European SocioEconomic Classification Validation Conference

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European Socio-Economic Classification
Validation Conference

• Portuguese Statistical Office
• Lisbon, 19-20 January 2006

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Unemployment risks in four European countries an
attempt of testing the construct validityof the
ESeC scheme

• Antonio Schizzerotto, Roberta Barone
• Laura Arosio
•  University of Milano Bicocca
• Italy

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Aims of the study

• Testing the construct validity of the ESeC
  classification, by means of a comparative
  analysis aimed at detecting the variations across
  four EU-15 countries in the risks of unemployment
  experienced by incumbents of occupations
  belonging to different ESeC classes.
• Checking whether in the case of Italy different
  versions of Isco88.com- i.e. 2, 3 and 4 digit
  versions- affect the estimated disparities
  between ESeC classes in the risk of unemployment

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Four EU countries

• Denmark, as a representative of countries where
  the State playes an important role in the
  functioning of the whole society
• Germany and Italy, as representatives of
  countries where family has a crucial position in
  the institutional arrangements of the society
• United Kingdom, as a representative of countries
  that attribute great importance to the market in
  the workings of the society

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Three hypotheses to be tested

• ESeC is a valid social scheme
• The disparities between ESeC classes in the risk
  of unemployment should follow the same general
  pattern between countries that posses a market
  economy
• Despite this basic similarity, as a consequence
  of different institutional arrangements and
  labour market regulations across countries, one
  should observe between countries dissimilarities
  in unemployment risks displayed by each ESeC
  class.

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Data sources

• Waves from 1994 to 2001 of the European Community
  Households Panel (ECHP)
• Waves 1997, 1999 and 2001 of Ilfi (Italian
  Households Longitudinal Study)

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Methods

• Poisson regression of unemployment incident rates
  ratios
• Survivor functions in employment by ESeC classes

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ESeC classes and risks of unemployment
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Poisson Regression of Unemployment Incidence Rate
Ratios by ESeC Classes and Country in the period
1994-2001
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Average incidence rates () of unemployment (in
bold letters) and 95 confidence intervals by
ESeC classes and countries in the period
1994-2001
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Poisson regression of unemployment incidence rate
ratios by ESeC classes and country controlling
for gender, age, level of education and marital
status. ECHP waves 1-7
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Average incidence rates () of unemployment (in
bold letters) and 95 confidence intervals by
ESeC classes and countries in the period
1994-2001. Estimates from multivariate Poisson
regression model controlling for gender, age,
education and civil status.
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ESeC classes and the duration of employment
episodes
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Log-rank test of expected and observed events of
dismissal by ESeC classes and country and values
of ?2 test.
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The validity of ESeC class scheme and Isco 88
com versions according to Ilfi data
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ESeC classes size (in percentages) by Isco 88 com
version. Italy, 2001 (current occupation)
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ESeC classes size (in percentages) by Isco 88 com
version. Working episodes, Italy 1980-2001
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Poisson regression of unemployment incidence rate
ratios by Isco 88 com version. Italy 1980-2001
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Average unemployment incidence rates () by Isco
88 com version. Italy 1980-2001
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Employment relations and level of social
desirability of ESeC classes according to ILFI
data
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ESeC classes by type of contract, Italy,
1980-2001.
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Employment status of ESeC classes 1 and 2, Italy,
1980-2001.
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Scales score by ESeC classes , Italy,
1980-2001.