John H. Ward

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Family of Services EMC Update

• John H. Ward
• Chief, Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch
• June 25, 2009

Where Americas Climate, Weather and Ocean
Services Begin
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Topics

• Update on 2009 planned implementations
• Preliminary look at 2010
• National Environmental Modeling System
• NAM Rapid Refresh Evolution

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NCEPs Model Suite
CLIMATE CFS
Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III
Coupled
GFS MOM3/4
3.5B Obs / Day
Mostly Satellite Radar
North American Mesoscale NMM
Dispersion, Ash, Smoke Dust ARLs HYSPLIT
Global Forecast System
Global Data Assimilation
Severe Weather
NMM ARW
Regional Data Assimilation
Short-Range Ensemble Forecast
Air Quality
NMM ARW ETA RSM
NAM EPA/ ARLs CMAQ
North American Ensemble Forecast System
GFS Canadian Global
Rapid Update for Aviation GSDs RUC
Very Short Range Ensemble Forecasts Time-Lagged
RUCNAM
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2009 Implementations
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SREF Changes

• Upgrade models WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW and RSM
• Increase horizontal resolution for ARW (45 km to
  35 km), NMM (40 km to 32 km), and RSM (40 km to
  32 km)
• Add 4 WRF members while eliminating 4 Eta members
• For the 3 RSM members replace Zhou cloud with
  Ferrier
• Use Global Ensemble Transform (ET) perturbations
  for the 10 WRF members
• Increase output frequency from every 3 hr to
  hourly for 1st 39hr (for SPC, AWC)
• Add/fix/unify variables in SREF output
• wind variance products (for DTRA)
• radar (composite reflectivity echo top) (for
  FAA)
• unify PBL height diagnosis with critical Ri
  (aviation)
• fix cloud base (aviation)
• BUFR broken out into individual station
  time-series (SPC)

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New product example of Radar Echo Top comparing
with NAM-12km Composite Radar Reflectivity
Echo-top from SREF (NMM-ctl)
Radar-reflectivity from NMM-12km
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2009 Implementations
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Post Consolidation GFS Restructuring

• Improved algorithms for the calculation of
• Vorticity
• Isentropic Potential Vorticity
• Dynamic Tropopause Fields
• PBL Mean RH
• Best CAPE/CIN
• Best Lifted Index
• LFM 0.33-1.00 RH
• Additional Fields
• Relative Humidity At 10...30...50 and 70 mb
• Helicity
• ICAO Tropopause Height and Maximum Wind Level
• Sunshine Duration Last element for TIGGE

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Proposed HWRF

• Gravity Wave Drag Parameterization
• Modified Initialization
• Wind Driven Sea Spray
• Bug fix for Land Surface Temperature
• Bug fix for solar radiation
• Bug fix for non-hydrostatic advection of vertical
  velocity
• Q2FY09 GSI/GFS for initial and boundary
  conditions
• Restart capability
• Unified scripting with advanced options for
  high-resolution, 3-way coupling with POM, HYCOM,
  Wave Watch III genesis mode etc.

Withdrawn for 2009
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GEFS Planned Changes

• Continue using current operational GFS
• Upgrade horizontal resolution from T126 to T190
• 4 cycles per day, 201 members per cycle
• Up to 384 hours (16 days)
• Use 8th order horizontal diffusion for all
  resolutions
• Improved forecast skills and ensemble spread
• Introduce ESMF (Earth System Modeling Framework)
  for GEFS
• Version 3.1.0rp2
• Allows concurrent generation of all ensemble
  members
• Needed for efficiency of stochastic perturbation
  scheme
• Add stochastic perturbation scheme to account for
  random model errors
• Increased ensemble spread and forecast skill
  (reliability)
• Add new variables (27 more) to pgrba files
• Based on user request
• From current 52 (variables) to future 79
  (variables)
• For NAEFS ensemble data exchange

