Representing the Contemporary Operational Environment in Objective OneSAF

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Representing the Contemporary Operational
Environment in Objective OneSAF
TRADOC Intelligence Support Activity
(TRISA)-Threats Ft. Leavenworth, KS Benjamin
Jordan Director, TRISA MS
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COE Definition and Critical Variables

• The contemporary operational environment (COE)
  is the synergistic combination of all the
  critical variables and actors that create the
  conditions, circumstances, and influences that
  can affect military operations today and in the
  near- and mid-term. 
• Critical variables Political, Military,
  Economic, Social, Infrastructure, Information
  plus Physical Environment and Time PMESIIPT

The force on force paradigm has
changedrepresentation must incorporate
political, economic, cultural and informational
effects over time
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Strategic Realities Impacts on the US Army

• Irregular warfare is our steady state environment
  for near term a period of consistent conflict
• Army Posture Statement
• More than just OEF/OIF
• Adversaries will employ traditional, irregular,
  catastrophic and disruptive challenges
• Quadrennial Defense Review
• Must be prepared to fight any type of adversary
  (or combination of adversaries) at various points
  along the spectrum of conflict

Niche technologies increase risk and probability
across conflict continuum
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Adversary View of US

• Major power with overall technological advantage.
• Prefer standoff combat.
• Depend on high technology.
• Depend on information dominance.
• Conduct predictable military operations.

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Adversary View of US Cont.

• Unwilling to accept heavy losses.
• Sensitive to domestic and world opinion.
• Lack of commitment over time.
• Lack of cultural awareness.

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Adversary View of US Cont.

• Vulnerability of coalitions.
• Vulnerability of force projection.

• Depend on robust logistics.
• Rely on contractor support.
• Stretched military resources.

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OOS Development Process
Behavior data reasonable versus correct
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Stability Reconstruction Operations
Methodology
Observe Orient Decide Act Force Activity
(FA)
Reactive Events
Alternate Communications Architecture (e.g.,
media)
Various FA (e.g., assassinate)
Continuous Entity Behavior Change (e.g.,
go/dont go to market)

• FA
• IO
• PSYOP
• (threat to
• assassinate)
• CMO
• Kinetic

• Soft Factors
• Autonomy
• QOL
• Culture
• Safety

MOOD -
Cooperation Level -
Information Exchange (HUMINT -)
Third order effects
First order effects
Second order effects
Time warping2-3 month turns over 1-3 year time
period(s)
Cyclical process
-Political Activity -Economic Activity -Informati
on Activity
DIME
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Alternate Communications Means
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OOS COE(-) C2 Messaging Development Sequence
(i.e. Terrorist)
1. ID COE(-) Organization.
(i.e. Multi-function Direct Action Cell)
2. ID Sub-Org Type.
(i.e. Cell Leader)
3. ID Organization Role.
(i.e. Kidnap)
4. ID Behavior.
5. What is information exchange required For
behavior or due to behavior.
From To Means Content Data Range Stimuli
?
(include other COE(-) orgs, sub-orgs and org
roles)
?
6. What is done with information provided to
recipient.
Message Action Reply (see above for
requirements) Forward (see above for
requirements) New Message (see above for
requirements) None Behavior Action Do Dont
Do
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Message Path Diagram Unattended IED
(Roadside/HB/VB) Terrorist Group
Assumptions 1. Terrorists have a single
network with multiple comms means therefore the
network path does not change based on ACM
type. 2. ACM can change from echelon to echelon
as long as transmission ACM is compatible with
receiver ACM. 3. IED can be VB, HB or
Roadside. 4. Behavior Message can start as low
as Cell Leader. 5. Controller type will depend
on IED type. 6. Subscriber type will depend on
IED type.
2W Radio - VHF-H, VHF-V Telephonic Land Line
Cell Phone, Sat Phone, Pager Web Based - email
Group Leader
Terrorist Group
2W Radio - VHF-H, VHF-V Telephonic Land Line,
Cell Phone, Sat Phone, Pager Web Based - email
Wing Leader
Armed Wing
2W Radio - VHF-H, VHF-M, VFH-V Telephonic Land
Line, Cell Phone, Sat Phone, Pager Web Based -
email
Cell Leader
DA Cell
Event Sequence
2W Radio - VHF-H, VFH-M Telephonic Land Line,
Cell Phone, Sat Phone Web Based - email
Cell Leader
Bomb Sabotage Cell

• Group Leader issues IED directive to Armed Wing
  Leader.
• Wing Leader forwards IED directive to Direct
  Action Cell Leader.
• Direct Action Cell Leader forwards directive to
  Bomb Sabotage Cell Leader.
• Bomb Sabotage Cell Leader forwards directive to
  Bomb Sabotage Team Leader.
• Bomb Sabotage Team Leader forwards directive to
  Tactical Bomb or Suicide Bomb Element Controller.
  Team Leader consumes message.
• Bomb Element Controller forwards directive to
  Suicide Bomber or Technician. Controller and
  Bomber or Technician consume message.

