Agenda

1
Agenda

• Opening Remarks M. Cleave
• Program Overview J. Kaye
• Earth Science Applications R. Birk
• Science Research and Products for CCRI
• Carbon, Ecosystem, Land Cover/Use Sciences
  D. Wickland
• Water Cycle J. Entin
• Climate Variability W. Abdalati
• Atmospheric Composition P. DeCola
• Computational Earth System Modeling R. Rood
• Summary J. Kaye

2
Atmospheric Composition Questions from the
Research Strategy
Variability
Forcing
Response
Consequence
Prediction
Precipitation, evaporation cycling of water
changing?
Atmospheric constituents solar radiation on
climate?
Clouds surface hydrological processes on
climate?
Weather variation related to climate variation?
Weather forecasting improvement?
Global ocean circulation varying?
Changes in land cover land use?
Consequences in land cover land use?
Transient climate variations?
Ecosystem responses affects on global carbon
cycle?
Surface transformation?
Changes in global ocean circulation?
Coastal region change?
Trends in long-term climate?
Global ecosystems changing?
Stratospheric ozone changing?
Stratospheric trace constituent responses?
Future atmospheric chemical impacts?
Ice cover mass changing?
Sea level affected by climate change?
Future concentrations of carbon dioxide and
methane?
Motions of Earth interior processes?
Pollution effects?
3
ESE National Applications
Carbon Management
Aviation Safety
Energy Forecasting
Public Health
Water Management
Disaster Preparedness
Coastal Management
Homeland Security
Agricultural Competitiveness
Air Quality
Community Growth
Invasive Species
4
Research Foci

• Stratospheric Ozone
• Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols
• Global and Regional Air Quality

5
Research Challenges

• Nature and timing of stratospheric ozone recovery
• The effects of changing atmospheric composition
  on climate
• The effects of climate change on stratospheric
  and tropospheric ozone, aerosols, and water vapor
• Sources and sinks for greenhouse gases and
  aerosols
• Implications of global chemical and climate
  change for regional air quality
• Processes which govern the amounts and pathways
  of pollution transported over hemispheric
  distances
• Effects of pollutants and climate change on the
  cleansing power of the atmosphere

6
Implementation Strategy

• Improved Prognostic Ability
• Ozone Depletion and Recovery
• Agents of Climate Forcing
• Global and Regional Air Quality

Characterize
March 10, 2000
Understand
Predict
March 13, 2000
March 15, 2000
7
Major Advances Thus Far

• Declining abundance of stratospheric ozone in the
  polar regions globally, much of which can be
  attributed to halogen chemistry and aerosol
  processes
• Antarctic ozone hole
• Frequent, large winter/spring reductions in the
  Arctic
• Global average decline of about 4 since the late
  1970s
• Concentrations of ozone destroying chemicals
  their breakdown products are slowly beginning to
  decrease in the troposphere and stratosphere
• In agreement with industrial production and
  estimated release
• In agreement with atmospheric chemistry models
• Amounts of greenhouse gases and aerosols are
  increasing globally
• But interannual variability and growth rates are
  not well understood in some cases
• Long-range transport of pollution affects global
  atmospheric composition
• Agricultural fires
• Industrial and urban pollution

March 10, 2000
March 12, 2000
March 13, 2000
March 15, 2000
8
Polar Ozone Loss
March 10, 2000
March 12, 2000
March 13, 2000
March 15, 2000
9
Climate Change andAtmospheric Composition
March 10, 2000
March 12, 2000
March 13, 2000
March 15, 2000
10
Trends in Atmospheric Chlorine
March 10, 2000
March 12, 2000
March 13, 2000
March 15, 2000
11
Intercontinental Transport of PollutionAssimilat
ed CO Data from MOPITT
Asia
Asia
North America
North America
March 10, 2000
March 12, 2000
March 10, 2000
March 12, 2000
800 MB
800 MB
Asia
Asia
North America
North America
March 13, 2000
March 15, 2000
March 13, 2000
March 15, 2000
800 MB
800 MB
12
Layers of elevated tropospheric ozone from
African fires
13
Interagency Linkages

• NOAA, NSF, DoE, DoD, EPA
• Satellite data validation and intercomparisons
• Trend quality ozone data from merged satellite
  data sets
• Trends in ozone-related and climate-related trace
  gases
• Field campaigns for studying tropospheric and
  stratospheric chemical, dynamical, and radiative
  processes

14
Major Contributions to Come

• Extension of the long-term record of
  high-precision global total column and profile
  abundance of ozone into the NPOESS period
• Quantification of the contributions of chemical
  and dynamical processes to global mid-latitude
  stratospheric ozone loss for improving
  predictions of polar and global ozone change
• First global observations to quantify
  stratosphere-troposphere exchange processes for
  improved predictions of atmospheric composition
• Identification of the chemical and dynamical
  processes that govern the amount and global
  distribution of water vapor in the upper
  troposphere and lower stratosphere where it has
  the greatest climate impact
• Baseline 4-D distribution and optical properties
  of aerosols in the global atmosphere
• First global survey of the vertically resolved
  distributions of tropospheric ozone and its key
  precursor species (H2O, CO, CH4, nitrogen oxides)
• Continue the record of changes in total solar
  irradiance over two solar cycles into the NPOESS
  period

15
Tropospheric Aerosol Measurements from Space
What we will learn.
What we learned.
2004-2008 Satellite Formation-Flying
1980-90s TOMS AVHRR

• First global picture of aerosols over land and
  ocean

• Impact of aerosols on clouds radiation budget.
• 4-D distribution of aerosols.

