EWGLAMSRNWP Annual Meetings 2005 SRNWP Business Meeting

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EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meetings 2005SRNWP Business
Meeting
Short-Range Numerical Weather Prediction
Programme

• 5 October 2005
• Ljubljana (Slovenia)

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Agenda

• The Network of Consortia
• Programme OPERA Compositing necessary
• EUCOS II (2007 2011) Action required
• Soundings BUFR besides TEMP
• STORMNET (Dominique)
• Model comparison
• Hub for high resolution precipitation
  observations
• Dissemination of hourly SYNOPs
• GPS Zenital Total Delays
• SRNWP PEPS
• Other points

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Agenda

• The Network of Consortia
• Programme OPERA Compositing necessary
• EUCOS II (2007 2011) Action required
• Soundings BUFR besides TEMP
• STORMNET (Dominique)
• Model comparison
• Hub for high resolution precipitation
  observations
• Dissemination of hourly SYNOPs
• GPS Zenital Total Delays
• SRNWP PEPS

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The Network of Consortia

• HIRLAM
• Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Ireland,Netherlands
  , Norway, Spain, Sweden
• COSMO
• Germany, Greece, Italy, Poland (Warsaw
  Branch), Romania, Switzerland
• ALADIN
• Austria, Belgium, France, Portugal,Bulgaria,
  Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary,Moldova, Poland
  (Cracow Branch), Romania,Slovakia, Slovenia
• ALADIN LACE
• Austria, Croatia, Czech Republic,
  Hungary,Slovakia, Slovenia
• UKMO
• United Kingdom
• 26 NWS are Members of the SRNWP Programme
  EUMETNET Member

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Agenda

• The Network of Consortia
• Programme OPERA Compositing necessary
• EUCOS II (2007 2011) Action required
• Soundings BUFR besides TEMP
• STORMNET (Dominique)
• Model comparison
• Hub for high resolution precipitation
  observations
• Dissemination of hourly SYNOPs
• GPS Zenital Total Delays
• SRNWP PEPS
• Other points

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OPERA II

• 2004-2006
• Responsible Member FMI Project Manager
  Asko Huuskonen
• Data hub at the Met Office rain. Also VAD and
  VVP (wind profiles).
• From the OPERA Programme Decision, Point E
• To compile a set of European reference product
  and quality algorithms.
• Planned from the OPERA Programme was a European
  composite that the
• Met Office would produce every day (00-24 UTC
  accumulated rain).
• From the List of Decisions of the 23rd EUMETNET
  Council, 14th Dec. 2004
• under OPERA
• 20000 euro will be released to start the
  developments of the hub system,
• excluding any work on compositing
• Reason (Minutes Final Draft of C23, page 3)
• rain accumulation products had a commercial
  value and, therefore,
• ... would place the OPERA programme in
  competition with the private sector

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Radar compositing is needed by the Short-range
NWP community for - validation and verification
of the precipitations of the meso-scale LAMs -
definition of better initial conditions by
assimilation of precipitations It would be a
waste of time and resources if the same work
(holding the radar data from the hub and making a
composite) should be done in several NWS.
Recommendation At the 12th Meeting of the SRNWP
Programme held the 5th of October 2005 in
Ljubljana, the NWS delegates passed the following
recommendation The European Short-Range NWP
community asks the EUMETNET Council to recall its
decision taken at its 23th Meeting (14th of
December 2004 in Reading) to exclude from the
OPERA Programme any work on compositing (Point
1 of the List of Decisions).
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Agenda

• The Network of Consortia
• Programme OPERA Compositing necessary
• EUCOS II (2007 2011) Action required
• Soundings BUFR besides TEMP
• STORMNET (Dominique)
• Model comparison
• Hub for high resolution precipitation
  observations
• Dissemination of hourly SYNOPs
• GPS Zenital Total Delays
• SRNWP PEPS
• Other points

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Purpose of EUCOS
Agreed by EUMETNET Council in November
2000 EUCOS is the ground-based observing system
designed to serve the needs of General Numerical
Weather Prediction (GNWP) over Europe Aim of
the EUCOS preparatory phase (2000-2001) To
define an optimised design for a composite
observing system which would serve regional scale
numerical weather prediction requirements Aim
of present phase of EUCOS (2002-2006) Deployment
of this composite observing system. EUCOS
terminates the 31st of December 2006. A second
phase (2007-2011) is planed
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The revised observing system

• EUCOS considered that the experienced development
  and implementation these last years of new
  observing systems such as
• - wind profilers
• radar wind profiles (VAD and VVD)
• and
• - the massive growth of AMDAR
• would allow to significantly reduce the number of
  upper-air soundings stations.

