests increasing - Jobs for
everyone (women, men, young, elderly, persons
with deficiencies so on), unemployment
decreasing - Economic development of poor
districts.
15
SOCIAL (II)

• Research system and researchers
• Scientific performance
• Education and training of specialists
• Researchers motivation
• Stimulation of young and senior researchers
• Educational system for qualified human resources
  
• Supported mobility and free mobility of human
  resources
• Research results dissemination
• Decrease researchers migration.

16
TECHNOLOGICAL

• Laboratory methods and technologies
• GMO control system
• Biotechnological laboratory methods
• Traceability
• Traditional technologies promotion
• Biodegradable packages
• Wastes and subproducts recovery
• Biological vegetal protection
• New energy sources
• Synbiotic products
• New technologies, products, services.
• Infrastructure and quality systems
• Quality systems
• Technological transfer
• Integrate management into ecological system
• Know-how resources
• Research infrastructure.

17
ECONOMIC

• The amount of financial resources
• Research results using, economic indicators
  improving
• Assurance of investment for infrastructure
  development
• Products and services marketing
• The existing of regenerable raw material
• Added value increasing
• Ecological products promotion
• Synergetic economical effect
• Economical reconversion of low developed
  districts
• Stimulation of local area development
• SMEs development.

18
ENVIRONMENTAL

• Bioremediation
• Removing of environment polluting technologies
• Cleaning of wasting waters
• Management and ecosystems protection
• "Clean" technologies
• Wastes management
• Sustainable development
• Risks management.

19
POLITICAL

• Research system
• The adequate amount of research financing
• Investments stimulation
• Research development
• Research infrastructure development
• National Research Programs for research funding
• Network researchers stimulation
• Investment for setting up of pilot plants
• Awareness of government personalities
• Capital for risks
• Birocracies decreasing
• Biotechnological products certifying
• EU integration and globalization
• European standards and legislation adopting and
  harmonizing
• International collaboration
• EU integration and globalization.

20
VALUE-BASED AND ETHICS RELATED ISSUES

• Intellectual property
• Research and researchers ethics
• Biological security
• GMOs releasing control
• Products labeling
• Media research results dissemination.

21
STEEPV
22
SWOT

• STRENGHTS
• Availability of regenerating primary resources -
  potential for the provision of food security
• New technologies, products and services
• Availability of traditional competitive
  technologies and products
• Vegetal biological protection
• National programs
• Inter-disciplinary consortiums
• Legislation adaptation and harmonizing
• Availability of the educational system and the
  qualified labor force
• Know-how resources
• Value-added increase by way of biotechnology
• Economic development of disadvantaged areas
• Ethics of research and researcher.

23
WEAKNESSES

• Regulation of intellectual property rights
• Research infrastructure
• Risk management
• Risk capital
• Labor environment safety
• Involvement of the decision factors
• Technological transfer
• Research share in the product price
• Level of investment
• Research motivation
• Research pilot stations
• Ratification of biotechnological products
• Bureaucracy
• Product and service marketing
• Consumer information
• Dissemination of research results
• GMOs control system

24
OPPORTUNITIES

• Sustainable development Bioremedy, Residual
  water purification, Management integrated in the
  ecological system, Clean technologies, Waste
  management, Biodegradable packages,
  Biotechnological analysis methods, Vegetal
  biological protection, Ecological products
  market
• Food safety and Life quality
• EU integration, European financing programs,
  International collaboration
• Quality systems
• Specialists education and forming, Stimulation
  of young researchers, Mobility of researchers
• Traceability of products
• Non-conventional energy technologies
• Promotion of sinbiotics
• Synergic economic effect, Social inclusion
• SME development
• Mass-media involvement

25
THREATS

• Financing level
• Research infrastructure
• Management and protection of ecosystems
• Non-loyal competition
• Globalization
• Migration of researchers

26
(No Transcript)
27
(No Transcript)
28
SWOT RESULTS

• All the emphasized topics are of medium, great,
  and major importance
• The incertitude has small and medium level, the
  only exception being the migration of
  researchers that has been identified at the
  chapter threats from the SWOT analysis
• The next incertitude value is that of
  globalization that has been also identified by
  the group of experts as a threat of this field,
  because it concentrates more efforts in the
  research field in order to face this phenomenon
• As regards the importance the sustainable
  development detaches itself it includes all the
  aspects where the biotechnology can play a major
  role
• Also very important are the regulations on
  intellectual property rights, ethics of research
  and of researcher and certainly the level of
  financing and research.