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NH Anomaly Correlation for 500hPa HeightPeriod
August 1st September 30th 2007
GEFSg could extend skillful forecast (60) for 9
days 24 hours better than current GEFS 48 hours
better than current GFS
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2009 Implementations
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2009 Implementations
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Global model Upgrade Domain Extension
Extended domain provides more region for swell
development on the North shores of Alaska during
the summer months when ice will melt
Current Domain
New Domain
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2010 Implementations
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National Environmental Modeling System
(NEMS)(uses standard ESMF compliant software)
Application Driver
ESMF Superstructure (component definitions,
mpi communications, etc)
Analysis -------------- Ocean ------------- Wind
Waves -------------- LSM -------------- AQ -------
------- Ens. Gen. -------------- Ecosystem -------
------- Etc
Atmospheric Model
Physics (1,2,3)
Coupler1 Coupler2 Coupler3 Coupler4 Coupler5 Coupl
er6 Coupler7 Etc.
Dynamics (1,2)
1-1 1-2 1-3 2-1 2-2 2-3
Multi-component ensemble Stochastic forcing
Bias Corrector Post processor Product
Generator Verification Resolution change
ESMF Utilities (clock, error handling, etc)
Earth System Modeling Framework (NCAR/CISL,
NASA/GMAO, Navy (NRL), NCEP/EMC), NOAA/GFDL
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NCEP Production Suite Weather, Ocean, Land
Climate Forecast Systems
Current
Current (2007)
GDAS
GFS anal
NAM anal
GFS
SREF
HUR
NAM
GENS/NAEFS
RDAS
AQ
RTOFS
CFS
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NCEP Production Suite Weather, Ocean, Land
Climate Forecast Systems
Next Generation Prototype Phase 4 2015
Computing factor 81
Rap Refresh
WAV
SREF
Reforecast

• Added
• Hourly GDAS
• RDAS
• Moved
• GFS concurrent
• w/ NAM SREF
• Expanded
• Hurricane
• capability (hires)
• Reforecast done
• routinely

HUR
NAM
CFS MFS
Global
GENS/NAEFS
GFS
RTOFS
RTOFS
Hydro / NIDIS/FF
AQ
AQ
CFS MFS
Regional

RDAS
Hydro
GDAS
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2009

• NAM
• WRF-NMM (Egrid)
• GSI analysis
• 4/Day 6 hr update
• Forecasts to 84 hours
• 12 km horizontal
• 60 layers with 2 mb top
• 12 hr pre-forecast assimilation period with 3hr
  updates (catch-up)

• RUC
• Non-WRF RUC model
• RUC 3DVAR analysis
• 24/Day hourly update
• Forecasts to 18 hours
• 13 km horizontal
• 50 layers with 50 mb top
• Continuous forward cycle with no pre-forecast
  assimilation period

RUC-13 CONUS domain
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2010-2011

• NAM
• NEMS based NMM
• Bgrid replaces Egrid
• Parent remains at 12 km
• Multiple Nests Run to 48hr
• 4 km CONUS nest
• 6 km Alaska nest
• 3 km HI PR nests, and/or a 1.5-2km
  DHS/FireWeather/IMET are possible

• Rapid Refresh
• WRF-based ARW
• NCEPs GSI analysis
• Expanded 13 km Domain to include Alaska
• Experimental 3 km HRRR

WRF-Rapid Refresh domain 2010
RUC-13 CONUS domain
Original CONUS domain
Experimental 3 km HRRR
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2012-2013

• NAM/Rapid Refresh ENSEMBLE (NRRE)
• NEMS-based NMMB ARW prediction models
• Both initialized with same GSI analysis code
• Common NAM parent domain at 10-12 km
• Initially 6 member ensemble made up of equal
  numbers of NMMB- ARW-based configurations
• Hourly updated with forecasts to 24 hours
• NMMB ARW control data assimilation cycles with
  3 hour pre-forecast period (catch-up) with hourly
  updating
• NAM 84 hr forecasts are extensions of the 00z,
  06z, 12z, 18z runs.

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2012-2013

• High Resolution Rapid Refresh ENSEMBLE (HRRRE)
• Each member of NRRE contains
• 3 km CONUS and Alaskan nests
• Control runs initialized with radar data
• Positions NWSNCEPESRL to
• Provide NextGen Enroute A N D Terminal guidance
• Provide PROBABILITY guidance
• Improve assimilation capabilities with radar
  satellite
• Tackle Warn-on-Forecast as resolutions evolve
  towards 1 km
• NAM nests are extensions of the 00z, 06z, 12z
  18Z runs.
• Both NRRE and HRRRE
• Require Bigger NCEP Computer

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References

• Ensemble Perturbations
• http//www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/papers/Tellus
  A2008_ET.pdf
• NEMS
• ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/154223.pdf
• HWRF
• http//www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/HWRF/index.html
• Multi-Grid Wave
• http//www.waveworkshop.org/10thWaves/Presentation
  s/B3.20chawlaetal.pdf