Team Leader
Bomb Sabotage Team
2W Radio - VHF-H Telephonic Land Line, Cell
Phone
Tactical Bomb IED Element/ Suicide Bomb Element
Controller
2W Radio - VHF-H Telephonic Land Line, Cell
Phone
Subcriber
Suicide Bomber/ Technician
Telephonic Cell Phone, Pager
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Key COE Behaviors/Functionality/Effects

• IED attack against Convoy, Entry Control Point,
  Explosive Ordinance Detachment, and Tactical
  Operations (ordnance based, plastic)
• Unattended IED
• HBIED
• VBIED
• Ambush (ground/air/urban) Volley indirect fire
  of direct fire weapons, e.g., RPG
• Collateral effects noncombatants civilian
  vehicles
• Coercion
• Assassination
• Hostage Taking
• Intimidation by Presence
• Shielding Tactics --Attack and Defend from
  protected sites (hospitals, mosques, markets,
  residential sites)

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Key COE Behaviors/Functionality/Effects

• Penetration/spalling of wall/building/assorted
  materials by direct fire/indirect fire munitions/
  consequent effects on DI, vehicles, buildings
  etc.
• Simultaneous detonation effects of multiple mixed
  caliber munitions or plastic
• Cache Cache Networks (weapons/explosives/etc.,)
  vice normal re-supply
• Improvised weapons (rocks, machetes, side attack
  mines, incendiaries (Molotov Cocktail, thickened
  fuel), industrial chemicals, burning debris
  (tires/ other flammables)
• Improvised/expedient obstacles (e.g., IEDs)
  placed in rubble, building rubble, vehicle hulks,
  burning debris
• Shooting within and from subterranean features

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Key COE Behaviors/Functionality/Effects

• HUMINT Modelinformation exchange between groups
  and forces
• Dynamic side change as second third order
  effects
• Arming noncombatants attack by noncombatants
• Continuous Entity Behaviors (CEB)scheduling
  routine activities--representing patterns of
  noncombatant behavior
• CEB response to PSYOP/Coercionpressure metrics
  to express second or third order effects
• Reactive events generation as function of force
  activities soft factors influence second/third
  order effects (e.g., spawning/absorbing
  insurgents, information exchange)

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Key COE Behaviors/Functionality/Effects

• OPFOR transport and small arms attack from
  non-tactical vehicles (pickups, sedans, vans,
  motorcycle)
• Terrain as a weapon--ability to cause
  environmental obstacle/hazard (e.g., detonate oil
  wells, cause industrial chemical spill, detonate
  nuclear waste site, contaminate H20)
• Expedient field fortification of fighting
  positions within buildings
• Sniper (counter-sniper role and counter-force
  role, noncombatant assassination
• Soft Factors influence second/third Order Effects
• Reduced-profile shooting (e.g., prone shooting
  from roof top) shooting from loop holes,
  subterranean features spider holes, cellar,
  sewers

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Key COE Behaviors/Functionality/Effects

• Mouse-holing ability to cut mouse-holes and fire
  from mouse-holes vice defined apertures
• Expedient breach (satchel charge) for movement
  between buildings, rooms floors
• Expedient interior urban obstaclesdestroy
  stairwells rubble/debris to block
  entrances/exits
• Infiltration of OPFOR force, foreign combatants,
  etc., disguised as noncombatants, acquire weapons
  from cache, captured stocks, move to rally point,
  attk target
• Weather/climate/terrain/ effects upon combatant,
  noncombatant mobility, visibility, lethality,
  communications

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Key COE Behaviors/Functionality/Effects

• Mass migration, looting, rioting
• Stand off attack indirect harassing fires
• Information Operations (PSYOP, EW)
• Direct fire of indirect fire weapons
• Urban attack/defense
• Battle Command/C2 -- Alternate Communications
  Means
• Controlled Mines

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Key COE Organizations

• Conventional unit formations-- IC through
  division (CBT, CS, CSS)
• SOF formations
• State-sponsored paramilitary
• Non-state sponsored paramilitary/irregulars/Insurg
  ent
• Terrorist formations
• Guerrilla
• Civilian non-combatantsrefugees/displaced
  civilians
• NGO, IO
• Civilian combatants --not part of any
  paramilitary construct but have, or may acquire
  arms (e.g., criminal elements, PSO, rioters) may
  act individually or collectively

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• Questions/Discussion