29
April 5th - 6th - was organized The Second
Capacity Building Workshop which had the subject
Scenarios development techniques. During the
workshop the panel of experts were initiated with
the method of scenarios, while the future group
activities will have in view the elaboration of 3
scenarios in the field of biotechnology on food
chain. April 19th and 22nd - the panel of
experts had meetings for 3 scenarios developing
Hard Time, Visionary and BAU (Basic As
Usually). April 28th 29th - Dr. David Cohen
was invited as international expert on
Biotechnology to have remarks about the panel of
experts works till this date.
30
Drivers

• Consumer protection (human health promotion
  demographic change)
• Well have a certain level of dev. in the food
  production, the financial developments in the
  field of food production, supporting policies for
  the professional development of research
• There will be some risk in implementing the
  acquis, risks of climatic changes,
• Romania will be a leader in the production of
  safe food

31
Drivers

• Innovative and new technologies needed to perform
  research
• Genetically markers, introduction of technologies
  less time and resource consuming, automation of
  research, cheaper and faster research, use of
  predictive models
• All the above are hardly affordable, people do
  not have enough capacity to use all the above
  technologies.

32
Drivers

• Impact of new technologies on agricultural
  practice/food chain
• Genetic risks, lack of financial means
• Innovative genetic technologies adapted to the
  climatic conditions
• Development of biotech for bio-remediation of
  soils, Technologies for protection of natural
  resources, for management of water and soil
  resources, Production of both natural seeds and
  GMOs
• Agricultural production of raw materials for the
  industry, energy resources
• Increase of income of population, increase of
  consumption requirements, development of
  underdeveloped regions
• Risk of GMOs presence in the food chain
• Increase in life standard of Romanian population
  in line with EU standard.

33
Drivers

• Globalization of markets Ambition of Romania to
  offer certified products on EU and world market
• Production of food for EU by using Romanian
  traditional technologies, qualitative Romanian
  products for the EU markets
• High competition will lead to a decrease in the
  food production in Romania
• Brand names of Romanian products recognized on
  the EU markets.

34
Drivers

• Quality management provision of cost-effective
  food production in Romania
• QMS are fully implemented, Romania will be
  competitive on EU market and domestic market
• QMS fully implemented, but products are
  competitive only on EU market, prices too high
  for the domestic market
• QMS will be implemented only on theory but will
  not be functioning in practice, products will
  have bad quality, no competitiveness on EU or
  domestic market.

35
Drivers

• Brain drain and threat to renewal of human
  resources
• Romania will have healthy economy with high
  research budget, researchers will be well
  motivated, young people will be better motivated
  to work in research
• The economy will continue to have deficiency, so
  research migration will continue
• good management at institutional level concerning
  the stimulation of researchers who are getting
  funds from national and international programs,
  helping young people to apply for fellowships and
  enhancing HR mobility, ensured in employment
  contracts .

36
Drivers

• Political will to put national priority on
  research in food chain due to current potential
• Government will consider agrifood as priority,
  theyll ensure the appropriate research budget
• Government will enhance technology transfer and
  SMEs participation, with high quota co-financing
  coming from SMEs
• Government support for research agrifood is
  insufficient to renew infrastructure, increase of
  brain drain

37
Drivers

• Food safety
• HACCP systems fully implemented in all companies
  from production and processing, the consequences
  are the increase of market for food products,
  increase of well-being of people, demographical
  increase, increase of life expectancy
• HACCP systems are not implemented, and food
  products do not meet consumer confidence, food
  products are excluded from the EU and domestic
  markets
• Implementation of HACCP would lead to an
  extremely rigid food production process,
  bureaucracy, formalizing everything will hinder
  innovation, regulation on food becomes so heavy
  that it is comparable to the one regarding
  pharmaceuticals
• After 10 years of experience of HACCP operation,
  HACCP will allow for increase of flexibility on
  EU level

38
Drivers

• Sustainable development agenda biosafety
  Organic farming in Romania
• There is a clear national policy on encouraging
  sustainable agriculture and organic farming, the
  products are affordable on EU and domestic
  markets
• No national clear national policy encouraging
  sustainable agriculture through subsidies, the
  bio-products are too expensive for the Romanian
  market
• Maintain acceptable level between economic and
  social activities in favor of preserving
  eco-balance

39
Drivers

• CAP reform Acquis WTO negotiations
• Better organized economic development, better
  structured economic environment,, development of
  infrastructure and institutions,
• Decreasing export and decreased food production
  in general
• Elimination or limitation of some types of
  cultures (crops) that do not fit with EU policies

40
Drivers

• The need to link research to development
  Research financing EC Framework Program
  (innovation included)
• Economic development following industrial
  application of new technologies
• Increase of the researchers life standard and
  increase of the researchers competitiveness on
  EU level
• Some national priorities will be overlooked in
  the view of application of only EU priorities

41
Drivers

• Skills and finance to translate research into
  products IP regulation Marketing (applied
  research, technology transfer)
• Increasing licensed products and ensure of
  financial security
• Increasing the costs for patent may result in
  short-term difficulties for people to apply for
  patent, long-term benefits provided by the
  internationalization of the domestic patent
  system,
• Policy incentives to encourage patenting

