Domestic Policy Making

1
Domestic Policy Making

• Defining the Presidents Agenda where to find
  it. State of the Union messages, other public
  speeches. More specifically, OMB central
  clearance of legislation, action from agencies
  25,000 items every two years.
• Resources at the presidents disposal
• Internal time (really only about 18 months
  per term), information (where does it come
  from?), expertise (Washington experience
  important? Governors vs. senators?), and energy.
• External party support in Congress, public
  support and electoral margin, reputation.
  Interaction between all of these.

2
The Paradox of domestic policy making

• Policy cycles decreasing influence over the
  course of a presidential term (move it or lose
  it) and increasing effectiveness (or capacity).
  This presents a paradox of domestic policy
  making need to move quickly, when you dont
  know what to do. JFK, LBJ, Reagan moved more
  quickly than average, Nixon, Carter, Bush III
  more slowly. What explains the variation?
• The Presidents Agenda
• Timing most in the first year, tapers off after
  that. Start repeating old proposals that dont
  pass in the previous year. Kennedy aide quote.
• Size constrained by congressional limitations
  and executive branch capacity to generate new
  ideas.

3
Choosing issues

• Presidential goals
• -- Reelection. Obviously only applies to
  first-term presidents. Should the 22nd Amendment
  be repealed? -- Good policy. Ideological basis
  for much policy. Social Security reform and
  Bush. Conflict with reelection goal, so waited
  until after 2004. LBJ and Vietnam. Reagan and
  the budget in 1984.
• -- place in history. Reagan and the Cold War.
  Clinton and welfare reform. Bush and peace in
  the Middle East, but he will be defined by Iraq.
• Source of Issues
• Patterns which issues are hot at any given
  time? Education, war on drugs, energy,
  environment, war on terror.

4
Choosing issues, cont.

• Sources of issues. Where do they come from?
• Internal Campaign and platforms. The president
  and staff.
• External Congress is the biggest source of
  presidential ideas. Congress has to be willing
  to share credit. Events crises such as 9/11.
  Other examples? Executive branch from career
  bureaucrats. Public, interest groups, the media
  also can be the sources of ideas.

5
Setting the agenda

• Defining Alternatives who will gain, who will
  lose? Strategic choices JFK and civil rights,
  Reagan and Bushes and the Christian right. Dont
  want to hurt the rest of your agenda. But
  Clinton and gays in the military.
• Symbolic versus substantive. How to define
  symbolic policy? Light argues that presidents
  dont engage in much symbolic policy. Depends on
  how you define it. War on poverty, energy crisis
  (Carter moral equivalent of war), war on drugs,
  war on terror?

6
Programmatic choices

• Positive or negative (use the veto or not?)
  Ratio of vetoes to size of the agenda (LBJ
  largest, Ford the smallest). Veto is a low-cost
  way to have influence, but only up to a point.
• Administrative or legislative? Executive orders
  and agreements, dismissals and appointments,
  reorganization.
• Size (large or small policies?) Shift in recent
  years to smaller policies.
• New or old recycle old ideas. Fewer new ideas
  recently.
• Spending versus non-spending shaped by the
  state of the budget and the willingness to raise
  taxes.
• Selecting alternatives have to consider the
  economic, political and technical costs.

7
The no win presidency

• Increasing competition from Congress for scarce
  domestic policy space.
• Increasing fragmentation and complexity of the
  policy process in Congress
• Decreasing influence
• Increased oversight from Congress, the press, and
  the public.
• Change in issues to more difficult,
  constituency-less issues (Social security
  reform is a good example).

8
Future and Prospects for Change

• How to be successful as President (Paul Light)
• -- Move it or lose it. Learning can wait.
• -- Satisfice, dont maximize.
• -- Dont try too much innovation
• -- Avoid details
• -- Reelection comes first
• -- No cabinet government
• -- beware of the spokes of the wheel

9
Future and Prospects for Change, cont.

• The transformational president -- Russell Riley
• Takes a Neustadtian view of the presidency, but
  looks at the constraints that impel action rather
  than obstruct it.
• Transformational presidents are fundamentally
  about preservation Civil War, the New Deal (it
  was about economic recovery). Civil Rights
  only happened when it was necessary to restore
  peace.
• Transformational leadership also indicates
  presidential failure (of the previous president)
• Too much of a focus on change in our definition
  of presidential leadership. If we always focus
  on change, we will be disappointed.

10
Reforms

• Synchronized terms for the President and Congress
• Team ticket require straight ticket voting
  for President and Congress
• Give party leaders more influence over
  presidential nominations
• Strengthen parties in Congress and in campaign
  finance
• Question time for the President before
  Congress.
• Schlesingers Electoral College proposal.
• A six-year term with no term limits.
• Other ideas?