WP5: Investigation of the Institutional Changes and Solutions to Systemic Risk Management

1
WP5 Investigation of the Institutional Changes
and Solutions to Systemic Risk Management

• Ortwin Renn and Marion Dreyer
• and many others...
• DIALOGIK gGmbH Stuttgart, Germany

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Starting Point

• Food is more than food
• The challenges are lifestyle, diets,
• symbolic associations, trust, ...

3
Risk CharacteristicsThree challenges of risk
management

• Complexity in assessing causal and temporal
  relationships
• Uncertainty
• variation among individual targets
• measurement and inferential errors
• genuine stochastic relationships
• system boundaries (ednpoints, methods)
• ignorance
• Ambiguity in interpreting results (value
  differences, symbolic associations, fairness)

4
Modern Systemic Risks (OECD)

• Characteristics
• complex
• second order uncertainty
• often controversial
• open system boundaries
• Problems
• uncertain probabilities
• ripple effect beyond risk source
• high social mobilization

5
Novel Food Risks (part. GMOs)

• Characteristics
• Health impacts complex
• Little knowledge about probabilities
• Benefits are contested
• Often non-risk ambiguities
• Problems
• Perception of scientific dissent and controversy
• Low trust in regulatory system
• High social mobilization

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Our Approach

• Interdisciplinary Integration of Risk
  Assessment, Risk Perception, Risk Management and
  Risk Communication

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Five Subtasks

• Development of a common analytic framework and a
  protocol for the empirical research
• Review of national regulatory styles and
  processes (UK, France, Germany, Sweden, Hungary,
  EU)
• Integrated analysis of institutional practice
• Analysis of risk management needs in view of
  systemic risks
• Suggestions for improving risk management

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Preliminary structure of protocol

• Production modes
• conventional
• GMOs
• organic
• Case study classes
• Microbiological/pathogens (traditional, new)
• Chemical additives (essential, cosmetic)
• Other contaminants (such as Acrylamide)
• Nutritional risk such as obesity
• Interactions among the above

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Issues of interest

• Handling of uncertainty, complexity, and
  ambiguity
• Structure of Governance
• Framing of issue (protective goals)
• Early warning system
• Division of labor
• Link between assessment and management
• Rationale of risk reduction (precaution,
  risk-benefit, political pressure)
• Transparency of process
• Involvement of actors (economic, science, civil
  society, general public)
• Monitoring of food behavior and impacts
• Monitoring of compliance
• Dynamic development of risk governance
• Confidence and trust in regulatory institutions

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Question to the other WPs

• What type of information can risk assessers
  produce to improve risk management?
• Characzterization of uncertainty and complexity
• Early warning strategies
• Potential for ambiguity
• Suggestions for robust actions
• Need for monitoring and reporting
• What are the needs of the consumer and other
  stakeholders with respect to risk management and
  regulation?

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Procedure

• Marion Dreyer
• How do we want to address these questions?

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Quote

• What man desires is not knowledge but certainty
• Bertrand Russel
• Risk managers cannot produce certainty but can
  help individuals, groups and institutions to
  develop coping mechanisms to deal prudently with
  the necessary uncertainty that is required for
  societies to progress