Global Scenarios 2000

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Economic Outlook for the European Chemical
Industry Ralf GRONYCH
Trade and Economic Conference Brussels, 28
November 2002
Title Subtitle or slogan
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Economic Outlook 2002 / 2003 European Chemical
Industry
Dr. Ralf Gronych BASF AG - Results
from CEFIC Economic Outlook Task Force
1) Base Case Scenario Fragile recovery
or
2) Iraq Attack Scenario US Military strike 2003
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EU Growth Performance Chemicals
2002 Chemicals early starter - impulses from
inventory and net trade 2003 Moderate push from
industrial demand and more drive from exports
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Recessionary constellations 2003 at least for 2
quarters EU Chemicals growth 1.0 and US
Chemicals growth 1.3
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• EU outlook Sum up
• Crisis of confidence has undermined the global
  recovery - uncertainties are poisonous for
  the economy demand retrenchment
• Base Case No military attack - recovery will
  resume 2003 supported by US-recovery,
  lower interest rates, decline in oil prices
• EU Chemicals 2002
• - After lively start during 1. h. 2002 recovery
  began to falter
• - Stimulus mainly from inventory restocking and
  external trade
• - But sluggish performance during 2. h. in line
  with weak industrial demand
• EU Chemicals 2003
• - Growth regains momentum after phasing out of
  big uncertainties
• - Inventory push no longer effective but
  industrial demand with some rebound
• - More impulses from net exports to USA and Asia
• gt Mild optimism justified - but performance 2003
  will not be satisfactory
• gt Another year of sub par growth 2.4 vs. 4.4
  p.a trend