42
Drivers

• Traceability regulation and enforcement quality
  control consumer confidence
• Increase of export, increase of consumer
  confidence in products
• Increasing the production costs following the
  implementation of strict quality control

43
Drivers

• Structure and reform of the agro-sector labor
  issues
• Increase of the number of farmers associations,
  and of the production quality and its promotion
  on the market
• Decreasing the number of jobs in agriculture
• Limitation of the development in some production
  fields as result of EU policy application

44
Drivers
45
Drivers
46
The first 8 important drivers from the matrix

• Food safety
• Political will to put national priority on
  research in food chain due to current potential
• Consumer protection (human health promotion
  demographic change)
• The need to link research to development
  Research financing EC Framework Program
  (innovation included)

47
The first 8 important drivers from the matrix

• Sustainable development agenda biosafety
  Organic farming in Romania
• Innovative and new technologies needed to perform
  research (biotech, ICT, etc.)
• Impact of new technologies on agricultural
  practice/food chain
• Quality management provision of cost-effective
  food production in Romania

48
Casual links between drivers
49
Scenarios

• Hard Time Scenario
• Basic As Usual Scenario
• Success Scenario

50
RECOMMENDATIONS

• Over 35 from active population are employed in
  agriculture but their work represents only 15
  from Gross Internal Income. It means that is
  necessary a development of this sector concerning
  its efficiency. The increasing of the
  productivity and the quality of agro-products has
  also a positive meaning in food industry.
  Research activities improving is the best way
  for the over said.

51
RECOMMENDATIONS

• The core of biotechnology on food chain research
  needs is the importance that is given to the
  agrifood sector at the national level. Awareness
  is required at political level about the great
  potential of Romania in agriculture and food
  industry and the fact that research in this
  sector has to have the support according with
  this potential.

52
RECOMMENDATIONS

• The aim of agrifood research is to improve food
  quality, to ensure food security and to have
  competitive products and efficient activities.
• The research has to maintain and to increase its
  leading role in quality and food safety. The
  research has to identify the policies that ensure
  food safety and security.

53
RECOMMENDATIONS

• The traceability of agrifood products is very
  important. Innovative and new technologies to
  perform research are required. Genetically
  markers and developing other new technologies to
  ensure traceability is an actual concern in
  research and agrifood industry.

54
RECOMMENDATIONS

• Globalization, European integration of Romania
  will influence consumer requests concerning
  quality and food safety, food security and
  nutrition, legislation and control. Impact of
  new biotechnologies on agricultural practice/food
  chain, new knowledge in this field will satisfy
  these requests.

55
RECOMMENDATIONS

• Sustainable development, biosafety and organic
  farming in Romania are ones of the most
  important priorities for research on
  biotechnology on food chain.
• Consumer requests put, in the first, health
  status of humans, its maintenance and prevention
  against illness

56
RECOMMENDATIONS

• Consumer protection through human health
  promotion represents another important driver
  which will influence researches on biotechnology
  on food chain.
• It is necessary that food to be more complex and
  connected with all aspects which influence human
  body during the life cycle.

57
RECOMMENDATIONS

• In agrifood industry there are 3 steps which lead
  to a high quality
• the quality of agrifood and quality of producers
• national procedures for quality assuring
• quality of legislation.

58
RECOMMENDATIONS

• Environment protection becomes more and more
  important. The number of people is higher and
  higher that means a higher quantity of agrifood
  products and a higher quantity of residues. These
  will influence policies and the ways of
  processing and eating habits.
• Agrifood production has to develop in accordance
  with consumer request and sustainability
  principles, in ecological and ethical values
  conditions.

59
RECOMMENDATIONS

• Collaboration and linking with European Research
  within ERA is very important for Romania, to
  increase the researchers life standard and to
  promote on the European market, Romanian
  products.

60
CONCLUSIONS

• The agriculture and food industry has a great
  potential in Romania and biotechnological
  research on food chain is entirely influenced by
  this potential
• The agrifood policies (implementing of quality
  management systems, control systems, research
  programs, etc.) influence the all the
  activities on food chain inclusive research

61
CONCLUSIONS

• The most important priorities in biotechnological
  research on food chain are food safety and
  consumer protection
• Research in biotechnology has to take into
  account the sustainability development (inclusive
  biosafety) and the great potential of Romania in
  organic farmer

62
CONCLUSIONS

• Supporting research at national level and
  European level (financial, training of
  researchers, etc.) will influence the developing
  of research on biotechnology
• Contribution of Romanian Researchers to ERA
  (mobility of researchers, setting up or entering
  in the research project consortia, etc.)
  influences developing of research in
  biotechnology by improving life standard of the
  researchers and promoting of the Romanian
  research activities at international level.

63
Thank you!