ECMWFDM1

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Simulation et prevision du temps

• Dominique Marbouty
• Head, Operations Department
• European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast
• dominique.marbouty_at_ecmwf.int
• http//www.ecmwf.int

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Agenda

• The current situation
• What is ECMWF? activity, requirements
• Past evolution of ECMWFs computer means
• Comparison with other NWP centres
• Future evolution
• Requirements
• Schedule
• The main issues

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Member States
Belgium The Netherlands Denmark Norway Federal
Republic of Germany Austria Spain Portugal Fra
nce Switzerland Greece Finland Ireland Swede
n Italy Turkey Yugoslavia United
Kingdom Co-operation agreements or working
arrangements with Croatia Iceland WMO ACMAD Hung
ary Slovenia EUMETSAT
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European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
Background 1967 European Council of Ministers
propose co-operation in science and technology
1969 Expert group in meteorology propose
European Meteorological Computing
Centre 1971 Report on EMCC Net benefit of
100m per annum at 1971 prices Establishment
1975 ECMWF convention in force
1978 Headquarters building completed Start of
operational activities 1978 Installation of
first computer system (CRAY 1-A) 1979 Start of
operations (N48 grid point model) 1983 T63 / L16
spectral model 1983 CRAY X-MP/22, IBM data
storage system 1985 T106/L19 spectral
model 1985 CRAY X-MP, DEC telecommunications
system (VAX) 1990 CRAY Y-MP8/8-64 1991 T213 /
L31 spectral model 1992 CRAY C90 - ocean wave
forecasting 1993 Ensemble prediction
system 1996 Fujitsu VPP300-C and
VPP700-46 1997 Fujitsu VPP700-116 1999 Enhanced
Fujitsu VPP system
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ECMWF in a few figures

• Participants 20 States
• Age 25 years
• Staffing 200 persons
• Budget 25m
• Model resolution 60 km
• EPS 50 elements

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ECMWFs principal objectives

• development of numerical models for weather
  forecasting
• daily distribution of forecasts to its Member
  States
• development of seasonal forecasting
• collection and storage of appropriate
  meteorological data
• allowing research staff to access these archives
  from remote sites
• providing computer resources to Member States

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IFS/ARPEGE

• NWP package developed jointly by ECMWF and
  Météo-France
• includes forecast model, 4D-Var assimilation
  system, ensemble prediction system
• Medium range forecast TL319 L60 (60 km)
• 4D-Var TL319/T63 (60/300km)
• EPS TL159 L40 (120km) 51 members
• SF atm TL95 (200km) ocean 2ox2ox20

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FUJITSU VPP700 (116 PEs)
FUJITSU VPP700E (48 PEs)
IBM SP
FUJITSU VPP300 (9 PEs)
HIPPI
FDDI
FUJITSU VPP300 (4 PEs)
SGI Challenge
SGI Origin 2000
IBM RS/6000
Router
VAX
HP 9000
E T H E R N E T
Firewall
Router
Router
DEC
WWW
PCs
Router
SGIs
SGIs
TCP/IP
DECNET
JANET/INTERNET
MEMBER STATES
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ECMWF Supercomputer Growth
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The current ECMWFs computers

• Fujitsu VPP 700/116 peak 255 Gflops sustained
  80 Gflops
• Fujitsu VPP 700E/48 peak 115 Gflops sustained
  35 Gflops
• Fujitsu VPP 5000/38 peak 365 Gflops sustained
  110 Gflops ____ _____
  735 225
• From next August
• Fujitsu VPP 5000/100 peak 960 Gflops sustained
  288 Gflops ____ _____
  1330 400

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Other NWP Centres

• UKMO SGI T3E900 /876 pk 788 Gf st 79
  Gf SGI T3E1200/636 pk 763 Gf st 76
  Gf _________ ______
  1550 Gf 155? Gf
• DWD SGI T3E1200/812 pk 974 Gf st 97? Gf
• Météo-France Fujitsu VPP5000/31 pk 298 Gf
  st 90? Gf
• NCEP IBM SP/768 pk 614 Gf st 45?Gf

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The targets setfor period 1999 to 2008

• an extension of the skill of the deterministic
  forecast, as measured by the NH 500 hPa height
  field reaching 60, by one day
• a gain of one day at D6 in the Brier skill-score
  for EPS-based probabilistic forecasts of moderate
  850 hPa temperature anomalies (4K or larger) over
  Europe
• preparation by 2003 of an assessment of seasonal
  forecast skill over the last 40 years
• improving timeliness and reliability of product
  dissemination
• provision of good forecasts of severe weather
  towards day 4 or day 5 - this requires the
  development of a suitable performance evaluation
  relating to severe weather.

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Approach

• the development of an increasingly accurate
  earth-system model, using efficient and
  economical numerical methods together with a
  comprehensive and exhaustively-validated physical
  parameterisation package
• the development of improved data assimilation
  systems employing the most advanced mathematical
  methods to extract information from in-situ data
  and from operational and research satellites
• the development of improved EPS techniques for
  medium-range, extended-range and seasonal
  forecasting.

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Development of the operational system-2000 to 2001

• a 60-level TL511 (40km horizontal resolution)
  4D-Var data assimilation system, with analysis
  increments corresponding to the inner loop
  resolution of TL255 (80km)
• a Reduced Rank Kalman Filter (RRKF) to provide
  estimates of flow-dependent background and
  analysis errors
• a 60-level TL511 (40km horizontal resolution)
  deterministic model
• a 60-level TL255 (80km horizontal resolution),100
  elements, EPS model
• a 60-level TL95 (120km horizontal resolution)
  atmospheric/ocean model for seasonal prediction.

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Next developments

• By 2001 - the effective utilisation of METEOSAT
  Second Generation geostationary satellite data
  will require a move towards a resolution of 40 km
  for the global analysis/forecast system
  employing 90 levels
• By 2003 - full use of a 30 km 90 level system to
  enable effective use of data from Europes polar
  orbiting METOP satellite
• By 2008 - doubling of the horizontal resolution
  to 20 km and increased vertical resolution will
  improve the exploitation of data from the high
  resolution satellite-borne sounders such as IASI
  and AIRS and other high resolution data over land

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Draft schedule for the next computer

• December 2000 specifications decided by ECMWFs
  Council
• 2001 run Invitation To Tender (ITT)
• December 2001 decision
• 2002 installation, parallel run, move operations
  to new machine

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The preparation of the ITT

• Facilitate competition RAPS
• RAPS6 to be issued this May (includes 4D-Var)
• Vector / Scalar open choice
• code adaptation is being prepared

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Growth in the ECMWF archives
Petabytes
Storage growth in petabytes
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Conclusions

• Exploitation of the current Earth System
  Modelling capabilities and of the full
  information content of new satellite data will
  require substantial computer resources - the
  benefit will vastly improved forecast from a few
  days to a few seasons ahead
• The HPC could be acquired provided budgets are
  maintained in real-terms.
• Managing petabyte archives will be a major
  challenge.