JEERA Reaching New Heights

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JEERA Reaching New Heights

• Kishore Narne
• 7 Oct 2006

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Introduction

• Botanical Name Cuminum cyminum.
• Variety S-404, MC-43. Gujarat Cumin-1(GC-1),
  GC-2, GC-3, RS-1, UC-198, RZ-19, etc
• Sowing time It is a rabi crop sown in October
  November
• Harvested in February
• Jeera requires moderate rainfall for its growth
• 110 to 115 days depending on variety

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Uses

• As culinary spice
• Used in beverages
• Ayurvedic Medicines
• Biscuits, Confectionery and other spicy products
• Also used in different industries for its
  essential oil

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Where it is produced
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Global Scenario

• India and Egypt are the largest cumin production
  regions
• Also produced in Iran, Syria and Turkey but only
  for exports
• Both whole seeds and powdered seeds are
  internationally traded
• Cumin essential oil is also becoming popular in
  the western hemisphere
• The global consumption of cumin seeds is quite
  low, except in India and Middle east

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Indian Scenario

• India is the largest producer and consumer of
  cumin
• The annual production ranged between 1.5 lakh
  metric tonnes to 2 lakh metric tonnes
• Rajasthan and Gujarat are the main producing
  States
• Significant percentage of the total production is
  used for domestic consumption
• Exported to Japan, Brazil, US, UK, UAE etc.

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Outlook
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Production, Area and Yield
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Figures at a glance
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Macro Scenario

• Production Estimates for current year
• Syria 25 thousand tonnes (25 less then last
  year)
• Turkey  12-14 thousand tonnes (6 less than last
  year)
• Iran 50 thousand quintal (50 less as compare to
  last year)
• Turkey and Syria Inferior in Quality
• Major producer India, Production down by 40
• No fresh arrivals in line for the next 6 months
• Lower carry over

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India

• Currently witnessing a relief rally
• Festive Demand
• Sowing activity picking up
• Ample soil moisture levels in Gujarat
• Current prices very attractive for farmers

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Technicals - Daily
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Weekly
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Outlook

• Short term Over Sold
• Festive Demand
• Quality Specifications on the Exchange
• Technical Pullback

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Outlook

• Medium Long Term Bearish
• Valuations are stretched
• Turkey Prices _at_ 1950 where as India prices are
  2250
• Crop is expected to be huge
• Acreage expected to see a sharp raise
• If the whether conditions remains favorable
  expect a raise of 50-60 in acreage
• We expect the prices to go beyond Rs.6500/qtl by
  Feb-Mar 07

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Risk Factors

• At this point of the year the Temperatures in
  Gujarat should be below 30o C but currently are
  at 39oC
• There should not the rain fall with winds towards
  end of October
• If the rains destroy the crop towards end of
  October then the prices may sustain above
  Rs.8000-9000/Qtl

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Thank You