Late 1990s - 2004 MODIS MISR
2008-2014 Future Mission

• Separation of fine and coarse aerosols
• Man made fine aerosols biomass burning urban
  pollution
• Natural coarse aerosols soil dust and sea salt

• Role of black carbon aerosols on radiation
  budget.
• Improved global mapping of aerosol types.

16
Improving Global Pollution ModelsUsing Satellite
Data Tropospheric NO2
Space-based Measurement
Chemical Transport Model
17
Enabling Advances for Global Air Quality

• Enhanced temporal and horizontal resolution to
  observe rapidly evolving chemical events and
  quantify export from large source regions to the
  global atmosphere
• Spectral imaging from geostationary or L-1 orbit
• Advanced focal plane arrays enabling high dynamic
  range, radiation tolerant UV-NIR imaging
• high spatial resolution IR imaging at moderate
  temperatures
• Enhanced vertical resolution to observe ozone and
  aerosols layers, and quantify the chemical,
  transport and radiative consequences of these
  vertical structures
• Lidar observations from low Earth orbit
• High-power UV lasers
• Deployable telescope systems

18
Products for Decision-Makers
DECISION SUPPORT
19
Products for Decision-Makers

• Abundances and trends of halocarbons, both
  naturally occurring and anthropogenic, including
  chemicals and their replacements, regulated under
  the Montreal Protocol
• Global models that can be used in assessments for
  predictive and retrospective studies of
  atmospheric chemical processes and associated
  climate change
• Long-term trends of variability of solar
  irradiance, atmospheric ozone, temperature, and
  water vapor needed as input for global and
  regional climate assessment models
• Long-term data sets of surface UV flux for use by
  ecological and human health communities
• Integrated models of the effects of long-range
  transport of atmospheric pollutants and their
  precursors on regional air quality and on
  human/ecosystem health
• Improved capability for forecasting pollution
  episodes and identifying regions at risk and
  information to guide targeted reduction of
  emissions in at-risk regions.

20
Air Quality Decision Support

• Global-to-regional chemical/transport models and
  measurements provide comprehensive diagnostic to
  support local measurements
• EPA has recognized need to model/measure above
  the boundary layer and beyond urban scale areas
  where NASA has productive research
• Global/regional observations augment network of
  ground-based measurements
• Support to ground-based ozone monitors helps
  distinguish local/regional nature of ozone
  pollution episodes
• Support development and functionality of air
  quality models
• Boundary conditions and Emissions inventories
• States and regional planning organizations use
  models to assess effects of emissions control
  strategies and construct attainable State
  Implementation Plans
• Improved forecasts of ozone and pollution
  episodes allow regulatory mitigation before onset
  of episode to reduce build-ups
• Environmental Treaties and Pollution Conventions
• Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic
  Pollutants (POP)
• Protocol on Long-Range Transboundary Air
  Pollution on POP
• Submitted to Senate for ratification in April
  2002
• Assessment technique to monitor transboundary
  pollutants POP entering US
• Monitoring and evaluation of long-range
  transmission transport and destinations

21
Air Quality Decision Support
Formaldehyde (HCHO), produced from isoprene,
columns retrieved from a GOME orbit. The maximum
is attributed to high isoprene emission in the
Ozarks Plateau.

• Improved isoprene emission inventory derived from
  the GOME observations.
• High emissions in the southeast are due to
  deciduous forest.
• The GOME data indicate that the current inventory
  greatly underestimates isoprene emissions.

22
Global Observations Support Local Communities
April 7-9 Major dust storm originates over Gobi
Desert
Backward trajectory indicates dust plume probable
source of elevated PM10 in NC on April 20
Concentration, ug/m3
April 11-20 Remnants of dust storm move across
the US
Policy Significance EPA regulators can
evaluate exceptional events for effects on NAAQS
violations provide waivers Regulators can
account for foreign anomalies in determining air
quality attainment areas
TOMS Aerosol Index
Source Mintz and Szykman, USEPA/OAQPS, 2002
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Fulfilling CCRI Program Goals

• Enhance the science base
• Feedbacks between chemistry and climate
• Natural and anthropogenic atmospheric composition
  change and variability
• Modeling on global and regional scales
• Enhance observing monitoring systems
• Systems for global distribution of environmental
  parameters
• Long-term research monitoring systems (detection
  and attribution)
• Precision and stability for long term trends
  determinations
• Improve decision support tools
• Timely provision of ozone-, pollution-, and
  climate-related data sets
• Enhance exploratory research
• Novel measurement and analysis approaches,
  including global observing techniques

25
Agenda

• Opening Remarks M. Cleave
• Program Overview J. Kaye
• Earth Science Applications R. Birk
• Science Research and Products for CCRI
• Carbon, Ecosystem, Land Cover/Use Sciences
  D. Wickland
• Water Cycle J. Entin
• Climate Variability W. Abdalati
• Atmospheric Composition P. DeCola
• Computational Earth System Modeling R. Rood
• Summary J. Kaye