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3 and 6 hourly AMDAR profile 2008 potential
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Selected daily E-AMDAR profile coverage
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Recommendation Considering that the Proposed
Revised Design presented in the Review of the
EUCOS Upper-Air Network Design of 18 May 2005
does not consider the observational requirements
needed for the high-resolution short-range NWP
models, the European Short-Range NWP community
asks the EUCOS Programme Board and the EUCOS
Advisory Group to significantly increased the
density of observations and to make sure that
this density remain sufficient at night. More
generally, the delegates of the 12th Meeting of
the SRNWP Programme held the 5th of October 2005
in Ljubljana ask that in the second phase of the
EUCOS Programme (2007-2011) the same attention,
priority and resources be given for the
observation of the meso-scale as it will be done
for the observation of the synoptic scale.
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Agenda

• The Network of Consortia
• Programme OPERA Compositing necessary
• EUCOS II (2007 2011) Action required
• Soundings BUFR besides TEMP
• STORMNET (Dominique)
• Model comparison
• Hub for high resolution precipitation
  observations
• Dissemination of hourly SYNOPs
• GPS Zenital Total Delays
• SRNWP PEPS
• Other points

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Migration to Binary Code

• BUFR code for dissemination of radiosonde data
  would permit
• exact time of measurement
• transmission of the actual sonde coordinates
  during ascent
• higher vertical resolution data
• simpler code (no A-, B-, C-, D-group)
• Vaisala has indicated that his sonde and software
  are already able to provide the information in
  BUFR, but some implementation work is needed at
  the NWS.
• The WWW Department of the WMO is making efforts
  to encourage migration to binary based code.
  Europe could play in this effort a leading role.

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Recommendation At the 12th Meeting of the
EUMETNET SRNWP Programme held the 5th of October
2005 in Ljubljana, the NWS delegates ask the
EUCOS Manager to take the necessary measures in
order to make sure that the dissemination on the
GTS of the radiosonde data between the European
NWS will take place in BUFR code as encouraged by
the WWW Department of the WMO and as stipulated
by the 14th Session of the WMO-RA VI (5 -15
September 2005 in Heidelberg). the relevant
WMO document is not yet publicly available (21
Oct. 2005)
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Agenda

• The Network of Consortia
• Programme OPERA Compositing necessary
• EUCOS II (2007 2011) Action required
• Soundings BUFR besides TEMP
• STORMNET (Dominique)
• Model comparison
• Hub for high resolution precipitation
  observations
• Dissemination of hourly SYNOPs
• GPS Zenital Total Delays
• SRNWP PEPS
• Other points

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Agenda

• The Network of Consortia
• Programme OPERA Compositing necessary
• EUCOS II (2007 2011) Action required
• Soundings BUFR besides TEMP
• STORMNET (Dominique)
• Model comparison
• Hub for high resolution precipitation
  observations
• Dissemination of hourly SYNOPs
• GPS Zenital Total Delays
• SRNWP PEPS
• Other points

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Model comparison

• Three times in Council or ICWED Meetings our
  Directors have expressed the wish of a model
  comparison over Europe
• It has to be cheap. Thus only our basic models
  will be compared
• - LM (version run by the DWD)
• - Aladin-France (Toulouse)
• - HIRLAM (reference version at FMI)
• - UM (North-Atlantic / Europe version)

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Facts

• Today the Met Office compares daily the
  precipitations of these 4 models over
  Great-Britain (24-hourly accumulated)
• The Met Office has been chosen for this
  comparison as the task will consist in an
  extension of the above mentioned work

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Plan

• Verified will be from T0 to T48 at 6h
  intervals
• - precipitations
• - mean sea level pressure
• - 2m temperature
• - 10m wind
• Scores for precipitations
• - frequency bias
• - equitable threat score
• - log-odds ratio
• - Hansen-Kuipers skill score

