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Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa Variability,
Vulnerability and Adaptation
Ruerd Ruben Associate Professor WUR
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Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa
Central Issues ? LFAs Heterogeneity and
Vulnerability ? GEC-ICCD Risk and
Adaptation ? Linking production, expenditures
labour use ? Bio-economic farm household
modelling ? Food chains and networks approach
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Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa
Extensive Growth
120,0
25
100,0
20
80,0
15
1989-91100
kilogrammes
60,0
10
40,0
5
20,0
0
0,0
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
Decreasing Fertilizer Use
Increasing Cropping Area
Source Ruben Kuyvenhoven (2003)
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Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa
SSA Agricultural Development

Small increase food production Decreasing food
supply Rising input costs Lower food prices
Source Ruben Kuyvenhoven (2003)
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Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa
Topics and Approaches Production options --gt
Crop simulation models Income composition
--gt Portfolio analysis Risk coping
strategies --gt Livelihood analysis
Rural incentives --gt Bio-economic
models Bio-efficiency --gt Chain analysis
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Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa

Poverty in LFAs - Chronic Poverty Resource
Degradation - High transaction costs Low
factor productivity
Source Hazell Ruben (2003)
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Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa
Economic potential of LFAs
Despite lower level, higher potential !
Source Ruben Pender (2004))
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Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa
Weather and Climate ? Irregular precipitation ?
Concentrated showers
Source Hengsdijk (2003)
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Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa
Critical Importance of sowing date
Source Hengsdijk (2003)
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Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa
Sustainable Intensification ? Complementarities
Labour External Inputs ? Improving input
efficiency ? Better yields labour
productivity ?
2
1
labour
4
3
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Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa
Bio-economic Farm Household modeling
Source Kruseman, Ruben Kuyvenhoven (2003)
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Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa

• Consumption behaviour
• Data derived from expenditure surveys (PRSP)
• Based on utility maximization Uc f (Umax
  (1-e) -?Y
• Engel curves for income-consumption
  relationship
• Negative exponential utility function
  (declining ?U/?Y)
• Estimated for all income and consumption
  categories

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Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa
FHH Models Supply Response to Policy Incentives
(Mali)
--gt Selection of feasible technologies and
appropriate instruments --gt Win-win scenarios
Source Ruben et al (in Lee Barratt, 2001)
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Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa
Adaptive behaviour

• Responses to decreasing rainfall
• less cotton, more arachide
• more millet

Source Dietz, Ruben Verhagen (2004)
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Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa

• Options for dealing with livelihood stress
• Food acquisition
• Direct/Indirect Food Intensification
• Market exchange
• Income/Activity Diversification
• Off-farm employment
• Social arrangements
• Reducing food intake

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Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa

• Strategies for dealing with micronutrient
  deficiencies
• (searching for bio-efficacy)
• Dietary diversification
• Supplementation
• Post-harvest processing
• Fortification
• Biofortification (through breeding)

MN supply
Uptake efficiency
MN demand
Source Slingerland et al., (2003)
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Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa
Further Perspectives ? Sustainable
intensification ? Uptake efficiency (plants
humans) ? Chain network
integration ? Multi-agency analysis ?
Impact of Policy instruments