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Results and Costs

• Results
• Monthly mean statistics will be calculated and
  published on the Met Office external internet
  site under password protection
• Costs
• The costs that will be submitted to the EUMETNET
  Council will amount to the salary of a scientist
  for 9 months per year

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Agenda

• The Network of Consortia
• Programme OPERA Compositing necessary
• EUCOS II (2007 2011) Action required
• Soundings BUFR besides TEMP
• STORMNET (Dominique)
• Model comparison
• Hub for high resolution precipitation
  observations
• Dissemination of hourly SYNOPs
• GPS Zenital Total Delays
• SRNWP PEPS
• Other points

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Data hub for high resolution, non GTS,24-hourly
accumulated daily precipitations

• The spatial density of the SYNOP precipitations
  is absolutely inadequate for the validation and
  verification of the very high resolution models
• Creation of a data hub for precipitation
  observations as already done by EUMETNET at the
  Met Office for the radar, wind-profiler and GPS
  ZTD data (one stop chop strategy)

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Situation today in Europe
Who is collecting today in Europe 24-hourly
accumulated high-resolution precipitation observat
ions? DWD (for Consortium COSMO) ECMWF (data
from the Members) EU Project ENSEMBLES EUROGRID
show-case (non yet accepted) Report in the SRNWP
web site http//srnwp.cscs.ch/Documents/HighResolu
tionPrecipitations.htm
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Candidates
Two very good candidates DWD - does already
this work for the COSMO Members - collects
24-hourly accumulated precipitations from some
4500 stations ECMWF - receives the data from
the Members and associated Members - collects
24-hourly accumulated precipitations from some
17000 stations - makes gridded analyses
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Agenda

• The Network of Consortia
• Programme OPERA Compositing necessary
• EUCOS II (2007 2011) Action required
• Soundings BUFR besides TEMP
• STORMNET (Dominique)
• Model comparison
• Hub for high resolution precipitation
  observations
• Dissemination of hourly SYNOPs
• GPS Zenital Total Delays
• SRNWP PEPS
• Other points

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Dissemination of hourly SYNOPs Action now
endorsed by EUCOS
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Agenda

• The Network of Consortia
• Programme OPERA Compositing necessary
• EUCOS II (2007 2011) Action required
• Soundings BUFR besides TEMP
• STORMNET (Dominique)
• Model comparison
• Hub for high resolution precipitation
  observations
• Dissemination of hourly SYNOPs
• GPS Zenital Total Delays
• SRNWP PEPS
• Other points

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GPS Zenital Total Delays

• At its 24th Meeting (April 2005), the EUMETNET
  Council adapted the E-GVAP Programme (EUCOS-GPS
  Water Vapour).
• DMI as Responsible Member (Henrik Vedel)
• The Met Office will run the data hub.
• The Met Office already collects radar data (rain
  and winds) and wind profiler data.
• gtgtgt the data hub strategy (one stop chop) begins
  to become effective

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Agenda

• The Network of Consortia
• Programme OPERA Compositing necessary
• EUCOS II (2007 2011) Action required
• Soundings BUFR besides TEMP
• STORMNET (Dominique)
• Model comparison
• Hub for high resolution precipitation
  observations
• Dissemination of hourly SYNOPs
• GPS Zenital Total Delays
• SRNWP PEPS
• Other points

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SRNWP-PEPS
PEPS-Grid with a grid spacing of 0.0625 (7
km) covering Europe
The ensemble size depends on location and every
PEPS grid point has its own probability
distribution
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Ensemble Products
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Maximum Ensemble Size
depends on main run and meteorological parameter
Maximum Ensemble Size
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Ensemble Mean
21/01/2005 00 UTC 06...30
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21/01/2005 00 UTC 06...30
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Cut-off times
SRNWP-PEPS runs operationally since December 2004
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• Validation
• Comparison with COSMO-LEPS
• Scoring probabilistic forecasts
• Ensemble Calibration
• Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) Raftery et.
  al., 2005
• BMA for precipitation

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Thank you to the contributing Weather Services
!
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Agenda

• The Network of Consortia
• Programme OPERA Compositing necessary
• EUCOS II (2007 2011) Action required
• Soundings BUFR besides TEMP
• STORMNET (Dominique)
• Model comparison
• Hub for high resolution precipitation
  observations
• Dissemination of hourly SYNOPs
• GPS Zenital Total Delays
• SRNWP PEPS
• Other points